Friday, September 24, 2010

Scoble Chimes In On Angelgate

Scoble, Longhorn EvangelistImage via Wikipedia
Robert Scoble: The secret hell of tech industry angel investors: when the story broke, I thought it was just Mike being bombastic and trying to make something out of a dinner that he wasn’t invited to..... Mike stumbled into a story that has a ton of undercurrents. ..... The angel investor world is getting HYPER competitive .... Entrepreneurs are seeing access to lots of capital. ..... 10 people just are not going to have enough market power to do anything really naughty although it’s good to nip this problem in the bud, which is why I now support Arrington’s stance.
The early stage investment world is seeing major churn, but I would like a much larger geographical spread, not just on the continent, but globally. It will happen.
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Angelgate Rolls On

Ron ConwayImage via Wikipedia
TechCrunch: Ron Conway Drops A Nuclear Bomb On The Super Angels [Email]:The world of startups would be a better place if you spent less time complaining about deal structures, terms, vc’s, and valuations etc and the cars you drive, and just helped entrepenuers build their companies..... These startups are binary …they succeed or fail so why waste time on deal structures, terms, vc’s, and valuations etc and just help entrepenuers build their companies..... I am tired of seeing you and engaging in idle chit chat and not sharing my true feelings. ..... .where no one was there to speak up for the interests of the entrepenuers.

Mike Arrington's mischievous post on super angels apparently has been gathering momentum. The first few VCs to speak up said Arrington was merely selling newspapers. Ron Conway, on the other hand, is blowing wind Arrington's way. Stop colluding, he says. This might just be a warm-fuzz thrown Arrington's way since the dude has been profuse in his past praises of Conway, deserved for the most part. Or perhaps the conversation is not over. More people will chime in over the next few days.

My take home word from Conway's email: binary.

Super Angels, The Churning VC Game, And Catch Up Tech

In The News

Bloomberg: ARM Rises as Oracle’s Ellison Says Company May Buy a Chipmaker:Ellison, 66, said at Oracle’s annual meeting in San Francisco yesterday that “you’re going to see us buying chip companies” to add to its resources in computer hardware.

TechCrunch: “WiFi On Steroids” Is A Go. Now Google (Or Someone) Just Has To Build It. Please Do. Fast.:the FCC’s 700Mhz spectrum auction .... “white space” ..... White space is the name given to the vacant airwaves between television channels, airwaves which are increasingly open as people move to cable and other methods of getting television. These airwaves have the potential to carry wireless data at speeds and distances that would make today’s WiFi seem antiquated. That’s why the white space has earned the nickname “WiFi 2.0″ or “WiFi on steroids”. ...... gives technology companies a way to innovate outside of the realm of wireless carriers or broadband providers ..... white space WiFi blankets cities and people can use WiFi phones instead of the the ones tied to carriers.

Google Public Policy Blog: FCC vote on white spaces lays promising foundation for “Wi-Fi on steroids”: y sets the stage for the next generation of wireless technologies to emerge .... will put better and faster wireless broadband connections in the hands of the public. ...... the beginning, and not the end, of crafting forward-looking spectrum policy
Nature: Relativity comes down to Earth: time speeds up if you climb just one rung up a ladder, and slows down if you travel at just 36 kilometres per hour

Time: Feeling Alone Together: How Loneliness Spreads: For some people, feelings of isolation are sharpest during times that are in fact defined by togetherness — celebrations or the holidays .... or perhaps especially in a crowd — it's possible to feel unbearably alone...... happiness, obesity and quitting smoking — can propagate like a wave throughout a network of people..... The effect was strongest among those in close relationships ..... one lonely person could influence whether his friend's friend's friend felt lonely. ..... it really is a fundamental human motivational state very much like hunger, thirst or pain." ..... loneliness is more like an indicator of the social health of our species on the whole — a temperature reading, if you will, of how well- or not so well-integrated we are as a population....... we are, by nature, a social species; we feed off our interactions with one another and thrive when we are inspired, challenged and supported by one another ....... passed on through feelings of mistrust and negativity..... lonely individuals think negatively about other people People may be spreading their negative feelings simply by frowning or making other unpleasant facial expressions, making hurtful remarks or even adopting uninviting body postures. . ... Over time, lonely people find themselves banished to the periphery of their social networks ...... It's not necessarily the number of connections people have that matters but the quality of them. Communities that encourage regular interaction among its members

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Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Larry's Antics


My reading of the situation is and has been for a few years now that Larry Ellison believes his industry - data software - is going through what he calls a consolidation phase, and hence his relentless buying spree. His promise to the customer has been you will get simpler, integrated software. And now, after buying Sun, he is doing what his best friend Steve Jobs has been doing for a long time now: software hardware integration.

Bill Gates left the scene, but Larry never stopped competing. Larry want to do what Jobs did. He wants to surpass Microsoft in market value, and he is on his way.
New York Times: Oracle Growth Plans Worry Rivals and Customers: its larger ambitions — to supply just about all the technology, software and hardware, that businesses might need .... sales of $26.8 billion last year and hints of an annual revenue goal of $100 billion ... acquired a staggering 66 companies .... They bought every company we deal with. ...... Oracle’s sales representatives have earned a fearsome reputation as hard-line negotiators determined to squeeze customers. ...... complete systems rather than requiring customers to cobble together the parts. ...... Fusion ..... data center conquest plans clear ..... 60 percent of the food coming from within 100 miles of the city. .... paid $1,800 to attend the conference and runs her own software consulting business in Portland, Ore ..... a signal that Oracle intends to get aggressive and pursue growth
In The News

eWeek: Java Creator James Gosling: Why I Quit Oracle: “For the privilege of working for Oracle, they wanted me to take a big pay cut,” Gosling said. .... “In my job offer, they had me at a fairly significant grade level down,” he said. ..... All of our authority to decide anything evaporated.” ..... “My job seemed to be to get up on stage and be a public presence for Java for Oracle. I’m from the wrong Myers-Briggs quadrant for that,” he said. .... Gosling already had the sense that Oracle was “ethically challenged” .... they believed “Oracle would be more savage, IBM would make more layoffs.” .... Gosling says he felt the hand of Larry Ellison in nearly all the decisions affecting Java ..... Gosling paints the picture of Ellison being like a sports magnate from his sister city, Al “Just Win Baby” Davis, owner of the Oakland Raiders, who continually hires coaches and drafts talent only to run the show himself. ...... although Gosling said he never had direct dealings with Ellison, “He’s the kind of person that just gives me the creeps,” he said. “All of the senior people at Sun got screwed compensation-wise. Their job titles may have been the same, but their ability to decide anything was just gone.” ....... Java is bigger than any single vendor.”

ArsTechnica: Oracle surprises with new Sparc chip launch: Now christened the Sparc T3, the new processor will power a collection of Solaris-based T-series servers for Oracle, and will ship in 30 days.

The Washington Post: Huffington Snags NY Times Star

Wired: Writer for iPad Aims For Focus, Beauty, Simplicity:When you put the application in “Focus Mode,” it doesn’t even have spellcheck or cut-and-paste. Instead, it’s all about textual production — writing this phrase, this sentence, this word at this moment. As the creators note, “the idea is to activate it when you get stuck, blinding out everything else.”

New York Times: Google Campaign to Build Up Its Display Ads:More than 90 percent of Google’s revenue comes from text ads, and analysts say that Google’s stock is down about 17 percent this year because investors are waiting for the company’s second act.

For the Unemployed Over 50, Fears of Never Working Again: Of the 14.9 million unemployed, more than 2.2 million are 55 or older .... more than a third of people not yet retired plan to work beyond age 65, compared with just 12 percent in 1995. .... “That’s what I spent my whole life in pursuit of, was security,” Ms. Reid said. “Until the last few years, I felt very secure in my job.” ..... was let go from her $80,000-a-year job. ..... Her husband worries that she isolates herself and that she does not socialize enough. ..... “A job is more than a job, you know,” Mr. Mielock said. “It’s where you fit in society.” .... how to age-proof their résumés and deflect questions about being overqualified. ..... For now, she stitches together an income by gardening for neighbors, helping fellow church members with their computers, and participating in Internet surveys for as little as $5 apiece.

Just Manic Enough: Seeking Perfect Entrepreneurs: a hypomanic episode..... symptoms include grandiosity, an elevated and expansive mood, racing thoughts and little need for sleep.... He can work 96 hours in a row. .... a thin line separates the temperament of a promising entrepreneur from a person who could use, as they say in psychiatry, a little help. ..... just crazy enough .... “If you’re manic, you think you’re Jesus. If you’re hypomanic, you think you are God’s gift to technology investing.” ..... Instead of recklessness, the entrepreneur loves risk. Instead of delusions, the entrepreneur imagines a product that sounds so compelling that it inspires people to bet their careers, or a lot of money, on something that doesn’t exist and may never sell. ..... Next Zuckerberg Syndrome — the urge to find another Mark Zuckerberg before he starts another Facebook. ...... He does not socialize. He no longer reads books, nor does he watch TV or movies. He works from 8 a.m. until 10 p.m., seven days a week. ....... Jobs is also routinely described as a despot and control freak with a terrifying temper .... He is a gifted software engineer but a terrible driver. (“I hit things,” he says.) He’s perfectly at ease negotiating with V.C.’s, but has had just one girlfriend .... “I want to build the game layer on top of the world.”

The Long View of China’s Currency: The renminbi itself rose 21 percent against the dollar from 2005 to 2008, and the trade deficit continued to widen. .... A stronger renminbi will help China’s people — many of whom are hungry for better living standards, to judge by the recent labor strikes — buy more goods and services, and it will also help the rest of world produce more...... economies, like battleships, tend to turn slowly ..... But exports probably matter more for American jobs anyway, given that low-end toy manufacturing in Guangdong Province isn’t moving to Alabama or Michigan. ...... $10 billion of gross domestic product equals about 80,000 jobs on average. So every extra $10 billion of goods sold to China is like its own little stimulus program. ...... not all the items on the United States’ forbidden list are truly matters of national security.

TechCrunch: Zynga Moves 1 Petabyte Of Data Daily; Adds 1,000 Servers A Week:social gaming giant Zynga is one of the fastest growing tech companies of all time .... 10 percent of the world’s internet population (approximately 215 million monthly users) has played a Zynga game. .... more than 1,200 full time employees and includes 13 game studios.

CNet: Google News turns 8 amid news industry in flux:the site is currently driving 1 billion page views to news publishers' Web sites per month and Google currently operates 72 separate editions of Google News in 30 different languages....Google, raised in the church of data ..... the rise in "news spam," SEO-bait articles often written by low-paid freelancers that are designed mostly to surface within Google, rather than inform, educate, or entertain readers with coherent writing..... "content mills" like Associated Content and Demand Media are churning out short news-related pieces of content by the thousands in hopes of driving traffic to their sites

Google Blog: Google News turns eight
TechCrunch: Now that the Recession Officially Ended….Whatever Happened to that Other Shoe?
Business Insider: The Next Shoe Drops At The New York Times: Now Circulation Revenue Is Starting To Decline

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$400 Million, $140 Billion And 2020

Image representing Netflix as depicted in Crun...Image via CrunchBase
Wall Street Journal: A New Digital Battlefield: The entire business of selling episodes of TV shows through services like Apple's and Amazon's is expected to generate only $407 million in 2010 ..... U.S. consumers and advertisers will spend about $143 billion on traditional TV advertising and subscriptions in 2010
I expect these two numbers to have changed places by 2020. Everything is going online. TV is not going to be a separate medium for too long. The internet will eat up and digest the TV. But we are going to have to move to universal 100 MB plus broadband for that to happen.
Wall Street Journal: Web Start-Up Values Soar:In an echo of the 1990s dot-com boom, some investors also are giving lofty valuations to Web firms that have no revenue and that barely have a product out..... Quora ...... Blippy ...... Foursquare .... last year, when Twitter Inc. was valued at $1 billion during a round of funding, up from $95 million in mid-2008 when it raised a previous round of funding .... Many investors won't recoup their investments ...... SecondMarket, which operates an exchange where investors can trade the stocks of closely held start-ups ...... "There's a big disconnect between the public market and the private market" ..... Deal-of-the-day site Groupon Inc., for instance, was founded in 2008 and quickly brought in consumers eager to tap its discounts. By April when it received a $135 million investment from Russian investment firm Digital Sky Technologies Ltd. and venture firm Battery Ventures, Groupon was valued at about $1.35 billion.

Blockbuster Nears Bankruptcy:a milestone in consumers' shift away from brick-and-mortar video stores to films delivered by mail and the Internet

Netflix, Studio Reach Streaming Deal
A New Digital Battlefield:TV shows are emerging as a new front in the war over digital media between Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc., amid their ongoing battles over electronic books and online music..... Several executives said those rentals could be a step toward a world where people see less advertising or stop paying for cable subscriptions—two principal sources of revenue...... Apple accounts for 57% of transactions in Internet video-on-demand movies, on a number-of-sales basis, and 53% of the TV shows market ...... The entire business of selling episodes of TV shows through services like Apple's and Amazon's is expected to generate only $407 million in 2010 ..... U.S. consumers and advertisers will spend about $143 billion on traditional TV advertising and subscriptions in 2010

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Super Angels, The Churning VC Game, And Catch Up Tech

Michael Arrington, famous blogger, and Tariq K...Image via WikipediaThere's web services - aka dot coms - and then there's clean tech, bio tech, nano. Dot coms have become much less pricey. Anyone can rent server space with Amazon. Pretty much anyone can write code.

"You can learn the basics of Ruby in two days," a techie told me a few days back. "And it is all on Google, all the material is free."

Clean tech, bio tech and nano are still capital intensive.

But the biggest returns are in what I am going to call catch up tech. This is the world of microfinance and global infrastructure projects. An annual 10% return is the floor when it comes to these opportunities. If the wise guys - and they were guys - on Wall Street had known to pump excess capital a few years back into catch up tech rather than housing, we might have skipped the pain of the past few years. You pump up housing value, and you sell mortgage based securities to each other. That was like setting the house on fire starting from the basement.

Mike Arrington, TechCrunch: So A Blogger Walks Into A Bar…
Master Of 500 Hats: Fire in The Valley, Fire in My Belly... and Yes, Mike, I Have Stopped Beating My Wife.
Fred Wilson: Collusion
Quora: Who are the Super Angels that Michael Arrington is talking about in his 9/21/10 Techcrunch post, "So a Blogger Walks into a Bar..."?
Silicon Alley Insider: Hooray For Mike Arrington

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Monday, September 20, 2010

Gmail Bug

Hollywood, Silicon Valley, DC, Wall Street, American Hinterland

Image representing Mark Zuckerberg as depicted...Image via CrunchBase
TechCrunch: Zuckerberg, ‘The Social Network’ And The Rise Of The Terror Nerd: With The Social Network, Hollywood has made an artful attempt at taking the inferiority, fear and awe that it feels towards Silicon Valley and projecting it onto the cold, calculating (and fictional) Zuckerberg; “Creation myths need a devil,” spoken by Rashida Jones’ Marylin Delpy, is the most resonant line in the film..... people who understand how to code and build websites have power ..... Sorkin himself told New York Magazine, “I am not a fan of the Internet.” ..... Mark Zuckerberg is the perfect scapegoat for the whole damn thing, being someone who stole Hollywood’s cultural influence and built a half a billion strong distribution network it could only dream of, delivering a brutal blow to its business model as a side note.

NY Mag, NY Times, All Things D, CNet.

9/11 was Hollywood not doing its job. The Gulf Oil Spill was Hollywood not doing its job. When the political pundits were saying because the Cold War has ended and history has ended, it was Hollywood's job to point out otherwise. America always has had to violently tussle with chunks of autocracies. The fact that most of the Arab world was not democratic should have had alarm bells ringing, but did not.

America as a population should not have had to go through the trauma of a Gulf Oil Spill to start thinking seriously in terms of a zero emissions future. That emotional jolting should instead have and should come from Hollywood.

By that measure this Facebook movie is a stark failure. It does not even begin to fathom what it takes to build an epoch changing company. To say it is just fiction is not a good excuse.

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