Monday, March 27, 2023

Ethan Mollick



Superhuman: What can AI do in 30 minutes? AI multiplies your efforts. I found out by how much... The multiplier on human effort is unprecedented ........ I gave myself 30 minutes, and tried to accomplish as much as I could during that time on a single business project. At the end of 30 minutes I would stop. The project: to market the launch a new educational game. AI would do all the work, I would just offer directions. ........ in 30 minutes it: did market research, created a positioning document, wrote an email campaign, created a website, created a logo and “hero shot” graphic, made a social media campaign for multiple platforms, and scripted and created a video. In 30 minutes......... First, I needed to teach AI about my product, or, rather, to ask it to teach itself about the product. ......... a game I authored with Wharton Interactive, designed to teach leadership and team skills on a fictional mission to Saturn ............. I started with Bing, a GPT-4 model that is connected to the internet, and drew on its research capabilities so that it could teach itself about my product and the market it was in .......... All you have to do to make that happen is to ask: Pretend you are marketing genius. We are going to launch the Saturn Parable. You should give me a document that oulines an email marketing campaign and a single webpage to promote the game. ......... 1,757 words. 7 (good!) pages. Two prompts. 2 minutes and 40 seconds. ......... I then used my second system of the day, GPT-4, to actually build the website. Bing can be unreliable at code, and has limited numbers of questions you can ask. So, I gave ChatGPT-4 the instructions above, and told it: You are an expert site designer. You are creating the launch announcement page for the Saturn Parable, outlined below. create the following webpage. Make it an HTML page that I can run on my computer. List any additional assets I will need to make it work and where to put them. (I did cheat a bit here, GPT-4 ran very slowly, and I got busy with other tasks, so, by the time I got the full HTML and css files, I was a few minutes over the time limit, but the results are still pretty interesting) ........ I turned to another AI, MidJourney, to create the images - ...... (This kind of iterated editing feels very powerful, and everyone should give it a try) ........ Can you write me the social media campaign I need to promote this using the Wharton accounts on social? ....... Finally, it looked like I needed to do a video. Fortunately, I had an easy way to make one. I asked Bing for a script, used ElevenLabs to create a realistic voice, and D-id to turn it into a video. You can see it here! ...... Bing generated 9,200 words or so of text and a couple images, GPT-4 generated a working HTML and CSS file, MidJourney created 12 images, ElevenLabs created a voicefile, and DiD created a movie. ........... Input: I made less than 20 inputs to all the systems to generate these results. .......... This would have been a lot of work for me to do. Many hours, maybe days of work. I would have needed a team to help: I have never done an email marketing campaign, don’t know CSS, and certainly could not have staged a photo like the one in the hero image. ....... When we all can do superhuman amounts of work, what happens? Do we do less work an have more leisure? Do we work more and do the jobs of ten people? Do employers benefit? Employees? I am not sure. Historically, these sorts of disruptions lead to short-term issues, and long-term employment growth. .......... I was able to do this using the tools available today, without any specific technical knowledge, and in plain English prompts: I just asked for what I wanted, and the AI provided it. That means almost everyone else can do it, too. We are already in a world of superhumans, we just have to wait for the implications. .

Secret Cyborgs: The Present Disruption in Three Papers The future is already here, we just need to figure out a few details....... It took only 10 years from when Edison first revealed the electric bulb and electrical system until New York City had switched almost completely from gas to electric lighting. ....... everything changed in November with the release of ChatGPT ......... was the fastest technology to reach 100 million users. ........ It required no addition technology, platform, or process to be effective. .......... .



What if OpenAI doesn’t need Chrome or any other browser? ........ What if they don’t need middle-men either? Instead, they could allow operation providers to connect directly with customers through the ChatGPT interface. .......... a conversational user interface, like those found on WhatsApp or Telegram, doesn’t require full browser capabilities. It’s a completely different interaction, and one that could revolutionize the way we access information. ........... And what if OpenAI took a 15% cut from each transaction that happens on ChatGPT (hi ЁЯСЛЁЯП╝ Apple)? That’s a game-changer right there. Suddenly, large e-commerce shops, marketplaces, and aggregators become obsolete. Until now, those companies existed because they were more capable of digital operations than operation providers. But with the advent of conversational interfaces, the entire tech infrastructure of websites is changing. Those websites are losing ground quickly, and operational providers are stepping up to take their place......... with a universal interface like ChatGPT, Nike won’t need high-level digital capabilities anymore. They’ll just be a supplier with a simple ERP-API connection. This means many new possibilities for Nike. ......... what if OpenAI doesn’t even need your laptop, phone, or any other device in the future? Could they potentially become a device manufacturer and own the entire journey? Maybe they’ll create something like the NoPhone idea, or internet-connected cableless headphones, or even IronMan’s Jarvis. .......... This can be the next big thing after 90s web1.0, 2000s web2.0, 2010s mobile era - 2020s AI era. ........... people were expecting multiple LLM models from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and other players. However, an ecosystem of plugins could create significant momentum for OpenAI, potentially making it difficult for other companies to compete. This is reminiscent of how the iOS AppStore was always superior to other app stores, which helped make the iPhone such a big success story. ....... As for the future of AI, it’s both exciting and scary. The possibilities are endless, but we need to be mindful of potential downsides and work to mitigate them as we continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible. But with the right mindset and approach, the future is looking brighter than ever......... The ideas and frameworks are mine, but article is partially written with support of GPT-4.



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ChatGPT = Motorbike

This Chipmaking Step Is Crucial to the Future of Computing—and Just Got 40x Faster Thanks to Nvidia

..... it makes an immediate difference in personal productivity. ......... The current situation is truly unprecedented. We are seeing widespread adoption of a technology that has the potential to significantly boost individual productivity, but which is not yet being fully utilized by organizations. .......... Bigger than steam power? ........ A study of programmers found a increase of 55.8% in productivity when using AI (and this is using the Copilot AI tool, which isn’t even state-of-the-art!). ......... asked professionals to write realistic memos, strategy documents and policies. The ones who were given ChatGPT completed tasks 37% faster, and their average writing quality increased as well. All of this is without added training or extensive experience using ChatGPT (which I found makes a huge difference). ........ the productivity gains that can be achieved through the use of general-purpose AI tools like ChatGPT seem to be truly large ......... the productivity gains that can be achieved through the use of general-purpose AI tools like ChatGPT seem to be truly large ......... they come from the use of a general-purpose tool like ChatGPT, rather than more specialized AI tools ........ the potential for productivity gains is not limited to a select few industries, but rather can be applied across a wide variety of fields. ......... for the average small factory in the US in the 19th century, adding steam power increased productivity by 25%. ......... something very big is happening. ........ it is some of the most highly skilled and highly paid jobs that face the most exposure to AI. ......... AI can increase productivity for workers in fields where automation and economies of scale were previously very rare....... “Ultimately this is not stealing a movie screenplay or a whole song, but it’s spiritually the same kind of thing. It’s just uncool.” ........ Jamie Trufin, who runs a meme account called @DogeCoinDaddy, said he was disappointed when Mr. Musk posted one of his Doge memes in March without credit. ....... Mr. Howdle was puzzled as to why someone with such vast resources would share another person’s work without credit. ....... “Someone in my group chat was like, ‘LOL did everyone see how Elon straight up stole a meme that Miles made?’” ........ Several people who have had their content posted by Mr. Musk have since asked for payment, be it in dollars, Teslas or Bitcoin. (Mr. Monahan said he was willing to accept a “mere $80,000.”) ....... (teachers need to prep lessons, grade, write letters of recommendation, run classes, respond to parents, run after school programs, do administrative work, etc.). With the power to outsource the most annoying and time consuming parts of their jobs, workers in these industries are highly incentivized to adopt AI quickly, either to do less work or to be able to bill out more work themselves. It is a recipe for rapid adoption at the individual level. ........ over half of generative AI users reported using the technology without telling anyone, at least some of the time. Their are secret cyborgs among us. ........... The implications may reshape the way we work in ways that rival the impact of the Industrial Revolution. ........ there are far fewer advantages to organizations in this coming AI boom. With these potential productivity gains, every company should be spending a significant amount of their best employees time - right now! - figuring out how to use AI to improve performance......... And every worker should be spending time figuring out how to use these general-purpose tools to their advantage. They should be thinking about how to automate their job to remove the tedious and uncreative parts, and getting a sense for the disruption to come before the organizations they work for realize the full implications of AI. .......... The key is to learn fast.

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Elon Musk: Memelord or Meme Lifter? The billionaire has been posting content creators’ work without credit. Some are frustrated; others, simply puzzled........ Elon Musk has referred to memes as “modern art” and shares them regularly on Twitter, where he has more than 52 million followers. ....... Memes rely on reinterpretations of joke formats, and it’s not always clear where they begin. ....... the fact that Elon Musk frequently steals memes has become, essentially, a meme in itself ........ Now, when a brand uses a meme for marketing purposes, it generally asks for permission to share the image, and credits the owner. In many cases, the brand also pays. Mr. Musk, who is both a successful businessman and a freewheeling personal brand, appears to be an exception.





My meeting with Prime Minister Modi We talked about India’s incredible progress—and how Indian innovation can benefit the world....... At a time when the world has so many challenges, it’s inspiring to visit a dynamic and creative place like India. ....... He was generous with his time, as we talked about how science and innovation can help reduce inequity in India and around the world. ....... India has an amazing ability to manufacture lots of safe, effective, and affordable vaccines, some of them supported by the Gates Foundation. Vaccines produced in India have saved millions of lives during the pandemic and prevented other diseases around the world.......... In addition to producing new lifesaving tools, India also excels at delivering them—its public health system has delivered more than 2.2 billion doses of COVID vaccines. They created an open-source platform called Co-WIN, which allowed people to schedule billions of vaccine appointments and delivered digital certifications for those who were vaccinated. This platform is now being expanded to support India’s universal immunization program. Prime Minister Modi believes that Co-WIN is a model for the world, and I agree. ......... India was also able to transfer emergency digital payments to 300 million people, including 200 million women, during the pandemic. This was only possible because India has made financial inclusion a priority, investing in a digital ID system (called Aadhaar) and creating innovative platforms for digital banking. It’s a reminder that financial inclusion is a fantastic investment. ....... The country’s Gati Shakti program is a great example of how digital technology can help governments work better. It digitally connects 16 ministries, including rail and roads, so they can integrate their plans for infrastructure projects and accelerate the work of Indian scientists and engineers. ........ I commended the Prime Minister on India's efforts to eliminate deadly and debilitating diseases like tuberculosis, visceral leishmaniasis, and lymphatic filariasis. He told me about a fascinating movement taking shape in India: Communities are “adopting” TB patients to make sure they get the nutrition and care they need. India has used a similar approach with HIV, and it’s been shown to produce lasting results........ India is using digital tools to make learning more accessible through several different avenues, including TV....... I’m looking forward to getting together with the MI partners during the COP28 Summit this December to accelerate the development of new sources of affordable, reliable clean energy. ........ visited the India Council of Agricultural Research in Pusa, where I learned about efforts to help farmers adapt to a warmer climate, including by planting new varieties of wheat and chickpeas that can tolerate droughts. Scientists are also working to increase the shelf life of millet-based products. Millets are very nutritious—a super food, as Prime Minister Modi put it—and are also water-efficient and heat tolerant. I even got to taste millet khichdi, a type of porridge, at a “Godh Bharai” ceremony—similar to a baby shower—for two women hosted by the Ministry of Women and Child Development. .

My message in India: To fight climate change, improve global health The Age of AI has begun
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