Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Smart Cars Should Talk To Each Other


Toyota Prius IIIImage via WikipediaRobert Scoble's Not Google Car
Self Driving Google Car

Never mind that this might materialize towards the end of the decade and not any time soon, but I had an idea. Cars that drive themselves are not good enough. They should be able to talk to each other. You should be able to set your journey and have your car talk to other cars to form trains along the highway. So if you are programming your car to take you on a 10 hour ride on the freeway, other cars also going the same length and your car should be able to form a train in the middle lane, perhaps 10 cars per train. And of course this would be an intelligent train. It would be seeing the non train cars and keeping watch on them. The train will do what it takes to avoid accidents, up to and including breaking up. And if only all those cars are 100% electric, we will have solved a major, major problem. 100% electric cars by the end of the decade is not that ambitious.

Software just got wheels. Or perhaps it is the other way round.

You know what would be even better? 100% electric bullet trains that move at perhaps 500 miles per hour. Or even 300. Trains are way more efficient than cars. If you could have such train service that connect all major cities, and have metro trains inside all cities, that still leaves room for 100% electric taxi cabs. And rental cars. And even cars. But I think the heavy lifting should be for trains.

How about people work to design smart trains? What would be your idea of a smart train?

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Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Etsy, GroupOn, Zynga

Image representing Zynga as depicted in CrunchBaseImage via CrunchBase
Steven Carpenter

On Etsy
While eBay saw its marketplace growth stagnate at just over $1 billion a quarter, I see several areas Etsy must optimize just to pass $100 million in business
On GroupOn
No other startup has gone more quickly from launch to $1 billion+ in valuation except YouTube (12 months), which Groupon achieved in 16 months .... Groupon is achieving considerable revenue growth across all measures: more customers, higher deal prices, and rapidly expanding markets. ..... makes its model highly attractive (hence, every week seems to bring new copycats). .... Groupon gets more of its traffic from Facebook than any other site, including Google ...... the company does not hold any physical inventory and its customer acquisition costs are so low. ..... Groupon has raised a total of $171 million to-date, employs more than 200 people, and serves 52 markets. Its next biggest competitor, LivingSocial, has raised $49 million, employs about 50 people, and serves 14 markets. .... Groupon is far ahead. The data suggests that Groupon is not yet feeling the impact of all the new entrants. ..... There is no reason to believe that this concept couldn’t be extended to virtually any category or service provider.
On Zynga
Like YouTube, Twitter, and Groupon, social gaming pioneer, Zynga is a member of the “fastest from founding to $1B valuation” club, having earned its membership in just 19 months. .... over half of Facebook users are playing Zynga’s games .... Farmville alone now attracts over 100 million unique users per month, just 10 months after it launched. ..... PayPal said last week that Zynga is now its 2nd largest customer by volume ..... “Zynga Nation” ...... the beneficiary of a once-in-a-decade tectonic shift in the Internet landscape. ..... Zynga accounts for 31% of all active applications on Facebook, more than 2 times Facebook’s own apps ..... The company also continues to sit on a warchest of its largely unspent $219 million in venture capital that it was able to raise because of its rapid success. ..... Zynga’s incredible hockey stick growth of the past 2 years appears to have come to an end .... Games are the No. 1 application in the Apple App Store. Collectively mobile games are a $3B+ a year business
These three companies, especially Zynga and GroupOn, have grown very, very rapidly. Their rise has been dizzying. I have a feeling we will see more and more rapid rise companies. So when I ask, which is the next Zynga, I am not necessarily talking of the social gaming space. Actually, I am not. I am asking, what could be that next space that will create that next rapid rise company?

A lot of the action is moving to the mobile web space.

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