Wednesday, October 13, 2010

A Sophisticated Like Button

ReadWriteWeb: I Like to Dislike! Facebook Introduces Comment Voting, Threads: now allows users to up- and down-vote other comments ..... comments are not only threaded, meaning each user can reply directly to another user, but more information is shown on each person, including their job and company, or network, and their comment record. The system also allows for up- and down-voting ..... Each comment begins with one point and a vote up or down raises or lowers that rating by a point. .... your comment stays at the top, so you can manage your comment and conversation ..... the move certainly encroaches on the territory of commenting systems like Disqus, Echo and Intense Debate. .... with more active posts rising to the top and negating the usual newest to oldest order. Allowing users to vote on posts and on individual comments could really alter the entire dynamic of Facebook.
It was only a matter of time. I knew something like this was bound to happen. The like button was going to be more sophisticated. And it is getting there. The open graph just became more useful. Facebook comments just became more useful. Now it has become more possible to navigate updates that might collect hundreds of comments. This is called scaling.
The Facebook Blog: More Ways to Stay Secure: If you have any concerns about security of the computer you're using while accessing Facebook, we can text you a one-time password to use instead of your regular password. ..... Simply text "otp" to 32665 on your mobile phone (U.S. only), and you'll immediately receive a password that can be used only once and expires in 20 minutes. ..... the ability to sign out of Facebook remotely

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Millions And Millions

Image representing Steven Carpenter as depicte...Image via CrunchBaseSteven Carpenter

TC Teardown: 13 Ways To Get To $10 Million In Revenues (Part I)
cheap to start but expensive to achieve scale
TC Teardown: 13 Ways To Get To $10 Million In Revenues (Part II)
media, paid service, and physical commerce ..... search, gaming, social networks, and new media ..... marketplace, video, commerce, retail, subscription, music, lead generation, hardware and payments ..... Video ad rates are typically amongst the highest in online media ($15-$20 CPM) ..... audio ads are not actionable, and display ads often get ignored (music apps tend to stay open in a browser tab in the background). ..... we will see an explosion of innovative hardware companies over the next few years
Steven Carpenter has done a good job of demystifying here, perhaps too good a job. I think the money is in the mystery. A business is much more than the sum of its parts. And there is that creative part, the human element to the sauce. Each startup really is unique, although it is perfectly plausible for a Steven Carpenter to come along and box them up into a few swift categories.

"It can be done over and over again," Sam Walton said. He was talking about reinventing retailing, of course.

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Offshoring The Wind Harvesting: Google Wind

Vestas wind turbine, Dithmarschen.Image via Wikipedia
Christian Science Monitor: Will Google wind power project harm wildlife? Depends on location.: The mid-Atlantic venture would position wind turbines at least 12 to 15 miles offshore, which means they would not be easily visible from land. ..... 6,000 megawatts .... equivalent to five nuclear power plants .... “It is so much better than each of the wind generators building their own transmission lines all over the seabed.”
Nokia did not start out a cellphone company. Nokia as a company has gone through many incarnations, in fact so many that its founders will not be able to recognize the Nokia of today. Google might have started out as a search engine, but these forays far and wide are welcome. This not only makes corporate sense, but this is also Google being a good citizen. This is Google turning Don't Be Evil into an active verb.
Wall Street Journal: Google’s Wind Project Got Lift From Vail Ski Trip: a planned giant wind farm designed to run 350 miles along the Eastern seaboard .... laying undersea cables to connect the wind turbines to electrical grids on land ..... 1,200 to 2,000 wind turbines
Google Earth. Google TV. Google Car. Google Wind. I say bring it on.
Google Blog: The wind cries transmission: offers a solid financial return ..... both good business and good for the environment ..... equivalent to 60% of the wind energy that was installed in the entire country last year ..... superhighway for clean energy. .... stronger and steadier winds offshore. .... Mid-Atlantic region ..... offers more than 60,000 MW of offshore wind potential in relatively shallow waters that extend miles out to sea. .....

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Marissa Mayer: Location, Local

Over the years Marissa Mayer has been more visible than Google's two founders. She is a delight. She wears the rare top female engineer hat effortlessly, cheerfully. But this move is not just about one person, however visible, or one company, however big, even as big as Google.
Bloomberg: Google Executive Marissa Mayer Takes New Role in Location, Local Services: “Marissa has made an amazing contribution on search over the last decade, and we’re excited about her input in this new area in the decade ahead,” the company said.
Location is hot and heavy. Local is hot and heavy. Ends up most people don't travel. The local is important. The here and now is important. Guess what, the here and now is important also to those who do travel.

The coming years belong to the smartphone, and there location is the starting point of the experience. And what is location about but local bars and eateries and the like?



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Microsoft-Oracle: Unlikely Alliance Against Android

Larry EllisonImage by Oracle_Photos_Screenshots via FlickrPutting My Money On Larry Ellison
Microsoft: Android Cry Baby

Larry Ellison never saw the free browser as a threat. The browser allowed people to access his database software directly from the web. The web interface was good. And it is not like he is about to get into the smartphone market, unless he is just trying to help out his best friend Steve Jobs, but that would be taking friendship a little too far. Maybe the smartphone is yet another way for people to access database software. I think that should be the thought.
JavaWorld: Last Google Glassfish Post: defeat Microsoft everywhere, they are reeling .....Android momentum will stall, unless Google engages with Oracle around Java, never has their interests more closely aligned, and the fight over mobile Java is a secondary still to enterprise java, for everyone other than Microsoft, so why fight among family, which is what is going on with the lawsuit around Android, but it can change, and both companies definitely need to reach out to each other, and stop giving Microsoft breathing room to stay alive
How long before Google and Oracle can no longer stay out of each other's ways? Great Recession fueled cheap money is making it possible for a lot of the behemoths to borrow and buy, looks like.

This is partly Larry Ellison making it loud and clear that he just bought Sun and so Java is now his stuff. But there is so much suing going on, people who stay skeptical of software patents seem to be making much sense right about now. It is so easy to step on each other's feet with software.

Obviously I have not gone to the technical bottom of these legal wranglings but I think at some level it is obvious all the tall companies are not going the innovation and the market forces route. Instead they are suing each other. Maybe that is what consolidation means. But one wishes the word still were innovation.

This mess is not looking good, not good at all. The smartphone needs to explode. It should not be snuffed out. The smartphone is a paradigm shift just like the PC was a paradigm shift. The smartphone is a bigger paradigm shift than the PC was. The big players of the PC era should not think of the smartphone as an afterthought. The smartphone is about to become the center of the computing universe.

I hope all the lawsuits cancel each other out and the companies get back to work.

Google and Oracle talking would be a good idea. Let's jaw, not war.

Good Morning Silicon Valley: Will Android come out black and blue after Oracle deal with Big Blue? Plus more Oracle vs. HP: In the previous episode of the Oracle-Google fight, Google last week had asked a judge to throw out Oracle’s lawsuit, filed in August, which alleges that Android is infringing on patents related to Java. That’s not the case, Google said, as expected, and also called Oracle hypocritical. In the latest related development, Oracle and rival IBM yesterday announced that they had reached an agreement that would shift Big Blue’s Java development from the Apache Harmony platform to OpenJDK, which is Oracle’s platform. Because the Android OS is based on Java built on the Apache platform, InfoWorld says the Oracle-IBM deal could undermine Android and force Google to throw resources at Apache.

Appolicious: The smartphone wars enter the courtroom: Motorola last week shot across Apple’s bow with three patent infringement suits .... the growing patent infringement derby. ..... Motorola has accused Apple of violating 18 patents. Motorola claims that Apple has infringed on its patents with the iPad, iPhone, iPod touch and some Mac computers. ..... “revenge time” for Motorola, the inventor of mobile phones, which has taken a drubbing at the hands of latecomer Apple ..... Horacio Gutiérrez, Microsoft’s chief intellectual property lawyer, as saying the spate of actions is a result of the collision of the cellphone and computing worlds. .... “Apple faces a lawsuit from Nokia over its iPhone technology and has taken legal action of its own against the Finnish cellphone maker. Apple is also part of a wider legal challenge to Google’s Android smartphone operating system, having filed a lawsuit against handset maker HTC over its use of the software. That echoes Microsoft’s action against Motorola over its use of Android software and Oracle’s action against Google over the alleged use of its Java technology in Android.” ... the thicket of lawsuits could slow the development of the smartphone business
Windows Phone 7 offers nothing wonderful to consumers: Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 should prove to be about as appealing to consumers as, say, John Deere sports cars.

New York Times: Oracle and I.B.M. Agree to Java Pact: The accord covers the Java software typically used in everything from data centers to Web programs. But it does not extend to the set of smaller Java tools used in cellphones and other mobile devices. .... Oracle’s dispute with Google casts shadows over Java’s future in general. For example, Google, Mr. Lea said, has more people working on OpenJDK projects than Oracle, and the lawsuit restricts communications between the litigating parties. .... “By far the most eyes are still on the Android issue,” Mr. Lea said. “Oracle and Google have to start communicating with each other.”

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Smart Cars Should Talk To Each Other


Toyota Prius IIIImage via WikipediaRobert Scoble's Not Google Car
Self Driving Google Car

Never mind that this might materialize towards the end of the decade and not any time soon, but I had an idea. Cars that drive themselves are not good enough. They should be able to talk to each other. You should be able to set your journey and have your car talk to other cars to form trains along the highway. So if you are programming your car to take you on a 10 hour ride on the freeway, other cars also going the same length and your car should be able to form a train in the middle lane, perhaps 10 cars per train. And of course this would be an intelligent train. It would be seeing the non train cars and keeping watch on them. The train will do what it takes to avoid accidents, up to and including breaking up. And if only all those cars are 100% electric, we will have solved a major, major problem. 100% electric cars by the end of the decade is not that ambitious.

Software just got wheels. Or perhaps it is the other way round.

You know what would be even better? 100% electric bullet trains that move at perhaps 500 miles per hour. Or even 300. Trains are way more efficient than cars. If you could have such train service that connect all major cities, and have metro trains inside all cities, that still leaves room for 100% electric taxi cabs. And rental cars. And even cars. But I think the heavy lifting should be for trains.

How about people work to design smart trains? What would be your idea of a smart train?

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Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Etsy, GroupOn, Zynga

Image representing Zynga as depicted in CrunchBaseImage via CrunchBase
Steven Carpenter

On Etsy
While eBay saw its marketplace growth stagnate at just over $1 billion a quarter, I see several areas Etsy must optimize just to pass $100 million in business
On GroupOn
No other startup has gone more quickly from launch to $1 billion+ in valuation except YouTube (12 months), which Groupon achieved in 16 months .... Groupon is achieving considerable revenue growth across all measures: more customers, higher deal prices, and rapidly expanding markets. ..... makes its model highly attractive (hence, every week seems to bring new copycats). .... Groupon gets more of its traffic from Facebook than any other site, including Google ...... the company does not hold any physical inventory and its customer acquisition costs are so low. ..... Groupon has raised a total of $171 million to-date, employs more than 200 people, and serves 52 markets. Its next biggest competitor, LivingSocial, has raised $49 million, employs about 50 people, and serves 14 markets. .... Groupon is far ahead. The data suggests that Groupon is not yet feeling the impact of all the new entrants. ..... There is no reason to believe that this concept couldn’t be extended to virtually any category or service provider.
On Zynga
Like YouTube, Twitter, and Groupon, social gaming pioneer, Zynga is a member of the “fastest from founding to $1B valuation” club, having earned its membership in just 19 months. .... over half of Facebook users are playing Zynga’s games .... Farmville alone now attracts over 100 million unique users per month, just 10 months after it launched. ..... PayPal said last week that Zynga is now its 2nd largest customer by volume ..... “Zynga Nation” ...... the beneficiary of a once-in-a-decade tectonic shift in the Internet landscape. ..... Zynga accounts for 31% of all active applications on Facebook, more than 2 times Facebook’s own apps ..... The company also continues to sit on a warchest of its largely unspent $219 million in venture capital that it was able to raise because of its rapid success. ..... Zynga’s incredible hockey stick growth of the past 2 years appears to have come to an end .... Games are the No. 1 application in the Apple App Store. Collectively mobile games are a $3B+ a year business
These three companies, especially Zynga and GroupOn, have grown very, very rapidly. Their rise has been dizzying. I have a feeling we will see more and more rapid rise companies. So when I ask, which is the next Zynga, I am not necessarily talking of the social gaming space. Actually, I am not. I am asking, what could be that next space that will create that next rapid rise company?

A lot of the action is moving to the mobile web space.

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