The Web Is Dead? Not So Fast

Wired: The Web Is Dead. Long Live The Internet: the World Wide Web is in decline, as simpler, sleeker services — think apps — are less about the searching and more about the getting...... You’ve spent the day on the Internet — but not on the Web. And you are not alone. ..... the top 10 Web sites accounted for 31 percent of US pageviews in 2001, 40 percent in 2006, and about 75 percent in 2010. ..... semiclosed platforms that use the Internet for transport but not the browser for display. ...... a world Google can’t crawl, one where HTML doesn’t rule. ...... First Java, then Flash, then Ajax, then HTML5 — increasingly interactive online code — promised to put all apps in the cloud and replace the desktop with the webtop. Open, free, and out of control. ..... the machine-to-machine future that would be less about browsing and more about getting. ...... the Internet has meant the breakdown of incumbent businesses and traditional power structures ..... about 35 percent of all our media time is now spent on the Web — but ad dollars weren’t keeping pace. ..... TV — which also accounts for 35 percent of our media time, gets nearly 40 percent of ad dollars. ..... The Web is, after all, just one of many applications that exist on the Internet ..... The applications that account for more of the Internet’s traffic include peer-to-peer file transfers, email, company VPNs, the machine-to-machine communications of APIs, Skype calls, World of Warcraft and other online games, Xbox Live, iTunes, voice-over-IP phones, iChat, and Netflix movie streaming. ...... the general-purpose browser. They use the Net, but not the Web. Fast beats flexible. ....... “It is a mistake to think of the Web browser as the apex of the PC’s evolution.” ...... the rise of junk-shop content providers — like Demand Media — which have determined that the only way to make money online is to spend even less on content than advertisers are willing to pay to advertise against it. This further cheapens online content, makes visitors even less valuable, and continues to diminish the credibility of the medium. ....... Every time you pick an iPhone app instead of a Web site, you are voting with your finger: A better experience is worth paying for, either in cash or in implicit acceptance of a non-Web standard. ..... While Google may have controlled traffic and sales, Apple controls the content itself. ..... the business forces lining up behind closed platforms are big and getting bigger. This is seen by many as a battle for the soul of the digital frontier..... Ecommerce continues to thrive on the Web, and no company is going to shut its Web site as an information resource. .... The Internet is the real revolution, as important as electricity; what we do with it is still evolving.

This Wired article has created quite a ruckus. But most people who have talked about it have missed the second part of the headline. Long live the internet. Even so, I think the iPhone is going to be a blip in the long run. The small screen web is going to feel like the big screen web, only on a smaller screen. Walled gardens have limited utility. The browser itself will morph.

I think this web is dead thinking is reflective of the hard economic times we are in. This thinking will evaporate after a turn around.

What's problematic about the diagram above is it is not counting video to be part of the web experience. The truth is video is part of the web experience that is exploding. The primarily text based web might be on the wane, but then the web was always meant to be a multi-media experience.

The biggest problem with the graph above is that it deals with percentages. The internet has been exploding. A 10% share today is not the same as a 40% share 10 years ago or a 70% share 15 years ago. I have a hard time believing the browser's share in terms of total number of users has not grown every year.

The open web is worth fighting for. Free trade is worth fighting for.

But, yes, the real product is the internet. The browser is just one way to access that internet. It remains my favorite way. I can't wait for HTML 5 to go mainstream.

A Fragmenting Web?
Is The Mobile Web In A Category Of Its Own?
Information Overload And Twitter
YouTube And Online Movies
HTML 5 Browser Wars

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1500 Hits

Image by Randy Stewart via Flickr

1300 is better than 1000. 1500 is better than 1300. Although 1500 can't be the final figure for today. We have a few more hours to go.

Looks like Fred Wilson gave me about 80 page hits today. More important, he gave me a link. Enough of such high quality links, and you start showing up more often in the search results, my primary source of traffic.

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A Fragmenting Web?

Image via Wikipedia

The web is not dying, (Dead Web?) and it is not fragmenting in an alarming way. What is happening can be compared to biological evolution over long periods of time. The end result is a richer ecosystem. The same is happening to the web. (Is The Mobile Web In A Category Of Its Own?)

The iPhone apps do not take away from the web. They might be these little, walled gardens but those little, walled gardens - most of them - do interact with the web in limited ways if not fully.

The birth of the web was like the Big Bang. There is no going back. I am not worried.

The Economist: The Future Of The Internet: A Virtual Counter-Revolution: The internet was a wide-open space, a new frontier. For the first time, anyone could communicate electronically with anyone else—globally and essentially free of charge. Anyone was able to create a website or an online shop, which could be reached from anywhere in the world using a simple piece of software called a browser, without asking anyone else for permission. The control of information, opinion and commerce by governments—or big companies, for that matter—indeed appeared to be a thing of the past. ........ the “cloud” is code for all kinds of digital services generated in warehouses packed with computers, called data centres, and distributed over the internet. ...... Only Apple’s latest iSomethings seem to inspire religious fervour ...... it appears to be balkanising, torn apart by three separate, but related forces. ..... governments are increasingly reasserting their sovereignty ...... big IT companies are building their own digital territories, where they set the rules and control or limit connections to other parts of the internet ...... network owners would like to treat different types of traffic differently, in effect creating faster and slower lanes on the internet. ...... Before the internet and the world wide web came along, this balkanised model was also the norm online. For a long time, for instance, AOL and CompuServe would not even exchange e-mails. ..... had telecoms firms, for instance, suspected how big it would become, they might have tried earlier to change its rules ...... Individuals have access to more information than ever, communicate more freely and form groups of like-minded people more easily. ...... In a more closed and controlled environment, an Amazon, a Facebook or a Google would probably never have blossomed as it did. ...... China’s “great firewall”. The Chinese authorities are using the same technology that companies use to stop employees accessing particular websites and online services. ........ allowed domain names entirely in other scripts. This makes things easier for people in, say, China, Japan or Russia, but marks another step towards the renationalisation of the internet. ...... Try viewing a television show on Hulu, a popular American video service, from Europe and it will tell you: “We’re sorry, currently our video library can only be streamed within the United States.” ..... “net neutrality”..... one of the internet’s founding principles: that every packet of data, regardless of its contents, should be treated the same way, and the best effort should always be made to forward it...... “the Tony Soprano vision of networking”... If operators were allowed to charge for better service, they could extort protection money from every website. ..... large internet firms like Amazon and Google have long redirected traffic onto private fast lanes that bypass the public internet to speed up access to their websites. ....... net neutrality has become far more politically controversial in America than it has elsewhere. This is a reflection of the relative lack of competition in America’s broadband market. .....“A technology is invented, it spreads, a thousand flowers bloom, and then someone finds a way to own it, locking out others.” ...... Android, Google’s smart-phone platform, which is less closed than Apple’s, is growing rapidly and gained more subscribers in America than the iPhone in the first half of this year. Intel and Nokia, the world’s biggest chipmaker and the biggest manufacturer of telephone handsets, are pushing an even more open platform called MeeGo. And as mobile devices and networks improve, a standards-based browser could become the dominant access software on the wireless internet as well.... There is just too much value in universal connectivity .... just as world trade can collapse if there is too much protectionism.

This article just tells me why Android is so important and why net neutrality is worth fighting for.

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