Monday, December 30, 2019

PropTech


Too many investors are looking for the next Instagram still, but innovation today is now about reimagining entire industries. One such industry now being upended is real estate. I'd put proptech right behind cleantech in how crucial it is for the future of humanity. After the climate crisis, the housing crisis is the number two crisis globally.

But far too many proptech startups are merely tweaking old processes. The big crisis is that there is this huge unmet demand. So the needed move is to meet that demand. The numbers are just huge.

There is old talk of atoms and bits. Bits move at the speed of light. Atoms? Not so much. And so pure software plays. But true proptech is about turning atoms into bits. You do that by adding tremendous intelligence. It is like Walmart stores now have Amazon virtual walls and isles.

I hope proptech provides a blueprint for a whole slew of other industries. There is an urgent need for bold entrepreneurs to think at truly large scales. Industry after industry stand to be reimagined.

You could reimagine education. You could reimagine health. You could reimagine the movie industry. Instead of listing all industries you can reimagine, I should try to list those that you can't. That list does not exist.

During the Internet era (the past quarter-century), the ceiling looked like a trillion dollars. You noticed when a company hit that mark in valuation. Over the coming quarter-century, trillion-dollar companies will be the new unicorns. If a billion dollar company is a unicorn, what is a trillion-dollar company? A tyrannosaurus, you say?


PropTech: What is it and how to address the new wave of real estate startups? Between automatization and uberisation, PropTech is both threatening and promising. ........ Zillow in the US, have been doing it for a long time ......

Proptech is one small part of a wider digital transformation in the property industry. It considers both the technological and mentality change of the real estate industry, and its consumers to our attitudes, movements and transactions involving both buildings and cities

......... Today, several verticals emerge within PropTech: the real estate market per se (PropTech), smart cities and buildings, the sharing economy, the home building industry (ConTech) and finance (FinTech). Both ConTech and FinTech have very close ties with the real estate industry. ....... with many sectors now being “uberised”, real estate has become a prized target, especially for investors.......

the first PropTech startup valued at over $1 billion was founded in 2016.

........ In new construction on the other hand, startups mostly operate as middlemen or as suppliers of hi-tech tools for developers. For the time being, that is........ Remember how the music industry turned a deaf ear to its challengers? Overly self-confident, it was unable to address the changes affecting music consumption. Today Spotify, Deezer or YouTube control music distribution across the globe. Same story with Kodak and digital photography........

a company might be able to use big data to locate building land, apply blockchain technology to streamline the purchasing process, print 3D models of homes and buildings, and use virtual reality to offer guided visits to sell these properties on the Internet.



Seeking an Edge, Developers and Investors Turn to ‘Proptech’

Investors Are Pouring Billions Into Proptech. Here's Who's Getting It Here are the biggest players in the real estate industry's billion-dollar transformation.

Property Technology
Where top VCs are investing in real estate and proptech (Part 1 of 2)
2020 will be the beginning of the tech industry’s radical revisioning of the physical world
What is PropTech and how is it revolutionising real estate?
7 Questions On Proptech That Will Make You Sound Like A Pro




















































Global Proptech Investment Hits Record High in First Half of 2019
Future of Proptech: The Next Billion-dollar Opportunities A new wave of Proptech opportunities is emerging to disrupt real estate and shake up the core underlying fundamentals on which the industry operates
Proptech: Game Changer in Real Estate Real estate sector may be in the doldrums but proptech offers a ray of sunshine
What is “PropTech” and why companies are developing it
What is proptech? It sounds like the latest tech trend to hit headlines and attract investment, but proptech is about more than digital transformation. Technology can help put purpose, culture shift and customer experience at the heart of the property sector
PropTech Startups Are Merging To Entice Big Real Estate Investors
PropTech: A Massive Opportunity We’re Seeing

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Sunday, December 29, 2019

Smart Cities





Source
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Saturday, December 28, 2019

Baidu Beats

Earlier this month, a Chinese tech giant quietly dethroned Microsoft and Google in an ongoing competition in AI. The company was Baidu, China’s closest equivalent to Google, and the competition was the General Language Understanding Evaluation, otherwise known as GLUE.

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Thursday, December 19, 2019

Fraud Alert: No Harm Done


My Real Estate Tech Startup Has A Loan Investment
Jassim Mohammed Al Seddiqi: Renaissance Man In The Gulf
Getting To Know Mustafa Kheriba

This is more sophisticated than the emails from "Nigerian princes," but still very much fraud.

7 Signs of a Personal Loan Scam Reputable lenders do not require you to pay a penny before you receive your loan. If you come across a personal loan lender that demands a processing, insurance or origination fee before they can approve you, walk away fast. The lender is likely a scammer hoping to make a quick buck off of you........ While legitimate lenders may charge application, appraisal and credit report fees, these are typically deducted from the amount you borrow.

Loans to Avoid There was a 10% decrease in complaints about loan scams and fraud in 2017, but the cost to American consumers still went up, reaching nearly $1 trillion....... consumers reported losing $905 million to scams in 2017, $63 million more than in 2016. The FTC credited education, awareness and enforcement for the positive trend in fewer complaints, but even with all that, consumers are still being taken for millions of dollars in fraudulent loan scams....... Financial scammers have never been more prevalent and they often prey on individuals who previously have been denied a loan. ...... About one-in-three adults is a victim of financial scammers ....... seniors are easy targets .......... nearly 33% of 1,260 respondents indicated they had been exposed to financial scams during the past five years, while one-third said that outsiders had used (or attempted to use) their accounts without permission. ........ 40% of Americans in their 20s who reported fraud in 2017 said they lost money, with a median loss of $400. That was a much higher rate than senior victims of financial fraud where only 18% of the 70-and-older group reported losing money. ....... The world has changed. Now there’s online banking and brokerage accounts, payday lenders, borrowing from your 401(k), Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), variable rate and adjustable mortgages … and seemingly, just as many complex financial scams designed to dupe consumers...... Upfront Fees — The lender might disguise these as application fees or document fees or some other name, but they all mean: “Send me some money before I perform any service.” Think about this: You are being asked to send money in order to be loaned money. That’s a scam. Legitimate lenders must disclose all their fees. Typically, they are rolled into the cost of the loan, not paid for in advance. ....... Wire Transfers — If the lender wants you to wire money for any fees, it’s a big cause for concern. Never wire money to an individual. Always ask for the lender’s physical address. Then contact the Attorney General or Financial Regulations office in that state to verify it’s a legitimate business. ........ Personal Information — Never give out your social security number, date of birth, bank account number or other important personal information unless you are convinced you’re dealing with a responsible lending institution. Personal information can be used for identity theft or stealing from your bank account. ....... Reviews — Online reviews have become influential when it comes to restaurants, museums and movies. They can also help you pick a reputable lender. You can simply Google the company or person’s name ......... Be wary if you’re offered a free period (like a year with no payments) before the loan must be repaid.

How fraudsters are gaming online lenders Online lenders’ advantage in speed has exposed them to a growing problem: a type of fraud called loan stacking........ People are taking advantage of the quick loan approval times online lenders offer to game the system by applying for multiple online loans in a short time before credit files update to reflect the increased debt load. By doing so, they are able to get more money than they would typically qualify for in any one loan.

How to avoid a personal loan scam If you’re faced with an “urgent offer,” you’ve likely found a scam. Legitimate lenders offer steady rates that depend on your credit. Pressure tactics are designed to drive you to act quickly, before you’re able to spot a scam in progress. ....... Loans demanding “processing,” “insurance” or even “origination” fees before approval are a scam. A lender asking for payment before it’s processed your application is a scammer looking for a quick buck. ...... Legit lenders generally never charge anything until you receive your loan — though some might deduct an origination fee from the funds before it shows up in your bank account.

The Rise Of Mortgage Fraud: How To Spot Common Schemes


Fraudster poses as Jason Statham to steal victim's money
A fraudster posing as Hollywood actor Jason Statham cheated a British woman out of hundreds of thousands using an online scam ......... police warn such crimes are at "epidemic" levels, with Greater Manchester Police (GMP) receiving reports of about 1,000 victims a month. ....... Detectives fear the true figure may be up to 10 times higher as many fraud victims never come forward.........

"It's the volume crime of the 21st Century." ....... A recent estimate put the total lost to fraud each year in the UK at about £110bn.

...... One victim from the North West of England told BBC Radio Manchester she had lost a fortune after being targeted by a fraudster who has "just got no feelings at all"...... The woman, who asked not to be named, said she was targeted at a vulnerable time following the deaths of both her mother and fiancé.......... "I'm quite a strong person but obviously certain things get to you and you let your guard down," she said......... The woman said she was first contacted online by someone posing as Mr Statham while she was on a Facebook page dedicated to the Fast and Furious star. ...... "I thought 'Oh, that's nice of him, talking to his fans'......... There were an estimated 3.6 million fraud offences in England and Wales in 2018...... it is "much more likely for an adult…to experience fraud than a violent offence". ...... 6.6% of adults, just over 3 million people, had experienced some form of fraud in the year ending December 2018. .....

GMP was unable to prosecute anyone over the fraud, with the person responsible believed to be operating from overseas.



'Britain's oldest scam victim': 103-year-old loses £60,000 in 10-year catalogue fraud Elderly widower ends up with 'house full of incredibly overpriced products' after ending up on a 'suckers' list'

This name and this picture are obviously pure fiction: Yahya Al-Wazna. Dubai Police, please take note.

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Sunday, December 15, 2019

Lithium-Ion Battery Vs Iron Low-Energy Battery Vs Silicon Anode Battery

In the early-1990s, lithium-ion energy storage systems replaced nickel cadmium batteries to serve the burgeoning cellphone and consumer electronics markets. More recently, they are being used in medical equipment and electric vehicles.

Tesla is building massive “gigafactories” to produce lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and Tesla Energy’s storage solutions business, including its newest Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, China. GM just announced a multibillion-dollar investment in a lithium-ion battery plant in Ohio.

But lithium-ion batteries have limitations. They lose capacity the more they’re charged and discharged, eventually needing replacement, and on occasion have exploded or caught fire. Iron low-energy storage systems, by contrast, last indefinitely, with no environmental risks. Both systems store energy from solar, wind and water on power grids, pulling it off as needed and re-injecting it when not.

From 2010 to 2018, lithium-ion battery costs declined by 85% and are forecast to decline by another 50% by 2030

“And lithium ion can still compete at four hours. But as we move into the next phase of the energy transition, four hours isn’t going to cut it anymore. That’s why all these investors are asking if there’s a longer-duration technology that scales better than lithium ion. This is where flow batteries come in.”

“You can follow the money,” Finn-Foley said. “All the investors are smelling it.”

In October of this year, ESS, a manufacturer of low-cost, long-duration, iron-flow batteries for the global renewable energy infrastructure, secured $30 million in a Series C investment round from Breakthrough Energy Ventures, the group of private investors led by Bill Gates and fellow billionaires Jeff Bezos, Michael Bloomberg, Richard Branson and Jack Ma, among others.

investors see our technology as one that offers consumers a number of benefits over lithium ion — longer duration in order to have solar-plus as a base load, the ability to work in very hot environments, and indefinite cycles at a similar price point.”

Flow battery technology is not the only bet the big money is making on competitors to traditional lithium-ion batteries. Tesla employee No. 7, Gene Berdichevsky, who worked on the original Tesla Roadster’s battery, is now CEO of Sila Nanotechnologies, which took in $70 million from VC investors in 2018 for its silicon anode battery technology. Enevate, another silicon anode battery start-up — which is sometimes referred to as “next-gen” lithium ion — has raised more than $100 million in VC funding and includes GM battery partner LG Chem among its recent investors.


Bill Gates: 12/12/2016 A new model for investing in energy innovation Our new fund will invest more than $1 billion in clean energy breakthroughs...... today, I, along with an incredible group of people who care a lot about energy innovation, am announcing the launch of Breakthrough Energy Ventures (BEV), a fund that will invest more than $1 billion in scientific breakthroughs that have the potential to deliver cheap and reliable clean energy to the world........ an investment in a true energy transformation requires governments, research institutions, businesses, and private investors to work together. ..... Government funding gives scientists the freedom to come up with bold new ideas and try to prove they will work. But government research is not enough. The world needs the skills and resources of investors with experience driving innovation from a lab to the marketplace. The private sector knows how to take great research, turn it into a great product, and ultimately create a great company to bring a transformative technology to market........ During the Cold War, the Department of Defense developed a network of computers that could survive a nuclear attack, and private companies saw an opportunity to expand this technology to the public. Together, they created the Internet........ Unlike a software start up, getting a new energy technology from a lab to market takes a lot of infrastructure, a lot of upfront capital, and a lot of time....... The Breakthrough Energy Coalition created BEV to address some of those challenges in the energy market. We are willing to wait a longer time for returns than other funds. We have a higher tolerance for technical risk, because we know it’s tough to determine which technologies will succeed in a complicated energy market. ........ The fund is also driven by science. Because of the technical nature of succeeding in an energy market, we will build a team that knows as much about the science behind energy breakthroughs as the investment strategies necessary to build those businesses........ to be successful, you have to get the most out of the technology you already have while developing the technology you still need.

Flow battery While it has technical advantages over conventional rechargeables, such as potentially separable liquid tanks and near unlimited longevity, current implementations are comparatively less powerful and require more sophisticated electronics.

Lithium–silicon battery Silicon has a much larger specific capacity (3600 mAh/g) than graphite (372 mAh/g) ..... Silicon's large volume change (approximately 400% based on crystallographic densities) when lithium is inserted is one of the main obstacles along with high reactivity in the charged state to commercializing this type of anode

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Monday, December 09, 2019

Dubai: Remarkable City



What has happened is amazing. How fast it all has happened is amazing. What is even more amazing is what is about to happen.

Gulf Cup 2019
What's Up With Qatar!
Yemen's Roadmap To Peace
Kashmir Deserves Normalcy
"UAE Against All Violence And Terrorism"
Thoughts On The Middle East
Formula For Peace Between Israel And Palestine
The Stupidity Of The Ayodhya Dispute
Saudi-Iran: Imran Is The Only One Who Can
The Three Crown Princes Of The Gulf
UAE's Federal National Council
Middle East: Cold War, Cold Peace, Warm Peace
Dubai, Pakistan, Peace, Prosperity
Dubai: Videos (6)
Dubai: Videos (5)
The Dubai Sheikh Is A Business School Case Study
Dubai: Videos (4)
Dubai: Videos (3)
Dubai: Videos (2)
South Asians Working In The Gulf
Dubai: Videos (1)
Imran Khan: Education In Islam
Dubai: Photos (4)
Dubai: Photos (3)
Masa, MBS, And The Broader Investment Climate
Dubai: Photos (2)
Dubai: Photos (1)

As I see it, NEOM has been inspired by Dubai. Dubai exhibits that it is possible. I think the two will feed on each other and rise together. That is the thing about peace and prosperity. It is win-win.

NEOM: A Fundamental Departure For All Humanity?
NEOM: Governance
NEOM Beats Mars
NEOM: Wide Participation Will Enhance Chance Of Success
NEOM, Jerusalem: Twin Cities?
My Take On NEOM, The City
NEOM: A City













Brand UAE: we have so many good stories to tell the world but need a clear way of doing so those of us fortunate enough to live in the UAE already know the reasons why our nation is beloved by residents of more than 200 nationalities: the sunny climate, natural beauty, friendly people, a rich and unique culture, and values such as tolerance, generosity and inclusivity........ On the world stage, we have much to highlight. From our championing of interfaith dialogue and tolerance to our leadership in foreign aid, we are a constructive force in the world........ We empower our women to take ownership of their lives and the country’s future, invest in our youth and always try to generate optimism in a region that often needs it badly. We are progressive, ambitious and open. .....

Yet we do not always get the recognition we deserve. There are misconceptions and stereotypes about our country that are neither fair nor true.

...... “The UAE is at the heart of global economic, social and cultural development. The nation brand will deepen the country’s impact and soft power across the world.” ...... It is said that Abu Dhabi and Dubai are virtually unrecognisable from just 15 years ago. Abu Dhabi is a green oasis that serves as the beating heart of our federation. Dubai has risen from the desert to become a global centre of commerce and one of the world’s top tourist destinations. ....... From sending the first Emirati astronaut to space to announcing the world’s first artificial intelligence university in Abu Dhabi, the UAE is proud to be at the forefront of scientific development and social transformation....... the best brands are inclusive and for the UAE, that means celebrating the hundreds of nationalities who call this place home. The tolerance we display for each other, our faiths and our cultures is worth sharing with the world.


The Real Burj Khalifa (In The Foreground)







To: The Crown Prince Of Dubai
Dubai's Remarkable Economic Transformation
Silicon Valley And Dubai
My Real Estate Tech Startup Has A Loan Investment
The Next Wave In Innovation: Reimagining Entire Industries
Getting To Know Mustafa Kheriba
Jassim Mohammed Al Seddiqi: Renaissance Man In The Gulf





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Friday, December 06, 2019

NEOM: A Fundamental Departure For All Humanity?

That NEOM is an attempt at a fundamental departure for all humanity is not my idea or suggestion. That is the stated goal from the people who have come up with the project. Within that suggestion, I am offering my ideas.

The idea is a new city can itself be as innovative as a new company. And if that city were to become home to many new companies on the cutting edges of innovation, then that city as innovation would be something remarkable. Frankly, unprecedented. That is not New York City, that is not Silicon Valley. When Manhattan was just an uninhabited island, when California was just wilderness, and what we know as Silicon Valley was just apple orchards. But none of those places started with the clarity of ambition that NEOM is projecting.

I find it exciting to even think about the whole project. I see myself getting involved at some point. I am certainly open to it.

NEOM: Governance
NEOM Beats Mars
NEOM: Wide Participation Will Enhance Chance Of Success
NEOM, Jerusalem: Twin Cities?
My Take On NEOM, The City
NEOM: A City

I want to think in terms of all the ways it could go right. But I would also like to think of ways it could go wrong. Better now than when the failures have already materialized.

The number one word of caution is that the spiritual foundation has to be the number one priority. When Noah was around the world was full of engineers performing all sorts of tricks. Without a sound spiritual foundation, engineering is just gloom and doom.

I appreciate Prince Salman's bold attempt to wrest the narrative in the Islamic world. If Prophet Muhammad's (PBUH) wife was what today would be considered a CEO, maybe women today should also be running things. During the golden era of Islam, the Islamic world exhibited an immense thirst for knowledge, the kind that nurtures math and science. He is trying to take the region to a modernity that already existed.

All major religions talk of God as the creator. If there is only one creation, how many Gods do you think there are, right? That one God is always going to be more and bigger than whatever you understand God to be. Because God is infinite, and the human being is finite. A human being can not hope to understand God, only God's revelations.

Saudi Arabia stands to benefit from the whole project. It came up with the idea, it is offering all that land, and it is coming up with the seed capital. It only makes sense that it will benefit from it. The ask is not that big. All Saudi Arabia is asking in return is to give itself a diversified economy, a post-oil economy. I think that is fair enough. And very possible.

But it should also stick by its stance to step back a little and allow many others to participate. This has to feel like a clean slate to many parties. There are people in Silicon Valley who fantasize about opening up tech startup office spaces on ships out in the international waters off the California coasts. Let them come to NEOM. The US voter is tired of paying the bills for being the world's policeman. Let them see the promise of NEOM. There are many countries angling to create a multi-polar world. Let them participate in NEOM.

NEOM can not be a place where expensive consultants give their bad advice and run for the hills when things go awry. It can not be a place only for tech wizardry. The innovation has to be on many levels. There has to be a solid spiritual foundation. There has to be political innovation. There has to be social innovation. There has to be law enforcement innovation. There has to be governance innovation. There has to be an urban living innovation. There has to be a tourism innovation.

This new city has to learn from the oldest inhabited cities of the world for they carry wisdom. The truly new borrows heavily from the truly old.























Saudi Arabia Is Betting Its Future on a Desert Megacity Foreign Policy: November 2017 Can Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious plans jumpstart social and economic reform, or are they an expensive miscalculation? ........ “Welcome to the future of Saudi Arabia,” a Saudi tour guide intoned last week as she led guests into a showroom advertising values not traditionally associated with the kingdom: gender equality, environmental sustainability, and technological innovation....... After an IMAX-style introductory video, the first stop on this “megaprojects tour” was a model of one of three new futuristic cities that Saudi Arabia is set to break ground on next year, dubbed Qiddiya. Located 25 miles from the capital, Riyadh, the city is envisioned as an entertainment megaplex with everything from indoor ski slopes to roller coasters to a zoo. Guests on the preview tour could interact with a holographic lion or try out the mountain bike and race car simulators. Down the hall were previews of the second two cities, a Red Sea tourist resort and Neom, a tech hub that aims to have more robots than humans in its population. ........ The cities are part of Vision 2030, the kingdom’s ambitious plan to pivot the economy away from oil. The program was announced over a year ago, but the event, which ran from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26, was the “coming out” party — a chance for the global financial elite to see for themselves whether Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was, in the words of one investor, “for real.” The so-called Future Investment Initiative (FII) pulled in 3,500 attendees, including dozens of blue-chip executives. Crew members from the Saudi national airline helped guide potential investors through the hallways of the Ritz Carlton. Robot “concierges” stood outside panel rooms, playfully soliciting interaction and selfies. ........... The message was clear to all: For three decades, the state has worked assiduously to avoid offending the conservative religious elite, stalling the trappings of modernity that have catapulted development in cities such as neighboring Dubai. This conference was meant to seal that chapter and set out a new, aspirational end point. ....... “Before now, the government always made a balance between the liberal people and the conservatives. They gave this side something, [that] faction another thing,” said Amal al-Hazzani, a columnist at Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat and professor at King Saud University. “They kept trying to make that balance, until Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman came.… [H]e ended that era.” ........ Mohammed bin Salman is signaling to Saudis that they are embarking on a momentous reform project from which there is no turning back. Saudi Arabia will need a serious shaking up to bring its economic and social structure into the 21st century. ....... “Seventy percent of the Saudi people are less than 30 years old, and we will not waste 30 years of our lives dealing with extremist ideas — we will destroy them today,” Mohammed bin Salman told the gathering. “We want to live a normal life.” ........ Many conference attendees likely didn’t realize just how revolutionary certain aspects of last week’s event were. Bankers from London to Lagos enjoyed gender-mixed coffee breaks, where women weren’t required to wear the traditional abaya. There were no intermissions for prayers, which shut down Saudi businesses for 30 minutes multiple times a day. Only a handful of speeches began with the usual Islamic prayer. ......... ...Saudi Arabia’s urban dreams are almost absurdly large, and Mohammed bin Salman has been intimately involved in forming them. He first pitched the idea of building completely new cities in 2015, just after his father was elevated as king, and has since signed off on details — even down to the logo designs........ Neom, the centerpiece of the mega projects, will cover more than 10,000 square miles — 10 times the size of Luxembourg. An initial press release described the city as “the safest, most efficient, most future-oriented, and best place to live and work” in the world....... Every piece of life in Neom will be linked to artificial intelligence: roads and cars will adjust to avoid traffic, and grocery orders will be fed directly to drone delivery units. Hydroponic growers will farm produce without soil, utilizing electricity produced by solar panels........ The city aims to attract top tech talent from across the globe, incentivizing businesses to flock to Neom through preferential regulation. Social life and gender norms will be drawn from “global best practices,” a term that serves as the default answer to any question about how something in the city — whether transport or official language — will work.......... Mohammed bin Salman’s personal support and the emphasis on good regulations was “very reassuring. It’s also something that we didn’t hear in the last three decades.”...... State-led plans such as Neom often miss the organic, bottom-up tech ecosystem that breeds innovation. Meanwhile, the Gulf cities that Neom hopes to rival — Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and even Doha — have a decade-plus head start......... Watching corrupt ministers face charges, incompetent consultants lose their jobs, and longtime undersecretaries demoted is starting to change the work culture. Fatani says the new ethos is, “Just get it done.” ............ Mohammed bin Salman will surely need to remain mindful of simmering conservative frustrations. The very bureaucrats he aims to reform may also push back, quietly delaying projects, sitting on approvals, or just heading home from work early. The stagnating price of oil, skepticism from investors, or regional instability could also set progress back.













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Thursday, December 05, 2019

Innovation At Companies

Unfortunately, at many companies, innovation is like a treadmill purchased in January: it represents an idealized future vision that is abandoned all too quickly.





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Saturday, November 30, 2019

Climate Crisis: Another Perspective

Why Apocalyptic Claims About Climate Change Are Wrong Few have underscored the threat more than student climate activist Greta Thunberg and Green New Deal sponsor Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The latter said, “The world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change.” Says Thunberg in her new book, “Around 2030 we will be in a position to set off an irreversible chain reaction beyond human control that will lead to the end of our civilization as we know it.” ........... no credible scientific body has ever said climate change threatens the collapse of civilization much less the extinction of the human species ......... It’s not like climate doesn’t matter. It’s that climate change is outweighed by other factors. Earlier this year, researchers found that climate “has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential.”............... but it’s also true that economic development has made us less vulnerable, which is why there was

a 99.7% decline in the death toll from natural disasters since its peak in 1931.

.......... In 1931, 3.7 million people died from natural disasters. In 2018, just 11,000 did. And that decline occurred over a period when the global population quadrupled. ........ IPCC estimates sea level could rise two feet (0.6 meters) by 2100. Does that sound apocalyptic or even “unmanageable”? ......... Consider that one-third of the Netherlands is below sea level, and some areas are seven meters below sea level. You might object that the Netherlands is rich while Bangladesh is poor. But

the Netherlands adapted to living below sea level 400 years ago.

............ Humans today produce enough food for 10 billion people, or 25% more than we need ........ The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts crop yields increasing 30% by 2050. And the poorest parts of the world, like sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to see increases of 80 to 90%. ............ Wheat yields increased 100 to 300% around the world since the 1960s, while a study of 30 models found that yields would decline by 6% for every one degree Celsius increase in temperature............. Rates of future yield growth depend far more on whether poor nations get access to tractors, irrigation, and fertilizer than on climate change, says FAO.......... By 2100, IPCC projects the global economy will be 300 to 500% larger than it is today. Both IPCC and the Nobel-winning Yale economist, William Nordhaus, predict that warming of 2.5°C and 4°C would reduce gross domestic product (GDP) by 2% and 5% over that same period............. Climate change may threaten one million species globally and half of all mammals, reptiles, and amphibians in diverse places like the Albertine Rift in central Africa, home to the endangered mountain gorilla.......... Of the 10 variables that influence fire, “none were as significant… as the anthropogenic variables,” such as building homes near, and managing fires and wood fuel growth within, forests......... “If you want to minimize carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2070 you might want to accelerate the burning of coal in India today,” MIT climate scientist Kerry Emanuel said. ......... “It doesn’t sound like it makes sense. Coal is terrible for carbon. But it’s by burning a lot of coal that they make themselves wealthier, and by making themselves wealthier they have fewer children, and you don’t have as many people burning carbon, you might be better off in 2070.” .........

the extreme rhetoric is making political agreement on climate change harder.

....... “We shouldn’t be forced to choose between lifting people out of poverty and doing something for the climate.” ....... Happily, there is a plenty of middle ground between climate apocalypse and climate denial.


















Environmental Progress: Founder President
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