NEOM: Governance

I have been blogging about NEOM much recently. I have read little on the topic, and have said much. But on this one topic, I have read nothing. And here are my comments.

The NEOM territory will be a little bit of Egypt, a little bit of Jordan, and a lot of Saudi Arabia. And Saudi Arabia will let go. That is my impression. The Saudi judiciary will have no jurisdiction over NEOM. That is my impression. That is a decision that has already been made.

Saudi Arabia is dangling a wallet with 500 billion dollars in it. But it has to have the humility to see this is not a 500 billion dollar project. This is at least a five trillion dollar project with most of the money coming from beyond Saudi Arabia. Easy math will tell you, Saudi Arabia will have to be willing to give 90% ownership to others. Which others?

NEOM has to be a fresh start for humanity like America was a fresh start for Europe.

But there is land. It is Saudi land, primarily. And the 500 billion dollar does not count the land. The land eventually is worth more than that wallet. After the city of NEOM is up and standing, NEOM land might fetch Manhattan prices. But that is not now.

Walking away from the Saudi judiciary is fine, that is how you give a place a fresh start, but that can not be walking away from God and faith. Every major faith emphasizes family and marriage.

At some level, this is existential for Saudi Arabia. This is do or die. The world needs to walk away from oil for climate crisis reasons. And oil is on its way to getting priced out. So Saudi Arabia has this window in time to diversify and become a post-oil economy. I think it can. It should. Done right the future riches will be greater than the oil riches. Nokia used to be a timber company long before it became a phone company. Great companies and great countries transform as necessary.

NEOM will be a new city. It will be a city-state. Like the Vatican is its own country. That is what I read somewhere. And I don't see how it could work any other way. 500 billion dollars is but seed money. It is a small amount compared to the ambition.

Heck, NEOM could create a world government. Every country willing to pay 1% of its GDP as an annual membership fee would be welcome to join the world government that would have its seat in NEOM, a city-state, a country of its own. That world government can co-exist with the UN. The UN functions more like an NGO. It does not function much like a government. The whole veto thing is so outdated. The UN can keep doing the UN thing. No problem.

The world government would be funded by that membership fee. It would have two chambers. In the lower chamber each country's voting weight would be in proportion to its population. In the upper chamber it would be in proportion to its GDP.

The world government would have a president directly elected by people all over the planet voting on their phones and tablets, using their biometric IDs. The president of the world would also be president of NEOM, but NEOM would also elect a Prime Minister. And that Prime Minister voted in by all residents of the city who have lived in the city for at least a year, would be the one running the city. The president for the city would be more ceremonial.

The city could have a prince in a ceremonial role. The prince of Saudi Arabia can be the prince of NEOM. Why not? Thanks for all that land.

NEOM should have a permanent seat for the world government. It should also have a permanent seat for the T100, the governing body of the 100 biggest technology companies in the world measured by market cap. Issues like data privacy and data security this T100 needs to solve.

And a Consortium of Cities (CC), an annual gathering of the 100 biggest cities in the world. This would be more like an organization for comparing notes and sharing best practices.

The city would provide all government services digitally. The city would use surveillance cameras to attempt a zero crime rate but would do so with the highest standards for privacy protection. Every time anyone enters or leaves the city, they would have to press the finger and submit their biometric ID. They would also have to be willing to do an iris scan and a face scan.

I understand there is a lot of paranoia around biometric IDs, much of it justified, because those who do it seem to have little respect for privacy protection.

All the high tech stuff would be happening in the private sector with individual companies participating. So when there is a failure it is a company and not the city failing. That demarcation is important. There will be plenty of failures. There is no innovation where there are no failures.

Taxes can be as low as possible. The city might even do the Dubai thing for a few decades and have no taxes. Land development pays enough to run the city.

And those are my early thoughts on NEOM governance.

NEOM: Governance https://t.co/X0WIXENddV @IsraeliPM @netanyahu @MustafaKheriba @JassimAlseddiqi @KingSalman @KSAmofaEN @RoyalSaudiNews @NEOM @ImranKhanPTI @narendramodi @iamsrk @aamir_khan @BeingSalmanKhan @saudiarabia @ksamissionun @sundarpichai @satyanadella @Google @Microsoft

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) November 25, 2019

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NEOM: A City

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— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) December 5, 2019

The Man Who Solved The Market

Book recommended by Jassim Alseddiqi.

Must read! Great work by @GZuckerman on Jim Simons “The Man Who Solved The Market”. pic.twitter.com/0K1HPqW6XX

— Jassim Alseddiqi (@JassimAlseddiqi) November 23, 2019

The Man Who Solved the Market employed at the IDA in Princeton ...... While I’ve often heard the story of how he was fired from IDA after publicly criticizing the Vietnam War, less well known is that a big problem was that he was quoted in Newsweek saying he planned to work on his own projects, not government ones, until the war was over.

How to Beat the Market “a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by the experts.” ........ the market is so efficient that even professional investors have little chance of beating it on a regular basis. If there’s one reason index funds, which replicate the performance of market indexes like the S&P 500, now hold $4.3 trillion (yes, trillion) in assets .......

Jim Simons is not a blindfolded monkey.

A former code-breaker for the United States government and a brilliant mathematician, Simons founded the most successful investment firm the world has ever seen........ even Warren Buffett’s track record — 20.5 percent annualized returns since 1965 — doesn’t approach Simons’s average of 39 percent gains over a three-decade span. And that’s after his company has taken a 5 percent management fee and 44 percent of the profits. ....... How does Simons do it? We know that his firm, Renaissance Technologies, helped pioneer quantitative investing, relying on complex computer programs rather than human judgment, to make trading decisions. .......... on the subject of his investing success, he is secretive to the point of paranoia. Employees sign ironclad nondisclosure agreements, and are told to avoid media appearances and industry conferences. ........ “combinatorial game theory” and “stochastic equations” ....... turns out that a firm like Renaissance, filled with nerdy academics trying to solve the market’s secrets, is way more interesting than your typical greed-is-good hedge fund....... Simons first began investing as a young man after receiving $5,000 as a wedding gift. He was a commodities speculator for a short time....... a computerized stock trading system that could search — and I’m quoting Zuckerman here — “for a small number of ‘macroscopic variables’ capable of predicting the market’s short-term behavior.” ......... In 1978, Simons left Stony Brook University, where he had built its math department into one of the best in the country, to start the firm that we now know as Renaissance Technologies........ They collected incredible amounts of historical data — not just about stocks and bonds, but about currencies, commodities, weather patterns and all sorts of market-moving events. They made plenty of missteps along the way. But in time, they had gathered so much data — and had computers powerful enough to ingest that data — that the machines found profitable correlations no human could ever suss out, much less understand....... one of the most interesting was the firm’s former co-chief executive, Robert Mercer, the conservative billionaire who funded Breitbart News and Cambridge Analytica. Zuckerman portrays Mercer as “a peculiar but largely benign figure within the company” who liked to zing his liberal colleagues, but mostly kept his own counsel. When his role in conservative politics caused an outcry, Simons felt he had to ask his longtime partner to step down as co-C.E.O. But even though Simons himself was a liberal, he wasn’t happy about it. “He’s a nice guy,” Zuckerman quotes Simons telling a friend. “He’s allowed to use his money as he wishes.” ........

Simons makes money because human behavior will never be completely “efficient.”

...... humans have always acted emotionally ..... “I think the market is reasonably close to efficient,” another well-known quant, Clifford Asness, once told me, “but there are a lot of little inefficiencies.” Those little inefficiencies are what emotionless computers take advantage of. ....... “For all the unique data, computer firepower, special talent and trading and risk-management expertise Renaissance has gathered, the firm only profits on barely more than 50 percent of its trades, a sign of how challenging it is to try to beat the market — and how foolish it is for most investors to try.” ....... In other words,

stick to index funds.

The Man Who Solved the Market — how Jim Simons built a moneymaking machine Gregory Zuckerman’s book lifts the lid on the enimgatic founder of Renaissance who launched the quant revolution ......... The profound and the inane alike are debated on Quora, a website where the curious (or plain bored) can pose questions to the internet hive mind. ......... Renaissance Technologies, a fabled yet secretive hedge fund ......Last year, a rival recounted how he had once nearly poached someone from Renaissance, only to be stymied at the last minute. “I read about him years later,” the Quora contributor wrote. “He bought an Alp. As in . . . an actual mountain in Austria.” ....... the awestruck fascination that Renaissance commands in finance. ...... Machines and algorithms have taken over swaths of markets, supplanting the grizzled traders of public perception, and no one has harnessed computer science and vast data sets to invest as successfully as Renaissance. “It’s the gold standard of computer trading,” one rival once ruefully admitted to me......... Even most people in finance would struggle to identify Simons out of a line-up of similarly disheveled octogenarians. Indeed, his chain-smoking, silver beard, wryness and reluctance to wear socks all make him seem more like a Coen Brothers character than a colossus of investing........ Quoting Benjamin, Animal Farm’s wise old donkey, Simons said:

“‘God gave me a tail to keep off the flies. But I’d rather have had no tail and no flies.’ So, that’s kind of the way I feel about publicity.”

....... the most fascinating man in financial markets: a liberal mathematician who once motorcycled from Boston to Bogotá, was ejected from the Soviet code-cracking team at the Institute for Defense Analyses for opposing the Vietnam war, and then built the most relentless of moneymaking machines. ..... Renaissance has generated over $100bn in trading profits since 1988 — more than any other hedge fund in history — making millionaires of many of its employees, and several billionaires. Forbes puts Simons’ fortune at above $21bn, leaving other hedge fund magnates and financiers such as Ray Dalio, George Soros and Stephen Schwarzman trailing......... Quantitative finance — as it is dubbed — may seem a recondite subject to many people, but it is profoundly reshaping the investment industry, and thus capitalism itself. And Renaissance is the shining example of what can be achieved by applying modern technology, big data and lots of brainy people........... Renaissance is also emblematic of an era where technology helps money and power accrue to an increasingly small number of people. The choices that these people make can reverberate globally. While Simons has become one of the world’s biggest backers of scientific research and philanthropy — and a host of Democratic politicians — his former colleague Robert Mercer has funnelled his billions into the far-right Breitbart News, the election of Donald Trump and Cambridge Analytica, the political consultancy ........

Renaissance’s first years were spent in a poky office in a Long Island strip mall. Regulators once came calling after recommendations spat out by the early algorithms saw Renaissance nearly cornered the potato market.

......... Failure often loomed. When Renaissance’s first foray into bond markets turned into big losses, Simons admitted to a colleague that “sometimes I look at this and feel I’m just some guy who doesn’t really know what he’s doing”...... Renaissance has enjoyed a golden run the likes of which investing has never seen. When it notched up its first $1m one-day profit in 1990, Simons handed out champagne — but $1m one-day gains quickly “became so frequent that the drinking got a bit out of hand” ........ For all Simons’ undoubted brilliance, the book makes clear that his skill was not inventing complex trading models and algorithms himself. His talent was to spot, nurture and harness beautiful but often combustible minds such as James Ax, Lenny Baum, Elwyn Berlekamp, Henry Laufer, Peter Brown and Mercer........ one of the biggest actors in one of the biggest stories of our time: how machines conquered financial markets.