Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Another Trillion To Buy Real Estate?

World Trade Organization accession and membershipImage via WikipediaI have not followed the Fed's corner of the house as closely as the president's corner, but I get the impression the Fed put a trillion into real estate already and is about to put another trillion into it. This sounds like madness.

The wise guys on Wall Street cooked up nefarious schemes that inflated real estate prices, created a bubble, brought the economy down, and now the Fed is supposed to keep those artificially inflated prices propped up?

Why? Because a broken political system will not allow the president to instead pump a trillion into the 2010 version of the New Deal, but it will allow the unelected Fed chair to play around with a trillion dollars?

Many have speculated this is the Roman empire collapsing. Those who the gods seek to destroy, they first make them mad.

I am for a second stimulus bill of perhaps a trillion poured into drastic job creation.

And all the work of creating the global institutions for the next phase of globalization is yet to be done. There can be no real recovery without that.

Those who say this is like the Great Depression are right. Where they get it wrong is when they don't face the fact that now the entire world is a stage. It is one world. The reason people acted surprised when the bottom fell out was because they had their US goggles on. Put on world goggles. Then you can see.

Can a democracy make its people lose weight? That is the challenge. Instead the democracy continues to gorge on French fries and tea parties. Some hard choices are going to have to be made.

BusinessWeek

Germany At 20: Special Report
Germany's Growth: New Rules, Old Companies: As most developed nations stumble in the race against emerging nations, here's how Germany has succeeded in keeping skilled labor working in good jobs....($3.23 trillion) gross domestic product .... , labor market measures begun in 2003 under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder made it easier to hire and fire workers, and Germany's Mittelstand have proved nimble competitors ...... German labor unions gave up wage increases in return for job security. ..... The Mittelstand companies, which typically employ fewer than 500 workers, comprise more than 70 percent of German workers and contribute roughly half of the country's GDP. The Mittelstand also embodies the German approach to business practice—paternalistic, consensual, conservative, and arguably more effective over the long haul than what Germans sometimes dismiss as American-style cowboy capitalism...... Mittelstand companies have emerged as successful models in an era of globalization—agile creatures darting between the legs of the multinational monsters..... Rather than firing workers, companies reduced hours, saving almost half a million jobs. ..... a system of worktime accounts that enabled employees to work fewer hours without a reduction in pay, in exchange for promising to work more hours without a salary increase when business picks up..... By May of this year, unemployment in Germany was at 7 percent, a 17-year low..... they prefer bank loans to selling bonds or issuing stock ..... it was wage restraint over the last 10 years that's responsible for Germany's success

Goldman Sachs Says U.S. Economy May Be ‘Fairly Bad’: “A fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1 1/2 percent to 2 percent rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to an outright recession.” ...... The Fed bought $1.7 trillion worth of Treasury and mortgage debt in a program that ended in March. The purchases helped push mortgage rates to historic lows. ... Bernanke said Oct. 4 that restarting large- scale asset purchases would probably spur growth




China Hardens Opposition Over Yuan Gains, Tells EU to Back Off: “Europe shouldn’t join the choir” ..... If we increase the yuan by 20-40 percent as some people are calling for, many of our factories will shut down and society will be in turmoil.” ..... Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega warned of a global “currency war.”

Book Excerpt: The Mesh

India Can Help Obama Reach Export Goal: The last time U.S. exports doubled in five years was 1981-1986, when Ronald Reagan was President—and Japan, not China, was the economy Americans feared most. ..... China, India, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico. ..... the Indian economy is the world's fourth-wealthiest—based on purchasing power parity—after the U.S., Japan, and China. ....... the country will keep growing at close to 10 percent in the next decade ..... "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the U.S.?" Some 76 percent of Indian citizens responded affirmatively. ..... Americans are better-liked in India than almost anywhere else in the world ........ Today the U.S. is the world's breadbasket. In India you will find Washington State apples as well as California almonds and pistachios ..... India now hopes for a trillion-dollar upgrade of roads, bridges, power plants, harbors and more. .... Carter was the last President to travel to India within two years of taking office

Volcker Says Nations May Face Prolonged Unemployment: the U.S. and other developed nations face the prospect of protracted joblessness. ..... “This has not been an ordinary recession,” Volcker, 83, said today in a speech in Toronto. It’s “very difficult to find a sector in the American economy that has any spark to it” ..... the Chinese are stuck with dollars and we’re stuck with indebtedness.”

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Google Chrome OS Netbook Assault Imminent

Google Chrome IconImage via WikipediaApple had its iPhone moment. Google had its Android moment. Apple had its iPad moment. There will be a ton of Android tablets, but Google's equivalent of the iPad moment, I believe, we are about to see: the arrival of the Chrome OS netbooks. The netbooks will aim at the tablet - where's the keyboard? - and they will take aim at Windows: why is the machine taking so long to startup?
PCR: Google preps Chrome OS netbook assault: a number of Chrome OS devices to arrive from Samsung, Acer, Asus, Toshiba and HP..... people looked to the web for most of their entertainment, communication and productivity tasks..... the lightweight, low power and low cost netbook ...... a spring clean in order to improve OS start times....."Android is very focused on the best mobile experience there is, Chrome is very focused on the best web experience there is." ..... the minimalist school of design ..... Chrome OS powered netbooks will be available for under $400. ..... 10-inch
There is talk this last decade belonged to Google and Apple, this next belongs to Facebook. I think this next belongs to Facebook and Google. To have both Android and the Chrome OS is pretty phenomenal. Google is running strong still. Windows, on the other hand.

I want the Chrome OS netbook to be super light, super cheap, and I want the screen to be big enough. This has to feel like a mobile device, something you feel okay carrying around. And there should be a small smartphone like screen that you see even when you have it shut. You should be able to place calls. Or a tablet-netbook two in one. Or a three in one: smartphone, tablet, netbook. I want my Chrome OS close, I want my Android closer.


Chrome OS Site: Chrome OS To Arrive In October: actual device sales will be much latter on in the year, most probably just before the Christmas holidays.

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Facebook Needs To Revamp Email Next

NicoImage by Ian Muttoo via Flickr
Mark Zuckerberg: The Facebook Blog: Giving You More Control
Facebook's revamping the Groups feature is pretty fundamental. This has been a demand a long time. People have been saying that Facebook thinks people have only one social graph, the truth is people have many social graphs. I have not used the feature yet, just read about it, but looks like Facebook now lets you have your many social graphs.

And the download feature is Facebook nuking Diaspora. This is a preemptive strike and a pretty big one too. On the other hand now suddenly there is room for some smart aleck startup to do something pretty phenomenal. This is Diaspora's death sentence or its godsend. Is the glass empty or full? I don't know. Let Diaspora decide.

What got my attention though is what is missing. Facebook has not yet revamped its email program. It needs to. 2010 is the year of The Dreaded Inbox. The original app of the computing experience has become a monster. And I think Facebook is uniquely positioned to tackle this huge problem.

How about giving every Facebook user a Facebook email address? So I might get paramendra@facebookmail.com. And give each user three inboxes. Inbox 1 is for people who are in my social graph. Inbox 2 is for people who are not necessarily in my social graph, but they are on Facebook and they are sending the email while they are logged into Facebook. Inbox 3 is for people who are neither here nor there, as in they are maybe sending you email from their Gmail account, maybe.

That simple, doable step would solve a lot of inbox problems for a lot of people.

Email has to be a scalable experience. Right now it has stopped being an experience for most people. And so people go hide. They hide on Twitter, and Quora, and, yes, Facebook.

Inbox 2 perhaps should have bells and whistles. You can email someone not in your social graph, but when you do, you are giving them permission to take a look at your full profile for perhaps one day of opening the email.

This is akin to the priority inbox concept. All emails are not the same. All human beings are equal, but that does not apply to emails.

I think the best part of the new Groups feature for Facebook might be that people now have the option to create robust Facebook work groups, and Facebook can now go Facebook Enterprise. Do you smell money?

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Father Of India Dot Com Craze Gives A Thumbs Up To America

Esther's been a member of our board for some t...Image via Wikipedia

Rajesh Jain is the guy who started the dot com craze in India when he sold his dot com for I believe over a hundred million dollars to a local big shot Indian company. Rajesh got his education at Columbia University in New York City. Then he went back to India and has been doing big things since.

The first time I met Esther Dyson was at a NY Tech MeetUp. And she mentioned Rajesh Jain's work in that very first conversation.

Crisis: Opportunity For Greatness For Obama

Rajesh and I have exchanged emails over the years. I like to drop by his blog when I can. He is on my must meet in person some day list.

Rajesh' blog post today is one that many Americans could benefit from reading.
Rajesh Jain: The Secret Sauce of the US: The entrepreneurial energy in the US is still alive and kicking. That is what creates companies like Google, Apple, Cisco and Facebook. ..... There is that inherent belief that the world needs a better mousetrap - and they are the ones to do it.

Bloomberg: India's Economy May Expand 9.7% This Year, More Than Forecast, IMF Says: “Low reliance on exports, accommodative policies, and strong capital inflows have supported domestic activity and growth,” the IMF said in the report. “The rapid pace of domestic activity, evidenced by rapidly rising inflation, led the central bank to increase the repo policy rate.”

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