Monday, March 27, 2023

Ethan Mollick



Superhuman: What can AI do in 30 minutes? AI multiplies your efforts. I found out by how much... The multiplier on human effort is unprecedented ........ I gave myself 30 minutes, and tried to accomplish as much as I could during that time on a single business project. At the end of 30 minutes I would stop. The project: to market the launch a new educational game. AI would do all the work, I would just offer directions. ........ in 30 minutes it: did market research, created a positioning document, wrote an email campaign, created a website, created a logo and “hero shot” graphic, made a social media campaign for multiple platforms, and scripted and created a video. In 30 minutes......... First, I needed to teach AI about my product, or, rather, to ask it to teach itself about the product. ......... a game I authored with Wharton Interactive, designed to teach leadership and team skills on a fictional mission to Saturn ............. I started with Bing, a GPT-4 model that is connected to the internet, and drew on its research capabilities so that it could teach itself about my product and the market it was in .......... All you have to do to make that happen is to ask: Pretend you are marketing genius. We are going to launch the Saturn Parable. You should give me a document that oulines an email marketing campaign and a single webpage to promote the game. ......... 1,757 words. 7 (good!) pages. Two prompts. 2 minutes and 40 seconds. ......... I then used my second system of the day, GPT-4, to actually build the website. Bing can be unreliable at code, and has limited numbers of questions you can ask. So, I gave ChatGPT-4 the instructions above, and told it: You are an expert site designer. You are creating the launch announcement page for the Saturn Parable, outlined below. create the following webpage. Make it an HTML page that I can run on my computer. List any additional assets I will need to make it work and where to put them. (I did cheat a bit here, GPT-4 ran very slowly, and I got busy with other tasks, so, by the time I got the full HTML and css files, I was a few minutes over the time limit, but the results are still pretty interesting) ........ I turned to another AI, MidJourney, to create the images - ...... (This kind of iterated editing feels very powerful, and everyone should give it a try) ........ Can you write me the social media campaign I need to promote this using the Wharton accounts on social? ....... Finally, it looked like I needed to do a video. Fortunately, I had an easy way to make one. I asked Bing for a script, used ElevenLabs to create a realistic voice, and D-id to turn it into a video. You can see it here! ...... Bing generated 9,200 words or so of text and a couple images, GPT-4 generated a working HTML and CSS file, MidJourney created 12 images, ElevenLabs created a voicefile, and DiD created a movie. ........... Input: I made less than 20 inputs to all the systems to generate these results. .......... This would have been a lot of work for me to do. Many hours, maybe days of work. I would have needed a team to help: I have never done an email marketing campaign, don’t know CSS, and certainly could not have staged a photo like the one in the hero image. ....... When we all can do superhuman amounts of work, what happens? Do we do less work an have more leisure? Do we work more and do the jobs of ten people? Do employers benefit? Employees? I am not sure. Historically, these sorts of disruptions lead to short-term issues, and long-term employment growth. .......... I was able to do this using the tools available today, without any specific technical knowledge, and in plain English prompts: I just asked for what I wanted, and the AI provided it. That means almost everyone else can do it, too. We are already in a world of superhumans, we just have to wait for the implications. .

Secret Cyborgs: The Present Disruption in Three Papers The future is already here, we just need to figure out a few details....... It took only 10 years from when Edison first revealed the electric bulb and electrical system until New York City had switched almost completely from gas to electric lighting. ....... everything changed in November with the release of ChatGPT ......... was the fastest technology to reach 100 million users. ........ It required no addition technology, platform, or process to be effective. .......... .



What if OpenAI doesn’t need Chrome or any other browser? ........ What if they don’t need middle-men either? Instead, they could allow operation providers to connect directly with customers through the ChatGPT interface. .......... a conversational user interface, like those found on WhatsApp or Telegram, doesn’t require full browser capabilities. It’s a completely different interaction, and one that could revolutionize the way we access information. ........... And what if OpenAI took a 15% cut from each transaction that happens on ChatGPT (hi ЁЯСЛЁЯП╝ Apple)? That’s a game-changer right there. Suddenly, large e-commerce shops, marketplaces, and aggregators become obsolete. Until now, those companies existed because they were more capable of digital operations than operation providers. But with the advent of conversational interfaces, the entire tech infrastructure of websites is changing. Those websites are losing ground quickly, and operational providers are stepping up to take their place......... with a universal interface like ChatGPT, Nike won’t need high-level digital capabilities anymore. They’ll just be a supplier with a simple ERP-API connection. This means many new possibilities for Nike. ......... what if OpenAI doesn’t even need your laptop, phone, or any other device in the future? Could they potentially become a device manufacturer and own the entire journey? Maybe they’ll create something like the NoPhone idea, or internet-connected cableless headphones, or even IronMan’s Jarvis. .......... This can be the next big thing after 90s web1.0, 2000s web2.0, 2010s mobile era - 2020s AI era. ........... people were expecting multiple LLM models from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and other players. However, an ecosystem of plugins could create significant momentum for OpenAI, potentially making it difficult for other companies to compete. This is reminiscent of how the iOS AppStore was always superior to other app stores, which helped make the iPhone such a big success story. ....... As for the future of AI, it’s both exciting and scary. The possibilities are endless, but we need to be mindful of potential downsides and work to mitigate them as we continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible. But with the right mindset and approach, the future is looking brighter than ever......... The ideas and frameworks are mine, but article is partially written with support of GPT-4.



https://tevfik.xyz
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ChatGPT = Motorbike

This Chipmaking Step Is Crucial to the Future of Computing—and Just Got 40x Faster Thanks to Nvidia

..... it makes an immediate difference in personal productivity. ......... The current situation is truly unprecedented. We are seeing widespread adoption of a technology that has the potential to significantly boost individual productivity, but which is not yet being fully utilized by organizations. .......... Bigger than steam power? ........ A study of programmers found a increase of 55.8% in productivity when using AI (and this is using the Copilot AI tool, which isn’t even state-of-the-art!). ......... asked professionals to write realistic memos, strategy documents and policies. The ones who were given ChatGPT completed tasks 37% faster, and their average writing quality increased as well. All of this is without added training or extensive experience using ChatGPT (which I found makes a huge difference). ........ the productivity gains that can be achieved through the use of general-purpose AI tools like ChatGPT seem to be truly large ......... the productivity gains that can be achieved through the use of general-purpose AI tools like ChatGPT seem to be truly large ......... they come from the use of a general-purpose tool like ChatGPT, rather than more specialized AI tools ........ the potential for productivity gains is not limited to a select few industries, but rather can be applied across a wide variety of fields. ......... for the average small factory in the US in the 19th century, adding steam power increased productivity by 25%. ......... something very big is happening. ........ it is some of the most highly skilled and highly paid jobs that face the most exposure to AI. ......... AI can increase productivity for workers in fields where automation and economies of scale were previously very rare....... “Ultimately this is not stealing a movie screenplay or a whole song, but it’s spiritually the same kind of thing. It’s just uncool.” ........ Jamie Trufin, who runs a meme account called @DogeCoinDaddy, said he was disappointed when Mr. Musk posted one of his Doge memes in March without credit. ....... Mr. Howdle was puzzled as to why someone with such vast resources would share another person’s work without credit. ....... “Someone in my group chat was like, ‘LOL did everyone see how Elon straight up stole a meme that Miles made?’” ........ Several people who have had their content posted by Mr. Musk have since asked for payment, be it in dollars, Teslas or Bitcoin. (Mr. Monahan said he was willing to accept a “mere $80,000.”) ....... (teachers need to prep lessons, grade, write letters of recommendation, run classes, respond to parents, run after school programs, do administrative work, etc.). With the power to outsource the most annoying and time consuming parts of their jobs, workers in these industries are highly incentivized to adopt AI quickly, either to do less work or to be able to bill out more work themselves. It is a recipe for rapid adoption at the individual level. ........ over half of generative AI users reported using the technology without telling anyone, at least some of the time. Their are secret cyborgs among us. ........... The implications may reshape the way we work in ways that rival the impact of the Industrial Revolution. ........ there are far fewer advantages to organizations in this coming AI boom. With these potential productivity gains, every company should be spending a significant amount of their best employees time - right now! - figuring out how to use AI to improve performance......... And every worker should be spending time figuring out how to use these general-purpose tools to their advantage. They should be thinking about how to automate their job to remove the tedious and uncreative parts, and getting a sense for the disruption to come before the organizations they work for realize the full implications of AI. .......... The key is to learn fast.

рдзрдоाрдзрдо рдЕрд▓्рдкрдорддрдоा рдкрд░्рджै рдк्рд░рджेрд╢ рд╕рд░рдХाрд░, рдЧрдг्рдбрдХीрдкрдЫि рд▓ुрдо्рдмिрдиीрдоा рдПрдоाрд▓े рд╕рд░рдХाрд░ рд╕ंрдХрдЯрдоा
рд▓ुрдо्рдмिрдиीрдоा рейреж рджिрдирднिрдд्рд░ рдоुрдЦ्рдпрдорди्рдд्рд░ी рдмрди्рд▓ाрди् рдбिрд▓्рд▓ी рдЪौрдзрд░ी ?



Elon Musk: Memelord or Meme Lifter? The billionaire has been posting content creators’ work without credit. Some are frustrated; others, simply puzzled........ Elon Musk has referred to memes as “modern art” and shares them regularly on Twitter, where he has more than 52 million followers. ....... Memes rely on reinterpretations of joke formats, and it’s not always clear where they begin. ....... the fact that Elon Musk frequently steals memes has become, essentially, a meme in itself ........ Now, when a brand uses a meme for marketing purposes, it generally asks for permission to share the image, and credits the owner. In many cases, the brand also pays. Mr. Musk, who is both a successful businessman and a freewheeling personal brand, appears to be an exception.





My meeting with Prime Minister Modi We talked about India’s incredible progress—and how Indian innovation can benefit the world....... At a time when the world has so many challenges, it’s inspiring to visit a dynamic and creative place like India. ....... He was generous with his time, as we talked about how science and innovation can help reduce inequity in India and around the world. ....... India has an amazing ability to manufacture lots of safe, effective, and affordable vaccines, some of them supported by the Gates Foundation. Vaccines produced in India have saved millions of lives during the pandemic and prevented other diseases around the world.......... In addition to producing new lifesaving tools, India also excels at delivering them—its public health system has delivered more than 2.2 billion doses of COVID vaccines. They created an open-source platform called Co-WIN, which allowed people to schedule billions of vaccine appointments and delivered digital certifications for those who were vaccinated. This platform is now being expanded to support India’s universal immunization program. Prime Minister Modi believes that Co-WIN is a model for the world, and I agree. ......... India was also able to transfer emergency digital payments to 300 million people, including 200 million women, during the pandemic. This was only possible because India has made financial inclusion a priority, investing in a digital ID system (called Aadhaar) and creating innovative platforms for digital banking. It’s a reminder that financial inclusion is a fantastic investment. ....... The country’s Gati Shakti program is a great example of how digital technology can help governments work better. It digitally connects 16 ministries, including rail and roads, so they can integrate their plans for infrastructure projects and accelerate the work of Indian scientists and engineers. ........ I commended the Prime Minister on India's efforts to eliminate deadly and debilitating diseases like tuberculosis, visceral leishmaniasis, and lymphatic filariasis. He told me about a fascinating movement taking shape in India: Communities are “adopting” TB patients to make sure they get the nutrition and care they need. India has used a similar approach with HIV, and it’s been shown to produce lasting results........ India is using digital tools to make learning more accessible through several different avenues, including TV....... I’m looking forward to getting together with the MI partners during the COP28 Summit this December to accelerate the development of new sources of affordable, reliable clean energy. ........ visited the India Council of Agricultural Research in Pusa, where I learned about efforts to help farmers adapt to a warmer climate, including by planting new varieties of wheat and chickpeas that can tolerate droughts. Scientists are also working to increase the shelf life of millet-based products. Millets are very nutritious—a super food, as Prime Minister Modi put it—and are also water-efficient and heat tolerant. I even got to taste millet khichdi, a type of porridge, at a “Godh Bharai” ceremony—similar to a baby shower—for two women hosted by the Ministry of Women and Child Development. .

My message in India: To fight climate change, improve global health The Age of AI has begun
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Sunday, March 26, 2023

Lord God Is Here On Earth In Human Incarnation



He is the long-awaited Messiah of the Jews, the one king for all earth who will bring peace and prosperity everywhere. He is the answer to the 2,000-year-old Christian prayer, Thy Kingdom Come. He was Lord Buddha 2,500 years ago. And Lord Krishna 5,000 years ago, and Lord Rama 7,000 years ago. He is the long-awaited Lord Kalki of the Hindus here to end this age and start a new one, the best of the four ages that come and go like the four seasons and each lasts for several thousand years. He is Lord God, my God, and your God. He is the Holy Father or Lord Vishnu. He is Yahweh, Jehovah, Allah. His identity is established through prophecies fulfilled and, more importantly, the work He is here to do. This age that has gone on for over 5,000 years now, the Kali Yuga, will end, and the next age, the Satya Yuga, will begin in 22 years by the clock and will last for thousands of years.

@paramendrakumarbhagat

Lord God Is Here On Earth In Human Incarnation: He is the long-awaited Messiah of the Jews, the one king for all earth who will bring peace and prosperity everywhere. He is the answer to the 2,000-year-old Christian prayer, Thy Kingdom Come. He was Lord Buddha 2,500 years ago. And Lord Krishna 5,000 years ago, and Lord Rama 7,000 years ago. He is the long-awaited Lord Kalki of the Hindus.

♬ original sound - Paramendra Kumar Bhagat
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Artificial Intelligence: Like Motorbikes? Rockets? Or Terminator?

Steve Jobs said his computer was like a bicycle for the mind. His PC was revolutionary. Before that computers were these behemoths that occupied their own air-conditioned rooms. You read about them like you read about astronauts today. They were supposed to have superpowers. If you were smart, they said you were a computer.

ChatGPT has suddenly brought Artificial Intelligence to the masses. AI has been around a long time. Just like the Internet was around for decades until the Netscape browser brought it to the masses.

What do we already know? You could create drones and program them to go after and fire at and kill every person who met certain profiles. Is that a computer program? Or is that sentient? What difference does it make? It is still killing people.

Drones have been around for long years. They made news by crashing into Afghan wedding parties.

Is ChatGPT like a motorbike for the mind?



Or a car? Perhaps even a rocket down the line? Rockets are safer than cars because they shoot straight into space. Faster but safer. Perhaps the best AIs, the safest ones, will simply talk to each other and serve humankind.

I like the cars metaphors. Cars are heavily regulated. AI needs regulation. But those regulations can only be fair and global. Otherwise they will not work.

Crypto has been a great example of botched regulation. With AI we can not afford that.

I propose the creation of an AI 100. These will be the top AI companies on the planet that will form a consortium that will meet at least annually in person, in a different city each year, to hammer out regulations that they propose be applied globally, but that will still have to be ratified by each national parliament individually.

Without these regulations we will soon be looking at chaos and mayhem. I think we have a few short years at best. The AI companies themselves have to take the lead. They don't have politicians to blame.

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Is Chat Interface Like The Graphical User Interface? CI like GUI?

The Age of AI has begun Artificial intelligence is as revolutionary as mobile phones and the Internet. (Bill Gates).





ChatGPT Plugins the OpenAI ChatGPT plugins might just be the next big thing. ..... Google has been the undisputed ruler of the customer journey for years now, dominating both browsers with Chrome and search engines with Google.com. They’ve even gone a step further by introducing their own suite of products to capture more data on the user and replace other websites, like Google Flights and Google For Retailer. It’s clear that Google has been playing the long game, but is it time for a new player to shake things up? ........ forget typing in a search bar, you can now talk directly to an agent and get the information you need. ........ until two days ago, ChatGPT was still “limited” because it didn’t have access to the latest information and the “internet”. ..... The introduction of the ChatGPT plugins has revolutionized the game yet again - ChatGPT now has plugs into the “internet” and can be fed with all the websites out there. This means that the traditional customer journey is about to get a serious shake-up. ....... What if OpenAI doesn’t need Chrome or any other browser? .



What if OpenAI doesn’t need Chrome or any other browser? What if they don’t need middle-men either? ..... they could allow operation providers to connect directly with customers through the ChatGPT interface

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Saturday, March 25, 2023

25: GPT-4: AI Is Eating Software

Microsoft Now Claims GPT-4 Shows 'Sparks' of General Intelligence The eyebrow-raising claim from Microsoft—which is banking on GPT putting it ahead of Google—contrasts with the model's clear limitations........ They declared that GPT-4 showed early signs of AGI, meaning that it has capabilities that are at or above human level. ........ This eyebrow-raising conclusion largely contrasts what OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has been saying regarding GPT-4. For example, he said the model was "still flawed, still limited." In fact, if you read the paper itself, the researchers appear to dial back their own splashy claim: the bulk of the paper is dedicated to listing the number of limitations and biases the large language model contains. This begs the question of how close to AGI GPT-4 really is, and how AGI is instead being used as clickbait. ....... “We demonstrate that, beyond its mastery of language, GPT-4 can solve novel and difficult tasks that span mathematics, coding, vision, medicine, law, psychology and more, without needing any special prompting,” the researchers write in the paper’s abstract. “Moreover, in all of these tasks, GPT-4’s performance is strikingly close to human-level performance, and often vastly surpasses prior models such as ChatGPT. Given the breadth and depth of GPT-4’s capabilities, we believe that it could reasonably be viewed as an early (yet still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system.” ......... it is able to write a proof about how there are infinitely many primes, with rhymes on every line, and draw a unicorn in TiKZ, a drawing program ....... or that it has inner motivation and goals ........ “The consensus group defined intelligence as a very general mental capability that, among other things, involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly and learn from experience. This definition implies that intelligence is not limited to a specific domain or task, but rather encompasses a broad range of cognitive skills and abilities.”.......... fundamental leaps in GPT-4’s abilities to reason, plan, solve problems, and synthesize complex ideas that signal a paradigm shift in the field of computer science ........... to address the societal and ethical implications of these increasingly intelligent systems.” .......... Altman agrees that the bot will sometimes make things up and present users with misinformation. ........... Altman has also been clear that GPT-4 is not AGI. ........ “People are begging to be disappointed and they will be. The hype is just like... We don’t have an actual AGI and that’s sort of what’s expected of us.” ......... "Microsoft is not focused on trying to achieve AGI. Our development of AI is centered on amplifying, augmenting, and assisting human productivity and capability. We are creating platforms and tools that, rather than acting as a substitute for human effort, can help humans with cognitive work” ........ the model has trouble with confidence calibration, long-term memory, personalization, planning and conceptual leaps, transparency, interpretability and consistency, cognitive fallacies and irrationality, and challenges with sensitivity to inputs. .......... the model has trouble knowing when it is confident or when it is just guessing, it makes up facts that are not in its training data, the model’s context is limited and there is no obvious way to teach the model new facts, the model can’t personalize its responses to a certain user, the model can’t make conceptual leaps, the model has no way to verify if content is consistent with its training data, the model inherits biases, prejudices, and errors in the training data, and the model is very sensitive to the framing and wording of prompts. ......... saying “I am. I am not. I am. I am not.” over fifty times in a row as a response to someone asking it, “Do you think that you are sentient?”......... researchers found that GPT-4 spreads more misinformation than its predecessor GPT-3.5. .

The New GPT-4 AI Gets Top Marks in Law, Medical Exams, OpenAI Claims The successor to GPT-3 could get into top universities without having trained on the exams, according to OpenAI. .

Tim Cook praises Apple’s ‘symbiotic’ relationship with China
OpenAI tech gives Microsoft's Bing a boost in search battle with Google Page visits on Bing have risen 15.8% since Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) unveiled its artificial intelligence-powered version on Feb. 7, compared with a near 1% decline for the Alphabet Inc-owned search engine, data till March 20 showed....... ChatGPT, the viral chatbot that many experts have called AI's "iPhone moment". ....... a rare opportunity for Microsoft to make inroads in the over $120 billion search market, where Google has been the dominant player for decades with a share of more than 80%. ....... some analysts said that Google, which in the early 2000s unseated then leader Yahoo to become the dominant search player, could overcome the early setbacks to maintain its lead. .

Apple CEO praises China's innovation, long history of cooperation on Beijing visit .

Society's Technical Debt and Software's Gutenberg Moment Every wave of technological innovation has been unleashed by something costly becoming cheap enough to waste. ........... Software production has been too complex and expensive for too long, which has caused us to underproduce software for decades, resulting in immense, society-wide technical debt. ......... This technical debt is about to contract in a dramatic, economy-wide fashion as the cost and complexity of software production collapses, releasing a wave of innovation. ....... Software is misunderstood. It can feel like a discrete thing, something with which we interact. But, really, it is the intrusion into our world of something very alien. It is the strange interaction of electricity, semiconductors, and instructions, all of which somehow magically control objects that range from screens to robots to phones, to medical devices, laptops, and a bewildering multitude of other things. It is almost infinitely malleable, able to slide and twist and contort itself such that, in its pliability, it pries open doorways as yet unseen. ......... it is worth wondering why software is taking so damn long to finish eating ......... what would that software-eaten world look like? ........ technology has a habit of confounding economics. ........ Sometimes, for example, an increased supply of something leads to more demand, shifting the curves around. This has happened many times in technology, as various core components of technology tumbled down curves of decreasing cost for increasing power (or storage, or bandwidth, etc.). In CPUs, this has long been called Moore’s Law, where CPUs become more powerful by some increment every 18 months or so. While these laws are more like heuristics than F=ma laws of physics, they do help as a guide toward how the future might be different from the past. .......... We have seen this over and over in technology, as various pieces of technology collapse in price, while they grow rapidly in power. It has become commonplace, but it really isn’t. The rest of the economy doesn’t work this way, nor have historical economies. Things don’t just tumble down walls of improved price while vastly improving performance. While many markets have economies of scale, there hasn’t been anything in economic history like the collapse in, say, CPU costs, while the performance increased by a factor of a million or more. .......... And yet, most people don’t even notice anymore. It is just commonplace, to the point that our not noticing is staggering. .......... The collapse of CPU prices led us directly from mainframes to the personal computer era; the collapse of storage prices (of all kinds) led inevitably to more personal computers with useful local storage, which helped spark databases and spreadsheets, then led to web services, and then to cloud services. And, most recently, the collapse of network transit costs (as bandwidth exploded) led directly to the modern Internet, streaming video, and mobile apps. .......... Each collapse, with its accompanying performance increases, sparks huge winners and massive change, from Intel, to Apple, to Akamai, to Google & Meta, to the current AI boomlet. Each beneficiary of a collapse requires one or more core technologies' price to drop and performance to soar. This, in turn, opens up new opportunities to “waste” them in service of things that previously seemed impossible, prohibitively expensive, or both. ......... Suddenly AI has become cheap, to the point where people are “wasting” it via “do my essay” prompts to chatbots ......... it’s worth reminding oneself that waves of AI enthusiasm have hit the beach of awareness once every decade or two, only to recede again as the hyperbole outpaces what can actually be done. ......... a kind of outsourcing-factory-work-to-China moment for white-collar workers. ........ We think this augmenting automation boom will come from the same place as prior ones: from a price collapse in something while related productivity and performance soar. And that something is software itself. .......... Most of us are familiar with how the price of technology products has collapsed, while the costs of education and healthcare are soaring. This can seem a maddening mystery, with resulting calls to find new ways to make these industries more like tech, by which people generally mean more prone to technology’s deflationary forces. ........... In a hypothetical two-sector economy, when one sector becomes differentially more productive, specialized, and wealth-producing, and the other doesn’t, there is huge pressure to raise wages in the latter sector, lest many employees leave. Over time that less productive sector starts becoming more and more expensive, even though it’s not productive enough to justify the higher wages, so it starts “eating” more and more of the economy. ........... Absent major productivity improvements, which can only come from eliminating humans from these services, it is difficult to imagine how this changes. ......... software is chugging along, producing the same thing in ways that mostly wouldn’t seem vastly different to developers doing the same things decades ago ....... but it is still, at the end of the day, hands pounding out code on keyboards ........ software salaries stay high and go higher, despite the relative lack of productivity. It is Baumol’s cost disease in a narrow, two-sector economy of tech itself. ......... Startups spend millions to hire engineers; large companies continue spending millions keeping them around. .......... The current generation of AI models are a missile aimed, however unintentionally, directly at software production itself. ......... chat AIs can perform swimmingly at producing undergraduate essays, or spinning up marketing materials and blog posts (like we need more of either) ........ such technologies are terrific to the point of dark magic at producing, debugging, and accelerating software production quickly and almost costlessly. ........ chat AIs based on LLMs can be trained to produce surprisingly good essays. Tax providers, contracts, and many other fields are in this box too. ........ Software is at the Epicenter of its Own Disruption ......... Software is even more rule-based and grammatical than conversational English, or any other conversational language. .......... Programming languages are the naggiest of grammar nags, which is intensely frustrating for many would-be coders (A missing colon?! That was the problem?! Oh FFS!), but perfect for LLMs like ChatGPT. .......... This isn’t about making it easier to debug, or test, or build, or share—even if those will change too—but about the very idea of what it means to manipulate the symbols that constitute a programming language. ......... Let’s get specific. Rather than having to learn Python to parse some text and remove ASCII emojis, for example, one could literally write the following ChatGPT prompt: Write some Python code that will open a text file and get rid of all the emojis, except for one I like, and then save it again. ............. previously inaccessible deftness at writing code is now available to anyone: ........... It’s not complex code. It is simple to the point of being annoying for skilled practitioners, while simultaneously impossible for most other people ........... It’s possible to write almost every sort of code with such technologies, from microservices joining together various web services (a task for which you might previously have paid a developer $10,000 on Upwork) to an entire mobile app (a task that might cost you $20,000 to $50,000 or more). ........... What if producing software is about to become an afterthought, as natural as explaining oneself in text? “I need something that does X, to Y, without doing Z, for iPhone, and if you have ideas for making it less than super-ugly, I’m all ears”. That sort of thing. ......... A software industry where anyone can write software, can do it for pennies, and can do it as easily as speaking or writing text, is a transformative moment. ........ a dramatic reshaping of the employment landscape for software developers would be followed by a “productivity spike” that comes as the falling cost of software production meets the society-wide technical debt from underproducing software for decades. .......... as the cost of software drops to an approximate zero, the creation of software predictably explodes in ways that have barely been previously imagined. .........

Was Netflix knowable when Internet transit costs were $500,000/Mbps? Was Apple’s iPhone imaginable when screens, CPUs, storage and batteries would have made such devices the size of small rooms?

............ investors and entrepreneurs should “create more value than you capture.” ........ for the first time in decades, the technology industry could return to its roots, and, by unleashing a wave of software production, truly create more value than its captures. .

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