Binary Investments, The Middle Kingdom, And Super Exits

Fred Wilson: The Fallacy Of Bimodal Returns: startup returns are not bimodal. They exhibit more of a power law curve. There will certainly be one or two venture deals every year that generate 100x or more. And there will certainly be quite a few total busts. But there are a lot of outcomes in the middle of those two.

Binary is the term used by Ron Conway, the guy in Silicon Valley who invests like he had perennial diarrhea. I read him using the term in a TechCrunch blog post a few weeks back. Binary works for him. It works because he has a track record over almost two decades, or at least a decade and a half, of not having missed out on any good deal in the Valley. He has been in all the top companies. He has also managed to get into FourSquare. And he keeps spreading the love far and wide. This past year I think he put 60% of his money into New York companies.

Engineering, Creativity, Sector Reform, Sector Revolution

Fred Wilson: The Creative Phase: The digital technology revolution was, from the day the transistor was invented in the late 40s until the early part of last decade, largely about engineering. It is still very much about engineering but I've been thinking for a while now that as this revolution matures, it is becoming more and more about creativity and less about engineering.

Fred calls it creativity and says maybe that is not the right word. He talks about engineers having become less central to tech startup efforts, and then backpedals, wait, I don't mean to say engineers are not important, they are.