Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Plate Discipline



It’s a fact of entrepreneurship that for every good idea, there are a thousand bad ones. And sometimes it can be hard to tell the difference. Personalized shampoo. Customized baseball bats. Customized dog food. These were all ideas I pitched to my co-founder Reed Hastings. I thought all these ideas were better than the one that would eventually become Netflix.

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Monday, April 10, 2023

10: ChatGPT, GPT-4

How the 1223 Mongol invasion of Europe still impacts us today Mongol forces never fully conquered the continent, but they played a key role in its historical development. ........ Thanks in part to their unrivaled horsemanship and archery skills — Mongolian bows were lighter, faster, and more precise than their European counterparts — the Mongols plowed through armies many times their size, and Hungary proved no exception. ........ and an estimated 25% of all Hungarians slaughtered........... The Hungarian king, Béla IV, fled to the Dalmatian coast, which was part of Croatia at the time, where he and his kingdom would have surely been crushed were it not for Ogodei Khan, whose sudden death later that year compelled Mongol forces everywhere to return home to elect a new leader........ The Mongol invasion of Europe, left unfinished, left its mark on the survivors. “The entire precious kingdom,” the Holy Roman Emperor Frederick II wrote of Hungary, “was depopulated, devastated and turned into a barren wasteland.” The invasion is also believed to have facilitated the spread of the bubonic plague, leading to the deaths of up to 200 million people worldwide. ......... Poland, Hungary, and particularly Russia bounced back stronger, building the foundation for nation-states that are still around today. With the lands of Asia united under a single ruler, ideas and inventions could travel more freely and safely from one end of the world to another. In a weird way, the Mongols even had a hand in events as distant as Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. .......... Although the Mongols may well have been able to conquer all of Europe, they never did. After the passing of Ogodei, invasions gave way to infighting as multiple heirs of Genghis Khan laid claim to his title. ......... Hungary, renowned for its pastures and grasslands, had long been designated as the last leg of their campaign. The dense forests of Central and Western Europe, by comparison, were not only difficult for the nomadic Mongols to navigate in times of war, but also pointless to occupy in peace. ......... the Pax Mongolica ......... Central to the Pax Mongolica was the resurgence of international trade. Not since the ancient Romans had there been an empire large and powerful enough to bring Europe into sustained contact with East Asia. Under Mongol supervision, the trade routes of the Silk Road, many of which had become dangerous and deserted after the collapse of Rome, reopened, creating new industries and economies. Rice and porcelain traveled West as glassware and fur went East. Chinese silk, arguably the most important product of all, made the Italian city-states of Genoa, Florence, and Venice wealthy enough to finance the Renaissance. ............. Merchants along the Silk Road not only traded in consumer goods but also in ideas, inventions, and identities. ........ after the Mongol invasion of Europe, when life-altering technologies like printmaking and gunpowder, which had been around for centuries in the East, moved westward. Documents show gunpowder, thought to have been invented in Han dynasty China around 140 AD, appeared in the Middle East as early as 1240 ............. As a rule, the Mongols killed anyone who didn’t surrender. Conversely, they tended to spare those who did. In a move that distinguishes him from most other imperialists, Genghis Khan promoted religious tolerance, creating an environment in which Christians, Muslims, Buddhists, and Taoists could express their faith without fear of being harmed. Genghis also allowed monks and missionaries to travel the Silk Road, a decision that ultimately enabled the famous voyages of the Venetian merchant Marco Polo. .......... in 1368, China’s Ming dynasty usurped the Mongol-backed Yuan dynasty in part to resist the encroachment of Christianity. .......... the biggest legacy of the Mongol invasion of Eastern Europe is the role it played in unifying the principalities of Kievan Rus’ into a single governing body. Prior to the arrival of the Mongols, the territory that comprises modern-day Ukraine, Belarus, and western Russia was tied together by a confederation of loosely affiliated city-states. The most powerful of these city-states was Kyiv until the Mongols captured and destroyed it in 1240. ............. Under Mongol rule, another principality, the Grand Duchy of Moscow, emerged as the new cultural, religious, and military epicenter of the region. It was Moscow that eventually overthrew the Mongols, using the victory to establish an empire of its own: the Tsardom of Russia. ........... Presenting an oversimplified version of the distant past, Putin has referred to Kyiv as “the mother of Russian cities,” of a people destined to ward off international threats, be that the sons of Genghis Khan or the agents of American imperialism. .



Genghis Khan’s grandson introduced paper money—and inadvertently tanked the Mongol Empire Kublai Khan wasn’t the first ruler in history to issue paper money, but his Yuan dynasty did take unprecedented action to ensure this revolutionary form of currency retained its value. ........ When the Venetian merchant Marco Polo traveled to Asia in the late thirteenth century, he was shocked to learn that the inhabitants of Mongolian China went about their daily business using paper money. ........ Of all the innovations Polo encountered in the east, including gunpowder and eyeglasses, paper money was perhaps the most outlandish. Back in his native Venice, not to mention any other place in the known world at that point in time, people used money that was made from copper, silver and gold: materials which had intrinsic as opposed to artificial value. ......... “All these pieces of paper,” Polo later recounted in his Book of the Marvels of the World, “are issued with as much solemnity and authority as if they were of pure gold or silver.” ........ Under Kublai’s watch, paper money spread from China to the Middle East, turning the concept from an oddity into a normality. .......... — by the 7th century C.E. — there arose a network of agencies where overburdened merchants could deposit their purses in exchange for promissory notes. ........ China’s promissory agencies were regulated and eventually incorporated by the Song dynasty, which ruled from 960 until 1279 C.E. During this time, the Song issued what is thought to be the first government-produced paper money in history: the jiaozi. ......... Each note was made using a variety of fibers and given an expiration date of three years in order to discourage forgery. ........... This currency remained in circulation for only nine years, disappearing completely when China was conquered by Mongols and placed under direct management of Kublai Khan. ......... By Kublai’s orders, it was used from Yuan China to the Middle East. Local coins were outlawed, forcing people to redeem their wealth in the newly issued currency. ........ Anyone who refused to accept the chao, or preferred to pay in other currencies, was sentenced to death. More importantly, taxes could only be paid in chao. ........ Kublai’s government was the first “both in Chinese and world history to use paper money as the sole medium of circulation. ......... the chao the first historical instance of fiat money, or money which is not backed by an intrinsically valuable commodity like gold or silver. ....... the unification of currency under Kublai Khan’s monetary reform promoted economic development in Yuan China.” ........ the various actions that Kublai’s government took to ensure the currency’s value remained fixed in turbulent times. New notes were printed sparingly to prevent hyperinflation. The government even set up its own granaries to offset the market when, following poor harvests or natural disasters, rice prices rose. ......... in wartime, as Kublai’s campaign against the Song dynasty took a hefty toll on the Mongol Empire’s silver reserves. When these reserves were fully depleted, newly printed chao notes could no longer be backed up and their value depreciated rapidly. ........... The Yuan dynasty was crippled by inflation, a problem that continued until its collapse in 1368. Disillusioned .......... happened to Kublai Khan during his war against the Song. It also happened, to a lesser extent and in a much more complicated way, at the start of the 2008 financial crisis. In the face of this global recession, a mysterious individual known as Satoshi Nakamoto developed Bitcoin — a currency whose value is based on cryptography rather than the reputation of social institutions. .......... the use of gold or, in case of the Mongols, silver standards. While these standards help control inflation and depreciation, they can also cripple an economy when reserves are depleted. For this exact reason, the U.S. government abandoned the Gold Standard in 1971 and has stuck to fiat money ever since. ....... Above all, Kublai Khan and his dynasty are remembered for the high level of scrutiny with which they managed their economy. Although this economy eventually collapsed, Kublai’s constituents enjoyed decades of prosperity and innovation. .



Bye, paper currencies: How blockchain and fintech will soon transform money Digital currencies are set to upend paper currencies, but it likely won't be the decentralized utopia some hope it will be. ....... A book is written when there is something specific that has to be discovered. The writer doesn’t know what it is, nor where it is, but knows it has to be found. The hunt then begins. The writing begins. — Roberto Calasso, The Celestial Hunter ........... In May 2018, Cecilia Skingsley, the deputy governor of Sweden’s central bank, foretold the end of money as we know it. Speaking about the declining use of physical cash in Sweden, she observed that “if you extrapolate current trends, the last note will have been handed back to the Riksbank by 2030.” In other words, the use of paper currency to carry out commercial transactions in Sweden would cease at that point. ........ China is another country where the use of cash is quickly becoming a thing of the past. ......... My Chinese friends would look on with befuddlement as I pulled out my currency notes rather than my phone to pay for a meal or coffee. ........ The truly revolutionary change in finance seemed to have been heralded by Bitcoin. ......... The price of Bitcoin, which was less than $500 in 2015, hit nearly $20,000 in December 2017. ......... Bitcoin’s price surged to over $60,000 in March 2021. .

Thinking About AI: Part 3 - Existential Risk (Terminator Scenario) First, we have shown no ability to globally coordinate on other existential threats including ones that are much more obvious, so why do we think we could succeed here? Second, who wants to give government that much power over controlling core parts of computing infrastructure, such as the shipment of GPUs? ........ It is absurd to expect that you can have a good outcome when you train a model first on the web corpus and then attempt to constrain it via reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). ......... This is akin to letting a child grow up without any moral guidance along the way and then expect them to be a well behaved adult based on occasionally telling them they are doing something wrong. We have to create a large corpus of moral reasoning that can be ingested early and form the core of a superintelligence before exposing it to all the world’s output. .......... we’re not doing terribly well on the central humanist value of critical inquiry. We’re also not treating other species well, our biggest failing in this area being industrial meat production. Here as with many other problems that humans have created, I believe the best way forward is innovation. I’m excited about lab-grown meat and plant-based meat substitutes. Improving our treatment of other species is an important way in which we can use the attention freed up by automation. .



How to raise money Capital is the lifeblood of any high growth company. It has to be treated as a key priority. It can never be outsourced or downgraded to a second priority. ...... I’ve raised over $1 billion in my career as a technology entrepreneur. ....... I’ve pitched almost every VC and technology investor on the planet. I’ve also been declined by almost every technology investor at some point in my career. ......... Investors are looking for certain traits. Without these, you have little chance of raising a single dollar. ...........

Fundraising is about talking to 200 investors and finding the 1 person who will take a bet on you.

I’ve always experienced really low conversion rates in these efforts - it’s never been easy for me to raise capital. And that’s quite normal. ........... If your idea is in the Space industry, talking to an internet marketplace VC fund will likely not be fruitful. ......... Investor Meetings: This is the output to all your hard work. The goal is to drive up the number of qualified investor meetings as high as possible. You want to do 50-200 of these meetings. The more qualified investor meetings, the higher your odds of raising capital. .............. I find Crunchbase to be one of the best resources for finding a list of these investors and also analyzing the investors of other similar companies in your industry. ........ work to find the investment partner who covers your specific industry and maturity. Research this person online to make sure it’s a close match. ......... I suggest spending a few days trying to get as many referrals as possible.Once you hit your limit, move to outbound for the rest. ........... I suggest spending a few days trying to get as many referrals as possible.Once you hit your limit, move to outbound for the rest. ......... I’ve found this entire process from start to finish will take at least 3 months. I suggest spending 30 days preparing the investor deck, data room, mapping out investors, and your cold email template. ......... The next 30-60 days are investor outreach and meetings, or however long it takes to get a term sheet. Once you have a term sheet it generally takes ............

No VC’s were investing in SpaceX and Tesla back in 2003.

........ matching your industry and the capital requirements with the investors is critical to not spin your wheels. ....... Behind a great product or service is usually a #1 team. I call it a Championship Team. There’s no way you’re building a great product without a #1 team and investors, especially Seed and Series A, understand this. Showcasing the founder(s) and the team is critical. ............ 80% of all investor pitches should come from an outbound process which is defined by a cold call or cold email. The other 20% should come from traditional inbound processes - people you know in the industry and referrals from friends, colleagues and other investors. ............ If you are successful in your career you will be doing hundreds of investor pitches and the deck is usually the first impression the investor has. ......... Investors will move at lightning speed if they are interested in getting a deal done. If the investor is interested then they will be charging forward. If you are in a situation where the investor is not hurrying, then it is likely a sign you don’t have a deal. .......... Only focus on finding a “lead” investor and put on pause any investor who doesn’t have the capabilities to give you a term sheet and lead your round. Once you get the first lead investor to say Yes, then the probabilities of getting other investors interested goes up dramatically. .......... Given the importance of capital, fundraising likely becomes the #1 attention for founders when out capital raising. This is not entirely healthy as it distracts you from working on the most important area of a company - the product ....... in 2012 I was accepted into the NYU Tech Incubator for Vettery (an online recruiting marketplace I founded.) ....... Capital raising was extremely difficult for me. In my early days, I couldn’t get a single legitimate Venture Capital investor to invest after countless pitches. ......... I ended up raising all from angels over the next 3 years to make payroll and survive. At one point, I had pitched every legitimate tech investor in the U.S. ....... I took a $0 salary for 4 years as I didn’t have enough excess capital to pay myself. I was personally investing my life savings into the company, paying NYC rent, medical, etc. During 2015, I had to borrow $50k to pay for rent. I was in debt, dead broke, and the business wasn’t hitting product market fit. ......... I realized a lot of the conventional wisdom for early founders is broken and wrong. In 2021, I took Archer Aviation public (which was like winning the super bowl for startup founders.) ........ The entire venture game is predicated on finding outliers and extreme exceptions. Investors are looking for something A) unique, B) aligned with their personal thesis, and C) within their investing mandate. There are 4,000+ companies looking to raise capital each year and only a handful will return close to all of the returns for those investors.

Naming a company it can make or break your branding. ......... "Warby Parker" is an odd name for a glasses company. ........ Engineer a name that eventually becomes a thing people do. ...... Great examples of this include Google, Photoshop, and Uber. ....... Nobody says "I need to grab a ride share." ......... The sweet spot is a 2-syllable name...... Some good examples for this are Nike, Apple, Twitter, and Facebook. ......... Your name needs to be easy enough for a 7 year old to spell. ....... Your name needs to be easy enough for a 7 year old to spell. ........ Apple, Tesla, and Nike.

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