Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Silver Lining For China On Hong Kong


Hong Kong: Endgame Scenarios

The Chinese currency is nowhere close to full convertibility. And so Shenzen can not replace Hong Kong for China. Hong Kong has been and will continue to be indispensable to the Chinese mainland. More than 60% of Foreign Direct Investment that goes into China goes through Hong Kong, and that figure is a low point.

But Hong Kong is not the "Silicon Valley" of hardware. That is Shenzen.

Something is cooking up in the Hong Kong Bay Area that is really interesting from the tech and innovation viewpoint. Shenzen is number one for hardware in the world, and there is this thing called the Internet Of Things hanging on the horizon. There are also robotics and drones: physical things.

Hong Kong is not being destroyed. Hong Kong is being rejuvenated. That is how I look at the current protests.

The quickest way to end the protests is for Xi Jinping to say, okay, you can have a directly elected Chief Executive. It beats me as to why he will not do that.

A successful conclusion to the Hong Kong protests will not end one country, two systems and will take free speech in Hong Kong to a whole new level. And there will be much innovation as a result.

The Hong Kong Bay Area reminds me of the San Francisco Bay Area.

Also, South China Sea would be a great place where to build the ocean cities of tomorrow. Don't build on Mars. Build in the South China Sea. It has six key components: gravity, water, air, food, capital and demand.





Silicon Valley And Dubai
To: The Crown Prince Of Dubai
Elon Musk's Giant Blind Spot: Human Beings
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Silicon Valley And Dubai



First of all, what is technically Silicon Valley (it is an actual geography ... it's a valley, I have been) is no longer where innovation is happening. The innovation is happening north of that in San Francisco, a big city where young engineers like to live. And, by now, New York is neck and neck. Because, guess what, San Fran has nothing on New York when it comes to big city living. And Dubai makes New York look like a Third World city.

But look at this Founding Father of Silicon Valley. This guy, the first Prime Minister of India, is the primary pusher behind the establishment of IITs across India. No IITs, no Silicon Valley, pure and simple. Sundar Pichai and Satya Nadella look visible now, but Indians have always been the majority of the workhorses in the valley tech companies.


You also need capital. Every VC in California gets their money from the pension funds in New York. It is not like the dollar bill in California is a different color from green. Capital is capital. And Dubai has a ton of it.

Culture is big. In San Fran they have a culture where they celebrate failure. They say, fail fast. Fail better next time. But that culture can be cultivated. In other words, be tolerant.

But the truest form of tolerance is cultural diversity, the number one quality I look for in any city. And there Dubai is number one by a wide margin.

The IITs are still producing super smart graduates. But the visa regime in the US has become very unfriendly. Dubai does great there. And if there is room for improvement, it can be fixed by royal decree. I am sure.

Dubai has capital. Dubai can access the same IITs, and only better. Because Dubai is so much closer to home. People like home. Dubai's cultural diversity is the greatest symbol of tolerance there can be.

What is needed is a city inside a city. And I am going to build that. The world is big. The San Francisco Bay Area, or the Hong Kong Bay Area are not big enough for all the innovation the world needs.

And Dubai has excellent location. You have Africa and you have South Asia nearby, the next two Chinas.

To: The Crown Prince Of Dubai
No Techies In Dubai
Elon Musk's Giant Blind Spot: Human Beings
Dubai's Remarkable Economic Transformation





















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