Monday, December 09, 2019

Dubai: Remarkable City



What has happened is amazing. How fast it all has happened is amazing. What is even more amazing is what is about to happen.

Gulf Cup 2019
What's Up With Qatar!
Yemen's Roadmap To Peace
Kashmir Deserves Normalcy
"UAE Against All Violence And Terrorism"
Thoughts On The Middle East
Formula For Peace Between Israel And Palestine
The Stupidity Of The Ayodhya Dispute
Saudi-Iran: Imran Is The Only One Who Can
The Three Crown Princes Of The Gulf
UAE's Federal National Council
Middle East: Cold War, Cold Peace, Warm Peace
Dubai, Pakistan, Peace, Prosperity
Dubai: Videos (6)
Dubai: Videos (5)
The Dubai Sheikh Is A Business School Case Study
Dubai: Videos (4)
Dubai: Videos (3)
Dubai: Videos (2)
South Asians Working In The Gulf
Dubai: Videos (1)
Imran Khan: Education In Islam
Dubai: Photos (4)
Dubai: Photos (3)
Masa, MBS, And The Broader Investment Climate
Dubai: Photos (2)
Dubai: Photos (1)

As I see it, NEOM has been inspired by Dubai. Dubai exhibits that it is possible. I think the two will feed on each other and rise together. That is the thing about peace and prosperity. It is win-win.

NEOM: A Fundamental Departure For All Humanity?
NEOM: Governance
NEOM Beats Mars
NEOM: Wide Participation Will Enhance Chance Of Success
NEOM, Jerusalem: Twin Cities?
My Take On NEOM, The City
NEOM: A City













Brand UAE: we have so many good stories to tell the world but need a clear way of doing so those of us fortunate enough to live in the UAE already know the reasons why our nation is beloved by residents of more than 200 nationalities: the sunny climate, natural beauty, friendly people, a rich and unique culture, and values such as tolerance, generosity and inclusivity........ On the world stage, we have much to highlight. From our championing of interfaith dialogue and tolerance to our leadership in foreign aid, we are a constructive force in the world........ We empower our women to take ownership of their lives and the country’s future, invest in our youth and always try to generate optimism in a region that often needs it badly. We are progressive, ambitious and open. .....

Yet we do not always get the recognition we deserve. There are misconceptions and stereotypes about our country that are neither fair nor true.

...... “The UAE is at the heart of global economic, social and cultural development. The nation brand will deepen the country’s impact and soft power across the world.” ...... It is said that Abu Dhabi and Dubai are virtually unrecognisable from just 15 years ago. Abu Dhabi is a green oasis that serves as the beating heart of our federation. Dubai has risen from the desert to become a global centre of commerce and one of the world’s top tourist destinations. ....... From sending the first Emirati astronaut to space to announcing the world’s first artificial intelligence university in Abu Dhabi, the UAE is proud to be at the forefront of scientific development and social transformation....... the best brands are inclusive and for the UAE, that means celebrating the hundreds of nationalities who call this place home. The tolerance we display for each other, our faiths and our cultures is worth sharing with the world.


The Real Burj Khalifa (In The Foreground)







To: The Crown Prince Of Dubai
Dubai's Remarkable Economic Transformation
Silicon Valley And Dubai
My Real Estate Tech Startup Has A Loan Investment
The Next Wave In Innovation: Reimagining Entire Industries
Getting To Know Mustafa Kheriba
Jassim Mohammed Al Seddiqi: Renaissance Man In The Gulf





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Friday, December 06, 2019

NEOM: A Fundamental Departure For All Humanity?

That NEOM is an attempt at a fundamental departure for all humanity is not my idea or suggestion. That is the stated goal from the people who have come up with the project. Within that suggestion, I am offering my ideas.

The idea is a new city can itself be as innovative as a new company. And if that city were to become home to many new companies on the cutting edges of innovation, then that city as innovation would be something remarkable. Frankly, unprecedented. That is not New York City, that is not Silicon Valley. When Manhattan was just an uninhabited island, when California was just wilderness, and what we know as Silicon Valley was just apple orchards. But none of those places started with the clarity of ambition that NEOM is projecting.

I find it exciting to even think about the whole project. I see myself getting involved at some point. I am certainly open to it.

NEOM: Governance
NEOM Beats Mars
NEOM: Wide Participation Will Enhance Chance Of Success
NEOM, Jerusalem: Twin Cities?
My Take On NEOM, The City
NEOM: A City

I want to think in terms of all the ways it could go right. But I would also like to think of ways it could go wrong. Better now than when the failures have already materialized.

The number one word of caution is that the spiritual foundation has to be the number one priority. When Noah was around the world was full of engineers performing all sorts of tricks. Without a sound spiritual foundation, engineering is just gloom and doom.

I appreciate Prince Salman's bold attempt to wrest the narrative in the Islamic world. If Prophet Muhammad's (PBUH) wife was what today would be considered a CEO, maybe women today should also be running things. During the golden era of Islam, the Islamic world exhibited an immense thirst for knowledge, the kind that nurtures math and science. He is trying to take the region to a modernity that already existed.

All major religions talk of God as the creator. If there is only one creation, how many Gods do you think there are, right? That one God is always going to be more and bigger than whatever you understand God to be. Because God is infinite, and the human being is finite. A human being can not hope to understand God, only God's revelations.

Saudi Arabia stands to benefit from the whole project. It came up with the idea, it is offering all that land, and it is coming up with the seed capital. It only makes sense that it will benefit from it. The ask is not that big. All Saudi Arabia is asking in return is to give itself a diversified economy, a post-oil economy. I think that is fair enough. And very possible.

But it should also stick by its stance to step back a little and allow many others to participate. This has to feel like a clean slate to many parties. There are people in Silicon Valley who fantasize about opening up tech startup office spaces on ships out in the international waters off the California coasts. Let them come to NEOM. The US voter is tired of paying the bills for being the world's policeman. Let them see the promise of NEOM. There are many countries angling to create a multi-polar world. Let them participate in NEOM.

NEOM can not be a place where expensive consultants give their bad advice and run for the hills when things go awry. It can not be a place only for tech wizardry. The innovation has to be on many levels. There has to be a solid spiritual foundation. There has to be political innovation. There has to be social innovation. There has to be law enforcement innovation. There has to be governance innovation. There has to be an urban living innovation. There has to be a tourism innovation.

This new city has to learn from the oldest inhabited cities of the world for they carry wisdom. The truly new borrows heavily from the truly old.























Saudi Arabia Is Betting Its Future on a Desert Megacity Foreign Policy: November 2017 Can Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious plans jumpstart social and economic reform, or are they an expensive miscalculation? ........ “Welcome to the future of Saudi Arabia,” a Saudi tour guide intoned last week as she led guests into a showroom advertising values not traditionally associated with the kingdom: gender equality, environmental sustainability, and technological innovation....... After an IMAX-style introductory video, the first stop on this “megaprojects tour” was a model of one of three new futuristic cities that Saudi Arabia is set to break ground on next year, dubbed Qiddiya. Located 25 miles from the capital, Riyadh, the city is envisioned as an entertainment megaplex with everything from indoor ski slopes to roller coasters to a zoo. Guests on the preview tour could interact with a holographic lion or try out the mountain bike and race car simulators. Down the hall were previews of the second two cities, a Red Sea tourist resort and Neom, a tech hub that aims to have more robots than humans in its population. ........ The cities are part of Vision 2030, the kingdom’s ambitious plan to pivot the economy away from oil. The program was announced over a year ago, but the event, which ran from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26, was the “coming out” party — a chance for the global financial elite to see for themselves whether Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was, in the words of one investor, “for real.” The so-called Future Investment Initiative (FII) pulled in 3,500 attendees, including dozens of blue-chip executives. Crew members from the Saudi national airline helped guide potential investors through the hallways of the Ritz Carlton. Robot “concierges” stood outside panel rooms, playfully soliciting interaction and selfies. ........... The message was clear to all: For three decades, the state has worked assiduously to avoid offending the conservative religious elite, stalling the trappings of modernity that have catapulted development in cities such as neighboring Dubai. This conference was meant to seal that chapter and set out a new, aspirational end point. ....... “Before now, the government always made a balance between the liberal people and the conservatives. They gave this side something, [that] faction another thing,” said Amal al-Hazzani, a columnist at Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat and professor at King Saud University. “They kept trying to make that balance, until Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman came.… [H]e ended that era.” ........ Mohammed bin Salman is signaling to Saudis that they are embarking on a momentous reform project from which there is no turning back. Saudi Arabia will need a serious shaking up to bring its economic and social structure into the 21st century. ....... “Seventy percent of the Saudi people are less than 30 years old, and we will not waste 30 years of our lives dealing with extremist ideas — we will destroy them today,” Mohammed bin Salman told the gathering. “We want to live a normal life.” ........ Many conference attendees likely didn’t realize just how revolutionary certain aspects of last week’s event were. Bankers from London to Lagos enjoyed gender-mixed coffee breaks, where women weren’t required to wear the traditional abaya. There were no intermissions for prayers, which shut down Saudi businesses for 30 minutes multiple times a day. Only a handful of speeches began with the usual Islamic prayer. ......... ...Saudi Arabia’s urban dreams are almost absurdly large, and Mohammed bin Salman has been intimately involved in forming them. He first pitched the idea of building completely new cities in 2015, just after his father was elevated as king, and has since signed off on details — even down to the logo designs........ Neom, the centerpiece of the mega projects, will cover more than 10,000 square miles — 10 times the size of Luxembourg. An initial press release described the city as “the safest, most efficient, most future-oriented, and best place to live and work” in the world....... Every piece of life in Neom will be linked to artificial intelligence: roads and cars will adjust to avoid traffic, and grocery orders will be fed directly to drone delivery units. Hydroponic growers will farm produce without soil, utilizing electricity produced by solar panels........ The city aims to attract top tech talent from across the globe, incentivizing businesses to flock to Neom through preferential regulation. Social life and gender norms will be drawn from “global best practices,” a term that serves as the default answer to any question about how something in the city — whether transport or official language — will work.......... Mohammed bin Salman’s personal support and the emphasis on good regulations was “very reassuring. It’s also something that we didn’t hear in the last three decades.”...... State-led plans such as Neom often miss the organic, bottom-up tech ecosystem that breeds innovation. Meanwhile, the Gulf cities that Neom hopes to rival — Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and even Doha — have a decade-plus head start......... Watching corrupt ministers face charges, incompetent consultants lose their jobs, and longtime undersecretaries demoted is starting to change the work culture. Fatani says the new ethos is, “Just get it done.” ............ Mohammed bin Salman will surely need to remain mindful of simmering conservative frustrations. The very bureaucrats he aims to reform may also push back, quietly delaying projects, sitting on approvals, or just heading home from work early. The stagnating price of oil, skepticism from investors, or regional instability could also set progress back.













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Thursday, December 05, 2019

Innovation At Companies

Unfortunately, at many companies, innovation is like a treadmill purchased in January: it represents an idealized future vision that is abandoned all too quickly.





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Saturday, November 30, 2019

Climate Crisis: Another Perspective

Why Apocalyptic Claims About Climate Change Are Wrong Few have underscored the threat more than student climate activist Greta Thunberg and Green New Deal sponsor Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The latter said, “The world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change.” Says Thunberg in her new book, “Around 2030 we will be in a position to set off an irreversible chain reaction beyond human control that will lead to the end of our civilization as we know it.” ........... no credible scientific body has ever said climate change threatens the collapse of civilization much less the extinction of the human species ......... It’s not like climate doesn’t matter. It’s that climate change is outweighed by other factors. Earlier this year, researchers found that climate “has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential.”............... but it’s also true that economic development has made us less vulnerable, which is why there was

a 99.7% decline in the death toll from natural disasters since its peak in 1931.

.......... In 1931, 3.7 million people died from natural disasters. In 2018, just 11,000 did. And that decline occurred over a period when the global population quadrupled. ........ IPCC estimates sea level could rise two feet (0.6 meters) by 2100. Does that sound apocalyptic or even “unmanageable”? ......... Consider that one-third of the Netherlands is below sea level, and some areas are seven meters below sea level. You might object that the Netherlands is rich while Bangladesh is poor. But

the Netherlands adapted to living below sea level 400 years ago.

............ Humans today produce enough food for 10 billion people, or 25% more than we need ........ The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts crop yields increasing 30% by 2050. And the poorest parts of the world, like sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to see increases of 80 to 90%. ............ Wheat yields increased 100 to 300% around the world since the 1960s, while a study of 30 models found that yields would decline by 6% for every one degree Celsius increase in temperature............. Rates of future yield growth depend far more on whether poor nations get access to tractors, irrigation, and fertilizer than on climate change, says FAO.......... By 2100, IPCC projects the global economy will be 300 to 500% larger than it is today. Both IPCC and the Nobel-winning Yale economist, William Nordhaus, predict that warming of 2.5°C and 4°C would reduce gross domestic product (GDP) by 2% and 5% over that same period............. Climate change may threaten one million species globally and half of all mammals, reptiles, and amphibians in diverse places like the Albertine Rift in central Africa, home to the endangered mountain gorilla.......... Of the 10 variables that influence fire, “none were as significant… as the anthropogenic variables,” such as building homes near, and managing fires and wood fuel growth within, forests......... “If you want to minimize carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2070 you might want to accelerate the burning of coal in India today,” MIT climate scientist Kerry Emanuel said. ......... “It doesn’t sound like it makes sense. Coal is terrible for carbon. But it’s by burning a lot of coal that they make themselves wealthier, and by making themselves wealthier they have fewer children, and you don’t have as many people burning carbon, you might be better off in 2070.” .........

the extreme rhetoric is making political agreement on climate change harder.

....... “We shouldn’t be forced to choose between lifting people out of poverty and doing something for the climate.” ....... Happily, there is a plenty of middle ground between climate apocalypse and climate denial.


















Environmental Progress: Founder President
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Monday, November 25, 2019

Tesla Cybertruck Unveil

Why is it called a cybertruck? Why not simply a truck? Is it because it is a lot of software with a little bit of metal and glass thrown in?





Meet the Cybertruck, Tesla's Ford-Fighting Pickup Elon Musk has revealed the latest Tesla model, promising hundreds of miles of range for about $40,000. ....... the top-of-the-line variant, starting at $69,900, will go more than 500 miles between charges, hit 60 mph in under 3 seconds, tow up to 14,000 pounds, and start production in late 2022. ..... Musk spoke to the importance of entering the pickup segment, one of the most popular in the US....... for unclear reasons, it’s bulletproof, at least to a 9-millimeter handgun...... Pickup trucks make up roughly 15 percent of US vehicle sales, a share that has steadily grown since 2009 .......

The Ford F-150 has been the top-selling passenger vehicle in the US for 36 years straight; Americans buy nearly a million every year.

... General Motors nets, on average, $17,000 per pickup. ...... On high-end models with the sorts of options that push sale prices above $100,000, that margin can reach $50,000. ...... The large, expensive vehicles accommodate large, expensive batteries better than a compact sedan does....... Pickup customers are less likely to live in an apartment building than a single-family house where they can install a home charger. On the other hand, public charging infrastructure is hardly developed in the middle of the country where pickups are especially popular. ........ Pickup buyers.. hardly consider fuel economy when shopping. They care about capability and reliability. Plus, compared with other drivers, they’re particularly loyal to their brands of choice.......... For the Cybertruck to succeed the way the Model 3 has, Tesla must steal the customers Ford, GM, Chrysler, and other automakers most value. ....... The Roadster, Model S, Model X, and Model 3 also hit the market well after Musk’s targets. Once they did, they came off the line slowly and with problems.



https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck

Tesla Cybertruck: Impressive Specs, Killer Price, Polarizing Looks What was revealed has some damned impressive claimed specs — pretty close to Musk’s boasts that it needs to be better than a Ford F-150 and a Porsche 911 — and a price that made the audience gasp. What was revealed also looks like a 32-bit rendering of that truck you tried to doodle in class before you remembered that you’re bad at drawing. It’s a very interesting mixed bag....... The internet is already full of memes based on the looks of the Cybertruck, because the internet remains undefeated. Musk’s “armored personnel carrier from the future” looks like what the Ghost of Video Games Past drives........ the Cybertruck is bulletproof. Tesla claims the 30-times cold-rolled steel body can withstand a 9 mm bullet fired from 10 meters away........ After dropping metal balls from varying heights on sample pieces of traditional car glass (shattered right away) and the Cybertruck’s “armor glass” (never broke), Musk had Tesla chief designer Franz von Holzhausen throw one of the metal balls at the windows of the Cybertruck on stage. Twice. And each time, the window cracked significantly. Musk was quick to point out that nothing broke into the cabin, and joked about fixing it “in post,” but it was an extremely awkward and deeply funny moment that is going to be replayed on TV and online again and again........ we’re still waiting for the new Roadster two years after its reveal


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Give It For Bachchan










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NEOM: Governance

I have been blogging about NEOM much recently. I have read little on the topic, and have said much. But on this one topic, I have read nothing. And here are my comments.

The NEOM territory will be a little bit of Egypt, a little bit of Jordan, and a lot of Saudi Arabia. And Saudi Arabia will let go. That is my impression. The Saudi judiciary will have no jurisdiction over NEOM. That is my impression. That is a decision that has already been made.

Saudi Arabia is dangling a wallet with 500 billion dollars in it. But it has to have the humility to see this is not a 500 billion dollar project. This is at least a five trillion dollar project with most of the money coming from beyond Saudi Arabia. Easy math will tell you, Saudi Arabia will have to be willing to give 90% ownership to others. Which others?

NEOM has to be a fresh start for humanity like America was a fresh start for Europe.

But there is land. It is Saudi land, primarily. And the 500 billion dollar does not count the land. The land eventually is worth more than that wallet. After the city of NEOM is up and standing, NEOM land might fetch Manhattan prices. But that is not now.

Walking away from the Saudi judiciary is fine, that is how you give a place a fresh start, but that can not be walking away from God and faith. Every major faith emphasizes family and marriage.

At some level, this is existential for Saudi Arabia. This is do or die. The world needs to walk away from oil for climate crisis reasons. And oil is on its way to getting priced out. So Saudi Arabia has this window in time to diversify and become a post-oil economy. I think it can. It should. Done right the future riches will be greater than the oil riches. Nokia used to be a timber company long before it became a phone company. Great companies and great countries transform as necessary.

NEOM will be a new city. It will be a city-state. Like the Vatican is its own country. That is what I read somewhere. And I don't see how it could work any other way. 500 billion dollars is but seed money. It is a small amount compared to the ambition.

Heck, NEOM could create a world government. Every country willing to pay 1% of its GDP as an annual membership fee would be welcome to join the world government that would have its seat in NEOM, a city-state, a country of its own. That world government can co-exist with the UN. The UN functions more like an NGO. It does not function much like a government. The whole veto thing is so outdated. The UN can keep doing the UN thing. No problem.

The world government would be funded by that membership fee. It would have two chambers. In the lower chamber each country's voting weight would be in proportion to its population. In the upper chamber it would be in proportion to its GDP.

The world government would have a president directly elected by people all over the planet voting on their phones and tablets, using their biometric IDs. The president of the world would also be president of NEOM, but NEOM would also elect a Prime Minister. And that Prime Minister voted in by all residents of the city who have lived in the city for at least a year, would be the one running the city. The president for the city would be more ceremonial.

The city could have a prince in a ceremonial role. The prince of Saudi Arabia can be the prince of NEOM. Why not? Thanks for all that land.

NEOM should have a permanent seat for the world government. It should also have a permanent seat for the T100, the governing body of the 100 biggest technology companies in the world measured by market cap. Issues like data privacy and data security this T100 needs to solve.

And a Consortium of Cities (CC), an annual gathering of the 100 biggest cities in the world. This would be more like an organization for comparing notes and sharing best practices.

The city would provide all government services digitally. The city would use surveillance cameras to attempt a zero crime rate but would do so with the highest standards for privacy protection. Every time anyone enters or leaves the city, they would have to press the finger and submit their biometric ID. They would also have to be willing to do an iris scan and a face scan.

I understand there is a lot of paranoia around biometric IDs, much of it justified, because those who do it seem to have little respect for privacy protection.

All the high tech stuff would be happening in the private sector with individual companies participating. So when there is a failure it is a company and not the city failing. That demarcation is important. There will be plenty of failures. There is no innovation where there are no failures.

Taxes can be as low as possible. The city might even do the Dubai thing for a few decades and have no taxes. Land development pays enough to run the city.

And those are my early thoughts on NEOM governance.






NEOM Beats Mars
NEOM: Wide Participation Will Enhance Chance Of Success
NEOM, Jerusalem: Twin Cities?
My Take On NEOM, The City
NEOM: A City



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Saturday, November 23, 2019

The Man Who Solved The Market

Book recommended by Jassim Alseddiqi.




The Man Who Solved the Market employed at the IDA in Princeton ...... While I’ve often heard the story of how he was fired from IDA after publicly criticizing the Vietnam War, less well known is that a big problem was that he was quoted in Newsweek saying he planned to work on his own projects, not government ones, until the war was over.

How to Beat the Market “a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by the experts.” ........ the market is so efficient that even professional investors have little chance of beating it on a regular basis. If there’s one reason index funds, which replicate the performance of market indexes like the S&P 500, now hold $4.3 trillion (yes, trillion) in assets .......

Jim Simons is not a blindfolded monkey.

A former code-breaker for the United States government and a brilliant mathematician, Simons founded the most successful investment firm the world has ever seen........ even Warren Buffett’s track record — 20.5 percent annualized returns since 1965 — doesn’t approach Simons’s average of 39 percent gains over a three-decade span. And that’s after his company has taken a 5 percent management fee and 44 percent of the profits. ....... How does Simons do it? We know that his firm, Renaissance Technologies, helped pioneer quantitative investing, relying on complex computer programs rather than human judgment, to make trading decisions. .......... on the subject of his investing success, he is secretive to the point of paranoia. Employees sign ironclad nondisclosure agreements, and are told to avoid media appearances and industry conferences. ........ “combinatorial game theory” and “stochastic equations” ....... turns out that a firm like Renaissance, filled with nerdy academics trying to solve the market’s secrets, is way more interesting than your typical greed-is-good hedge fund....... Simons first began investing as a young man after receiving $5,000 as a wedding gift. He was a commodities speculator for a short time....... a computerized stock trading system that could search — and I’m quoting Zuckerman here — “for a small number of ‘macroscopic variables’ capable of predicting the market’s short-term behavior.” ......... In 1978, Simons left Stony Brook University, where he had built its math department into one of the best in the country, to start the firm that we now know as Renaissance Technologies........ They collected incredible amounts of historical data — not just about stocks and bonds, but about currencies, commodities, weather patterns and all sorts of market-moving events. They made plenty of missteps along the way. But in time, they had gathered so much data — and had computers powerful enough to ingest that data — that the machines found profitable correlations no human could ever suss out, much less understand....... one of the most interesting was the firm’s former co-chief executive, Robert Mercer, the conservative billionaire who funded Breitbart News and Cambridge Analytica. Zuckerman portrays Mercer as “a peculiar but largely benign figure within the company” who liked to zing his liberal colleagues, but mostly kept his own counsel. When his role in conservative politics caused an outcry, Simons felt he had to ask his longtime partner to step down as co-C.E.O. But even though Simons himself was a liberal, he wasn’t happy about it. “He’s a nice guy,” Zuckerman quotes Simons telling a friend. “He’s allowed to use his money as he wishes.” ........

Simons makes money because human behavior will never be completely “efficient.”

...... humans have always acted emotionally ..... “I think the market is reasonably close to efficient,” another well-known quant, Clifford Asness, once told me, “but there are a lot of little inefficiencies.” Those little inefficiencies are what emotionless computers take advantage of. ....... “For all the unique data, computer firepower, special talent and trading and risk-management expertise Renaissance has gathered, the firm only profits on barely more than 50 percent of its trades, a sign of how challenging it is to try to beat the market — and how foolish it is for most investors to try.” ....... In other words,

stick to index funds.






The Man Who Solved the Market — how Jim Simons built a moneymaking machine Gregory Zuckerman’s book lifts the lid on the enimgatic founder of Renaissance who launched the quant revolution ......... The profound and the inane alike are debated on Quora, a website where the curious (or plain bored) can pose questions to the internet hive mind. ......... Renaissance Technologies, a fabled yet secretive hedge fund ......Last year, a rival recounted how he had once nearly poached someone from Renaissance, only to be stymied at the last minute. “I read about him years later,” the Quora contributor wrote. “He bought an Alp. As in . . . an actual mountain in Austria.” ....... the awestruck fascination that Renaissance commands in finance. ...... Machines and algorithms have taken over swaths of markets, supplanting the grizzled traders of public perception, and no one has harnessed computer science and vast data sets to invest as successfully as Renaissance. “It’s the gold standard of computer trading,” one rival once ruefully admitted to me......... Even most people in finance would struggle to identify Simons out of a line-up of similarly disheveled octogenarians. Indeed, his chain-smoking, silver beard, wryness and reluctance to wear socks all make him seem more like a Coen Brothers character than a colossus of investing........ Quoting Benjamin, Animal Farm’s wise old donkey, Simons said:

“‘God gave me a tail to keep off the flies. But I’d rather have had no tail and no flies.’ So, that’s kind of the way I feel about publicity.”

....... the most fascinating man in financial markets: a liberal mathematician who once motorcycled from Boston to Bogotá, was ejected from the Soviet code-cracking team at the Institute for Defense Analyses for opposing the Vietnam war, and then built the most relentless of moneymaking machines. ..... Renaissance has generated over $100bn in trading profits since 1988 — more than any other hedge fund in history — making millionaires of many of its employees, and several billionaires. Forbes puts Simons’ fortune at above $21bn, leaving other hedge fund magnates and financiers such as Ray Dalio, George Soros and Stephen Schwarzman trailing......... Quantitative finance — as it is dubbed — may seem a recondite subject to many people, but it is profoundly reshaping the investment industry, and thus capitalism itself. And Renaissance is the shining example of what can be achieved by applying modern technology, big data and lots of brainy people........... Renaissance is also emblematic of an era where technology helps money and power accrue to an increasingly small number of people. The choices that these people make can reverberate globally. While Simons has become one of the world’s biggest backers of scientific research and philanthropy — and a host of Democratic politicians — his former colleague Robert Mercer has funnelled his billions into the far-right Breitbart News, the election of Donald Trump and Cambridge Analytica, the political consultancy ........

Renaissance’s first years were spent in a poky office in a Long Island strip mall. Regulators once came calling after recommendations spat out by the early algorithms saw Renaissance nearly cornered the potato market.

......... Failure often loomed. When Renaissance’s first foray into bond markets turned into big losses, Simons admitted to a colleague that “sometimes I look at this and feel I’m just some guy who doesn’t really know what he’s doing”...... Renaissance has enjoyed a golden run the likes of which investing has never seen. When it notched up its first $1m one-day profit in 1990, Simons handed out champagne — but $1m one-day gains quickly “became so frequent that the drinking got a bit out of hand” ........ For all Simons’ undoubted brilliance, the book makes clear that his skill was not inventing complex trading models and algorithms himself. His talent was to spot, nurture and harness beautiful but often combustible minds such as James Ax, Lenny Baum, Elwyn Berlekamp, Henry Laufer, Peter Brown and Mercer........ one of the biggest actors in one of the biggest stories of our time: how machines conquered financial markets.





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NEOM Beats Mars

If you have read three articles on NEOM, it is fair to say you are no NEOM expert, and I am no NEOM expert. I expect to read up on it a little bit more. But sometimes it is an advantage to have read less. That gives you a freshness of perspective.

NEOM: Wide Participation Will Enhance Chance Of Success
NEOM, Jerusalem: Twin Cities?
My Take On NEOM, The City
NEOM: A City

Every astronaut has been an athlete. You need to be in an absolute great shape physically to experience that pressure on your body when the rocket accelerates at rocket speed to get out of the clutches of earth's gravity. This means everyone who buys a ticket from Elon to go to Mars will have to attain that athlete status. And that's for the first part of the journey when gravity is a big problem. Then you have a nine-month journey of being in a no gravity zone. That actually is harder on the body. Lack of gravity is very challenging for your bones, for your eyes, for your body in general. And there no amount of physical training can prepare you.

But NEOM does not have that Mars problem. NEOM is on earth. Mars has been sold as a fresh start for humanity. NEOM can be that fresh start. But it has to be a fresh start in many ways. It has to be a fresh start politically, economically, technologically.

NEOM needs peace. NEOM needs the Saudi-Iran regional cold war to end. NEOM needs genuine peace between Israel and Palestine. Peace is necessary infrastructure.

Also, NEOM is not going to have, so what air do we breathe issues. It is not going to have radiation issues. Earth has a magnetic field that protects it from solar radiation.

There are also psychological issues. If you keep people in a small space for too long, many get claustrophobic. And they start acting up.


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Elon Musk's Giant Blind Spot: Human Beings



Humans Will Never Colonize Mars The Red Planet is a cold, dead place, with an atmosphere about 100 times thinner than Earth’s. The paltry amount of air that does exist on Mars is primarily composed of noxious carbon dioxide, which does little to protect the surface from the Sun’s harmful rays. Air pressure on Mars is very low; at 600 Pascals, it’s only about 0.6 percent that of Earth. You might as well be exposed to the vacuum of space, resulting in a severe form of the bends—including ruptured lungs, dangerously swollen skin and body tissue, and ultimately death. The thin atmosphere also means that heat cannot be retained at the surface. The average temperature on Mars is -81 degrees Fahrenheit (-63 degrees Celsius), with temperatures dropping as low as -195 degrees F (-126 degrees C). By contrast, the coldest temperature ever recorded on Earth was at Vostok Station in Antarctica, at -128 degrees F (-89 degrees C) on June 23, 1982. Once temperatures get below the -40 degrees F/C mark, people who aren’t properly dressed for the occasion can expect hypothermia to set in within about five to seven minutes............. The notion that we’ll soon set up colonies inhabited by hundreds or thousands of people is pure nonsense.......... Gravity on the Red Planet is 0.375 that of Earth’s, which means a 180-pound person on Earth would weigh a scant 68 pounds on Mars. While that might sound appealing, this low-gravity environment would likely wreak havoc to human health in the long term, and possibly have negative impacts on human fertility. ........ the unfulfilled visions proposed during the 1940s and 1950s........ “Back then, cover stories of magazines like Popular Mechanics and Popular Science showed colonies under the oceans and in the Antarctic,” Friedman told Gizmodo. The feeling was that humans would find a way to occupy every nook and cranny of the planet, no matter how challenging or inhospitable ........ “But this just hasn’t happened. We make occasional visits to Antarctica and we even have some bases there, but that’s about it. Under the oceans it’s even worse, with some limited human operations, but in reality it’s really very, very little.” As for human colonies in either of these environments, not so much. In fact, not at all, despite the relative ease at which we could achieve this...... Unlike other fields, development into human spaceflight, he said, “has become static.” Friedman agreed that we’ll likely build bases on Mars, but the “evidence of history” suggests colonization is unlikely for the foreseeable future........ astronauts on the ISS, who are subject to tremendous muscle and bone loss, try to counteract the effects by doing strength and aerobic training while up in space. As for treating the resulting negative health impacts, whether caused by long-duration stays on the ISS or from long-term living in the low-gravity environment of Mars, “we’re not there yet” ........ It’s a dangerous delusion to think that space offers an escape from Earth’s problems. We’ve got to solve these problems here. Coping with climate change may seem daunting, but it’s a doddle compared to terraforming Mars. No place in our solar system offers an environment even as clement as the Antarctic or the top of Everest.

There’s no ‘Planet B’

....... Martian terraforming is a pipedream, a prospect that’s “way beyond any kind of technology we’re going to have any time soon” ....... radiation on Mars is far worse than we thought, adding that “we don’t have the long-term solutions yet, unless you want to risk radiation illnesses.” Depending on the degree of exposure, excessive radiation can result in skin burns, radiation sickness, cancer, and cardiovascular disease........ Life in a Martian colony would be miserable, with people forced to live in artificially lit underground bases, or in thickly protected surface stations with severely minimized access to the outdoors. Life in this closed environment, with limited access to the surface, could result in other health issues related to exclusive indoor living, such as depression, boredom from lack of stimulus, an inability to concentrate, poor eyesight, and high blood pressure—not to mention a complete disconnect from nature......... we don’t see colonists living in Antarctica or under the sea, so why should we expect troves of people to want to live in a place that’s considerably more unpleasant? ....... for prospective families hoping to spawn future generations of Martian colonists, it’s borderline cruelty. ...... Studies of astronauts who have participated in long-duration missions lasting about a year exhibit troubling symptoms, including bone and muscle loss, cardiovascular problems, immune and metabolic disorders, visual disorders, balance and sensorimotor problems, among many other health issues. ...... Some astronauts, like NASA’s Scott Kelly, never feel like their old selves again, including declines in cognitive test scores and altered gene function. ........ The regolith, or soil, on Mars is toxic, containing dangerous perchlorate chemicals, so that also needs to be avoided. To grow crops, colonists will likely build subterranean hydroponic greenhouses. This will require specialized lighting, genetically modified plants designed specifically for Mars, and plenty of water, the latter of which will be difficult to source on Mars.........

We may be stuck on Earth.



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Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Hate Less, Love More (Via Talal Al Murad)

Via Talal Al Murad (One Of The Top 50 Most Influential People On LinkedIn)


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