Wednesday, November 20, 2019

NEOM: Wide Participation Will Enhance Chance Of Success

I know very little about NEOM right now. I have been upfront about that. 500 billion dollars is a lot of money. But not entirely enough to build a city. There necessarily will have to be wide participation, and the many stakeholders that will come to join the ranks will all knock on the wood. That feedback loop might not always be convenient. It might even slow things down now and then. But overall that will be a good thing. That will enhance the chances of success.

NEOM, Jerusalem: Twin Cities?
My Take On NEOM, The City
NEOM: A City

What can NEOM do to enhance its chances of success?

(1) Wide Participation: Wider the better.

(2) $500 Billion Has To Be A Force Multiplier: If that $500 billion is the primary fund, it is obviously not enough money to build a city 33 times the size of New York City. NEOM has to feel like Europeans going to America, a land to give themselves a fresh start. And so techie gimmicks are not going to be enough. If you only have money and robots and cars and buildings, you could just end up with a white elephant.

(5) NEOM Needs Peace: There has to be peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors. The Palestine issue has to be resolved. Peace is the necessary precondition to prosperity anywhere.

(6) The Economic Viability Test: Cutting edge stuff can start in NEOM, but if they only stay in NEOM, if they can not be scaled to many parts of the globe, chances are that particular techie gimmick is not economically viable. Most stuff that is being dreamt for NEOM is going to have to pass that viability test. Otherwise, you just end up with a bunch of expensive failures. What that means is NEOM needs an active feedback loop that ties it to the rest of humanity.

(7) Attracting Top Tech Entrepreneurs: Can NEOM attract many of the top tech entrepreneurs of the emerging technologies? A defining quality of the golden era of Islam was an enormous thirst for knowledge. That thirst has to be brought back.







Saudi Arabia's NEOM: A US$500 Billion City Being Built 'For A New Way Of Living' Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced on Tuesday the Kingdom’s most ambitious plan yet to free itself from dependency on oil. Prince Salman revealed a US$500 billion proposal to build a new transnational “independent special zone” on the Red Sea coastline that extends into Jordan and Egypt. Strategically located in proximity to international markets and trade routes, the 26,500 square km zone -dubbed as NEOM- is set to be powered by renewable energy, and has its eyes on incorporating elements of key sectors such as energy, advanced manufacturing, biotech, and media & entertainment........ will operate independently from the “existing governmental framework,” and is said to be funded by the Saudi government, its sovereign wealth fund, and local and international investors ....... Dr. Klaus Kleinfeld, the former Chairman and CEO of Alcoa and Arconic Inc. has been appointed as CEO of NEOM. “The NEOM project is set to transform the Kingdom into a leading global innovation and trade hub through the introduction of value chains of traditional and future industries and technologies to stimulate local industry, private sector job creation and GDP growth in the Kingdom” ........ The completion of the first stage of the project is expected to be by end of 2025, and its contribution to the Kingdom’s GDP is projected to reach “at least $100 billion by 2030.” It’s exciting times ahead for Saudi Arabia as the world watches how the Kingdom follows through on its ambitious economic and social upheaval plans.



I just read this phrase: "the world's first independent special zone." That is intriguing. Somebody said Catalonia has not been able to break away from Spain, but Saudai Arabia is voluntarily shedding NEOM! I think the idea of an independent city state is great. That will allow for maximum participation from numerous stakeholders. That is the only way to ensure success.

NEOM has to be able to compete with Dubai in terms of being able to attract people from all over the world. The number one quality I look for in any city anywhere is cultural diversity.

This is not just about technology. This is also about political innovation. And starting from scratch is the best way. May I suggest a few things?

All government services should be digital, and people should be able to vote on their phones, for a week. And anyone who has lived in the city for at least a year is automatically a voter.

Create a T100 along the lines of G20. These are the top 100 tech companies in the world as measured by market cap. They are given a Senate like space where to meet every year.

NEOM ought to have active ties with the 100 biggest cities in the world. In fact, build a Consortium Of Cities (CC). The mayors of the 100 biggest cities in the world meet here annually. To share best practices. To tackle big problems.

King Salman chooses staycation in Neom, Saudi Arabia’s new $500bn resort King Salman will avoid France this year to stay at the as-yet-unbuilt Neom, which artists’ impressions have labelled a City of the Future ........ When times are hard even Saudi monarchs are forced to forego the pleasures of the Mediterranean and opt for staycations......... King Salman, famed for the opulence and scale of his summer holidays in the South of France and Morocco, is staying this year in a new resort being built on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast.













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Tuesday, November 19, 2019

NEOM, Jerusalem: Twin Cities?

My Take On NEOM, The City
NEOM: A City
Getting To Know Mustafa Kheriba
Vertical Forests
Apple, Android, And Ancient Greece
Neil Sahota, Andrew Yang And The Creative Destruction Of Jobs By Robots And AI
The Real Burj Khalifa (In The Foreground)

I have had a little bit more time to think about NEOM in the back of my mind. Ends up it is all about location, location, location!

The make or break part of the concept of NEOM is, can it be economically viable? In NEOM's case that means, can it attract some of the top tech entrepreneurs of the emerging technologies? Lucky for NEOM, because Israel is right there.

The tiny nation of Israel beats all of Europe when it comes to tech, and Europe is no slouch. The idea can no longer be accepting Israel. The idea now has to be to embrace Israel.

Embrace these days means to build a hyperloop from NEOM to Jerusalem to Tel Aviv. Egypt is building itself a new capital. It could be a triangular hyperloop: NEOM to Jerusalem to Cairo.





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Monday, November 18, 2019

My Take On NEOM, The City

Today I got to connect online with Mustafa, who I believe is Man Friday to Mr. Jassim, by all impressions Michael Jordan to Finance in the Gulf Region, the man with a Midas touch, the turnaround artist, someone to watch.

(Full disclosure: Noor Almuna chaired by Mr. Jassim has approved a loan towards my real estate tech startup.)

I started reading some of Mr. Mustafa's articles online. In one article he mentioned NEOM. This was obviously not the first time I had heard of it. In fact, I heard of it when it was first announced. But I had not had a chance to dig deep into it. Today I got that chance. Digging deep is actually quite a surface level digging. You do a simple Google search, and you read the first few articles that show up. If the Google algorithms are screwed, you are screwed.

NEOM: A City

I'd like to read up on it some more before I start commenting.

Western media is always biased. It is because when you are a newspaper in a capitalist country, all you really care about is eyeballs and page hits. Ca-ching. So reading western newspapers can not be anyone's idea of searching for the truth. But as long as you are aware there is bias, you can extrapolate. You can condense some of the facts, and try and ignore the opinions. And form your own opinions.

Here's a recent example of the media trying to create a fight when none existed.

Having said that, I don't believe it is too early for me to make some comments on NEOM.
  • NEOM has fired up the imagination for the region and the world. This is like Prince Salman's own Mars. Elon Musk might or might not go to Mars, but Mars has been tremendous for his marketing.
  • I commend the desire to do something bold. Saudi Arabia (and the region at large) faces a 10-year window to diversify or face decline. Only something big and bold might work. I am reading a book right now called "The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming by David Wallace-Wells," and I am thinking, if someone were to make a movie out of it, it would be the top horror movie in movie history. Global warming is not 10 years from now. It is today. It is already happening. The very concept of wealth makes zero sense in a post-warming world.
  • Another reason is economic. Cleantech has been seeing exponential rates of advances. That will lead to plummeting prices. Oil is going to get priced out.
  • NEOM has to make economic sense, first and foremost. It has to be economically viable. Can NEOM attract some of the top tech entrepreneurs of the emerging technologies? That is the make or break question. And I don't know the answer to that.
  • Genetic engineering of human beings is a red flag. All humanity has to be part of the moral/ethical debate on that one. The whole Khashoggi thing was a major PR disaster for the kingdom globally. And that is without pointing fingers on who did it. A genetic engineering disaster is going to be Khashoggi times 100 in terms of PR mess, big enough to sink the entire project.
  • You can do flying cars, why not? But they have to be economically viable. Are they viable? Do the math. And see for yourself.
  • I think the world underestimates the amount of conservative friction/opposition the prince faces inside Saudi Arabia because it is a monarchy. In his own way he has been Saudi Arabia's own royal Mikhail Gorbachev. He has opened up things. Women drive. Young people attend pop concerts. These have been big changes to the Saudi scene.
  • The number one thing I noted was, NEOM is going to be its own judicial jurisdiction independent of the judiciary in Saudi Arabia. I consider this a masterstroke, politically speaking. The Dubai Sheikh did something similar when he created the financial hub in Dubai. And that is what made it possible.


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NEOM: A City

Saudi Arabia wants NEOM to have flying cars, a fake moon, and 24/7 surveillance The futuristic city-state rising on the northwestern corner of Saudi Arabia ....... aims to transform 10,000 square miles of desert into “the world’s most liveable city” ....... a place of extreme automation, surveillance, and wealth meant to attract large Western companies, help diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy, and decrease its financial reliance on oil. .........

NEOM could be the next Dubai, but with far more advanced technologies and an urban ecosystem built from scratch that would rival every major metropolis in the world

...... NEOM might not be fully realized due to the reported corruption that exists within the Saudi government. Right now, many countries are hesitant to do business there because of it. Even architects and major leaders in the field who previously committed to and served on NEOM’s advisory board are flat-out refusing to work with the country anymore.......... Located on the very edge of Saudi Arabia where the Red Sea meets Egypt, Israel, and Jordan, NEOM features a masterplan that’s rather inconceivable and extremely expensive, but construction is already underway and an airport has already been built. Here are some of the consultants’ big ideas: flying taxis to take residents to work, robot maids to clean peoples’ homes, beaches with glow-in-the-dark sand, cloud seeding to bring rain to the hot desert, a hologram faculty teaching at leading local schools, a robot dinosaur island that serves as a tourist attraction, and state-of-the-art medical facilities where scientists will work to “modify the human genome to make people stronger.” Last but not least, MBS wants to build an artificial moon that would light up the city at night. While that could be accomplished with drones, one of the more nefarious ideas proposed by MBS himself is the constant surveillance of NEOM’s citizens through facial recognition technology and a legal system operating outside the bounds of Saudi Arabia’s courts............ the proposal for NEOM was dreamt up by a team of U.S.-based consulting and management firms.......... Boston Consulting Group, McKinsey & Company, as well as Oliver Wyman, were working on the project....... recommendations go beyond urban planning and include a slew of economic incentives and legal systems that NEOM could utilize to both lure residents and keep them there. ...... NEOM‘s first phase of development is expected to be completed by 2025






Virgin Hyperloop One hits major bumps in the wake of Saudi controversy Last month, Saudi Arabia nixed a deal to construct a hyperloop in that country after former chairman Richard Branson criticized the kingdom’s alleged killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The Saudis announced a $1 billion investment in Virgin Galactic, another venture by Branson, after Branson stepped down as the chairman at Hyperloop. ...... With Branson and Lloyd gone, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has stepped in as the new chairman. His company, DP World, a UAE-based shipping and logistics group, is now Virgin Hyperloop One’s largest investor.



Robot cage fights and flying taxis: leaked documents reveal Saudi Arabia’s plans for its next megacity Neom could be $500 billion city-state or another colossal waste of wealth .......... The riches of Silicon Valley have enabled some extravagant and quixotic projects, but they’ve got nothing on what oil money can do. ...... Saudi Arabia’s biggest megaproject yet: a city built in the desert named Neom, where robots will outnumber humans and hologram teachers will educate genetically-enhanced students............ The details are stunning. It’s a mixture of dystopian fiction (AI surveillance cameras everywhere!) and childish imaginings (let’s build a robot dinosaur park!). Taken together, the plans remind of you what a dedicated nine-year-old can achieve in Minecraft. Yes, the scale and ambition are impressive, but it’s not like you could do this in real life, right?............. proposals, of course, dreamt up by American consulting firms like McKinsey and Boston Consulting who have no incentive to bring Saudi leaders down to Earth. But all the same, they give you a flavor of what trillions of dollars of oil wealth will do to your sense of proportion .......... plans from Japanese tech giant Softbank to create “a new way of life from birth to death reaching genetic mutations to increase human strength and IQ.” ....... “I don’t want any roads or pavements. We are going to have flying cars in 2030!” said Prince Fahd bin Sultan, the region’s governor, in a planning meeting. Another planning document reportedly read: “Driving is just for fun, no longer for transportation.” ........ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, saying he wants the city to attract the “world’s greatest minds and best talents.” ....... bin Salman “envisions Neom the largest city globally by GDP, and wanted to understand what he can get with up to 500 billion USD investment.” ........ The project is the flagpole of Saudi Arabia’s plans to diversify the country’s economy away from oil. ....... The project is the flagpole of Saudi Arabia’s plans to diversify the country’s economy away from oil. ......... As currently planned, Neom will occupy a region the size of Massachusetts. This will include a huge coastal urban sprawl; outlying towns and villages; advance manufacturing hubs in industries like biotech and robotics; and links with international shipping routes. Early building work has already begun, with facilities including a new airport and palace. ............. A lot of factors have stopped Saudi Arabia attracting international business thus far ..... corruption, a difficult legal system, and social norms that range from unappealing to straightforwardly immoral for Western visitors. .......... a country in the desert desperately trying to turn oil riches into a technological haven before it’s too late.











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Getting To Know Mustafa Kheriba

Mustafa G. Kheriba

Opinion: The UAE's shift towards becoming a hub for financial innovation The country's financial sector shows how leading the pack leads to unprecedented value ....... The United Arab Emirates has emerged as a shining example of how a traditional oil powerhouse can diversify its sources of national revenues away from oil to other industries. ..... the banking sector in the UAE continues to be quite fragmented, with 23 domestic banks and 29 foreign institutions operating onshore, as well as a plethora of alternative finance companies that exist to serve SMEs and retail clients whom have exhausted traditional banking lines and offerings. ........ hydrocarbons sector will continue to be the compelling force behind anticipated growth for the near future ......... The UAE banking sector recently saw the merger of two dominant players, First Gulf Bank and National Bank of Abu Dhabi, creating one of the largest financial institutions regionally, with the breadth and scale to be competitive globally....... property markets across the emirates continuing to show softening trends in prices and depressed yields ....... Fintech is redefining modes of operation in the financial industry, and we are witnessing unprecedented levels of change and growth....... Fintech – which is now omnipresent in the industry – is providing the critical elements of swift action, more convenience and higher accessibility to the delivery of financial services. The influx is exceptionally transformational and continues to gain momentum........ The UAE has been at the forefront of such changes, with the introduction of e-banking, e-dirhams, online platforms and regulatory bodies such as the Abu Dhabi Global Markets and Dubai International Financial Centre serving as bright examples of how the country is becoming a hub for financial services innovations in the region. ........ as the country works towards a roadmap for the UAE’s centennial in 2071



THE GCC: OPPORTUNITY BORN FROM POSITIVE MOMENTUM Why the GCC is geared to become one of the most rewarding investment destinations in 2018 Sovereign wealth institutions in the region are among the wealthiest in the world, and the investment appetite for diversifying national sources of revenue has always been healthy. ....... we are seeing a fundamental change. The GCC is increasingly becoming a destination for capital deployment with ample opportunities for investment in various sectors such as hydrocarbons, healthcare, education and real estate to name a few. ........ The oil crisis has had a positive impact in allowing the regional regimes to explore new avenues of income. ...... A big theme I predict in 2018 is consolidation, as well as acquisitions outside of the region that will help with the diversification of funding sources and capital inflows. ...... the quiet before the storm of 2018. The region will see the best and fastest to come in the next few years........ The robust economies of the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to lead the pack. ......... Saudi Arabia is in a positive momentum given the recent reforms implemented by HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Salman the Crown Prince. The fight against corruption surge that has been going on in the last few months has given great hope to the people and to the positive growth momentum of the economy in general. The initiatives are moving Saudi Arabia away from secular and rigid Islam, to more moderate and mainstream Islamic beliefs and practices.................... He has been named among the top 50 MENA Fund Managers in the 2015 and 2016 annual survey conducted by MENA FM. Mustafa holds a BA from the University of Toronto, and an MBA from Ohio Dominican University with Magna Cum Laude honours.


A LETTER FROM ABU DHABI On innovation and why Brexit does not represent erosion of value Abu Dhabi has been aspiring to be the Middle East and regional hub for everything from regulated financial services through setting up Abu Dhabi Global Market, to arts and culture and the highly anticipated opening of the Louvre Abu Dhabi. It is where we call home, and from where we aim at conquering the world........ Spending time in Riyadh at the Future Investment Initiative was both inspiring and aspirational. His Royal Highness Prince Mohammad bin Salman laid out what he sees as beyond the Vision 2030 to outline a new remarkable city, Neom, and a bright future for the Kingdom. ....... the adamancy that moderate Islam is the only way forward and the accepted path, while eradicating extremism was key .......... Today, and after only six years of launching the company out of Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Financial Group (ADFG) has become synonymous with opportunistic investing and an astute deal making. Our platforms now expand across multiple geographies with a particular focus on public equities, private equity, real estate, debt and technology. Early in 2011 we launched the first secondary private equity fund that served to provide liquidity to an otherwise cash crunched microeconomic environment. The fund focused on limited partners who invested in regional funds. Good assets held by ailing investors was the key message that helped us realize handsome returns by acquiring these positions at significant discounts to their intrinsic value....... At over $5 billion of direct assets under management, ADFG is considered a serious contender and a market maker. One of our key calls to fame is our real estate development activities in the UAE and London. Today we stand as the largest private developer of new builds in prime central London with over £3 billion worth of projects underway.

The reality of real estate Real estate has always been the surest way to accumulate wealth – and is likely to remain so. Yet, the financial crisis of 2008 changed the game, and brought a healthy dose of reality back to the real estate sector. Today, as investors look at this asset class again with renewed optimism, we need to ask ourselves if we have truly learned the lessons of the past five years. ........ real estate has provided investors with a stronger and steadier return than any other investment option. It has an uncanny ability to bounce back after a downturn and outperform other asset classes......... The 2008 crisis was a case of the pursuit of profit crowding out sensible investment decision making. ....... Many lost vast sums of capital when property values plunged by half. ...... Abu Dhabi and Dubai real estate sales showed a significant upward trend from Q4 2011 to Q2 2012. Despite a slowdown during the third quarter, year-on-year activity was still higher, suggesting that Abu Dhabi and Dubai’s real estate market is well on the path to recover.......... and with the absence of property taxes and income tax, the value becomes extremely competitive, especially compared to other major cities around the world........ thanks to more people investing in completed projects rather than speculating on off-plan developments. ....... The UAE’s sophisticated regulatory milieu, highly developed financial infrastructure, and a legal system increasingly following rules of global best practices, provides a healthy investing environment for both home buyers and investors alike. In addition to the solid commercial infrastructure, the time is right to capitalise on the underlying value waiting to be unlocked in the UAE real estate sector.

























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Sunday, November 17, 2019

Vertical Forests










Africa is set to get its first vertical forest pollution-absorbing trees and plants in Egypt's New Administrative Capital, which is under construction in the desert east of Cairo ....... the trio of cube-shaped, seven-storey buildings ........ The buildings will have planted terraces containing 350 trees and 14,000 shrubs of more than 100 different species. One of the three buildings will be a hotel, while the other two will house apartment units........ The planned new capital will eventually host ministries, embassies, residential neighbourhoods and a financial district. It will replace the current capital, Cairo, which suffers from severe overcrowding, traffic congestion and air pollution........ Vertical forests pack thousands of square metres of greenery into just a few hundred square metres of urban space, providing shade and creating habitats for birds and insects ........ The trees, shrubs and plants absorb carbon dioxide, produce oxygen and filter dust from the air......... The concept took off in 2014, with Milan’s Bosco Verticale, a pair of residential 110- and 76 meter tower blocks, designed by Boeri, with around 900 trees and more than 20,000 smaller plants and shrubs........... The trees and plants in Liuzhou Forest City are expected to annually absorb 10,000 tonnes of CO2 and 57 tonnes of pollutants, while producing about 900 tonnes of oxygen.

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Friday, November 15, 2019

Apple, Android, And Ancient Greece






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Neil Sahota, Andrew Yang And The Creative Destruction Of Jobs By Robots And AI

Neil Sahota argues that, yes, jobs will be destroyed, but many more and higher quality jobs will be created. That jobs will be destroyed is much talked about. But that new jobs will be created is not much talked about. Neil's take is much-needed optimism in an otherwise gloom and doom mood swing.


Thanks To Robots, Humans Are Finally In Demand the most employable people in the future will be those who act like … well, people........ there is one area where A.I. is going to be very slow to surpass human intelligence: The Arts. That’s why we now talk about STEAM. ....... the importance of developing “soft skills” to thrive in a future in which robots can do tedious work once reserved for mankind. “We should be emphasizing problem-solving, leadership, creativity, collaboration, and, of course deploying emotional intelligence” ....... “We created an assembly-line system meant to churn out assembly-line workers” ...... “The bell rings, you move to where the schedule puts you, the bell rings again, you do as you’re told. Everyone gets processed in the same way, and at the end of the line you emerge with a certificate of quality.” ...... Automatons, while adept at taking orders, are not valued for their critical thinking abilities. ........ there are many robots capable of doing repetitive tasks, from stocking warehouses to dispensing prescriptions. ....... So, what can’t robots do? .... They cannot think. They cannot feel, dream, or imagine. And there are many theorists who suggest they never will...........

Unlike during the previous era, the coming automation age will prize human attributes like never before.

........ rather than being a zero-sum scourge upon the workforce, the rise of A.I. promises to tilt the nature of work in wonderfully positive, unprecedented ways....... we’re at the dawn of a new vocational reality. Today’s workforce stands to benefit not by taking orders or fulfilling rote tasks, but by doing what makes us uniquely human. .........

creativity is the most important skill for thriving in the 21st century



Andrew Yang: Yes, Robots Are Stealing Your Job Self-driving trucks will be great for the G.D.P. They’ll be terrible for millions of truck drivers.......... most factory job losses from 2000 to 2010 were caused by automation ........ 88 percent of factory job losses from 2000 to 2010 were caused by automation. ....... Automation doesn’t just affect millions of factory workers and truck drivers. Bookkeepers, journalists, retail and food service workers, office clerks, call center employees and even teachers also face the threat of being replaced by machines.......... 83 percent of jobs paying less than $20 per hour could have substantial parts of their work given over to automation....... Around five million manufacturing jobs have been lost since 2000, with automation being a main factor. Many of those jobs were in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa — states that swung to Donald Trump in 2016. ...... about half of the Michigan workers who left the labor force may have filed for disability and many might never get off it, as the rate at which people come off disability benefits is extremely low. We then saw surges in suicides and drug overdoses to the point where life expectancy has either declined or stayed flat for three years in a row, something that hasn’t happened since the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918......... ....stock market prices don’t mean much to the 78 percent of workers in this country who are living paycheck to paycheck or the 40 percent of workers who are a $400 bill away from financial crisis ........ Human-centered capitalism would ensure that people are more important than money and that markets exist to serve our common goals and values....... four in 10 people in the United States live with unhealthy air or that nearly three in five adults with mental illness do not get treated..........

Our G.D.P. is over $20 trillion, and yet the average American is struggling.

..... A millennial has only a 50-50 chance of doing better than their parents. For someone born in the 1940s, the likelihood was 90 percent. The American dream is dying by the numbers.


For Andrew Yang, New Hampshire is a "homecoming" and a big bet At the very top of every New Hampshire stump speech, presidential candidate Andrew Yang notes his somewhat tenuous connection to the state: "How many of you know I went to high school in New Hampshire?" ..... "When I first showed up here in New Hampshire, I was like, does that count?" Yang chuckled to college students at Plymouth State University. "They were like, 'Oh yeah, that counts.'" ...... While other 2020 contenders have slashed New Hampshire based staff and travel in favor of Iowa, Yang has spent more days campaigning in the Granite State than any other presidential candidate this year, with more than 70 appearances in 2019 alone. He placed a "mid-six figure" television ad buy in the state on Thursday, rolling out two new spots. ........ ....Last month, the political upstart rendered a bold declaration about his campaign to nearly one hundred witnesses in a packed coffeehouse: "If this does not come out of New Hampshire, it dies." ....... Conversations with half a dozen of Yang's high school friends reveal a rebellious teen, albeit the kind that still aces exams and arrives early to Glee Club. "Andy" was "low-key funny," wore a black trench coat, and openly hated school. ...... "James Dean was like a rebel without a cause, right? He didn't give a s***," high school friend and close confidant Fiona Singer says. "He's a rebel with a cause, for sure. The free-thinking kind." ...... Hat sales have raised $1.2 million for the campaign, accounting for approximately 8% of all fundraising revenue........ "To give you an order of magnitude, you're looking at something like 60,000 voters would put you in the top 2 or 3, in all likelihood, in New Hampshire," he said recently at a rally in Boston........ "If we get 60,000 people on board with our message in New Hampshire, then imagine the headlines in February of 2020."



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Thursday, November 14, 2019

The Real Burj Khalifa (In The Foreground)

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#Dubai 🦒

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Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Older Entrepreneurs Are Better (Research Finding)






there seemed to be this very consistent finding that the likelihood of entrepreneurial success rises with age....... age reflects many, many things in life. We know that with age, many benefits accumulate, including your social ties — your relationship with suppliers and potential hires and co-founders — as well as financial wealth and human capital that you gain from working in different companies. ....... You could have the Zuckerbergs and Sheryl Sandbergs on a team, where you have a very young entrepreneur and perhaps an older manager to balance out those views. ....... when you look at just the Zuckerbergs and Gates of the world, you’re really cherry-picking the examples that the media likes to show. When we look at those individuals and their career histories, there is some evidence that over time they get better as operators and entrepreneurs of real companies. Even in that example, we have reasons to think that age is still an advantage in terms of being an entrepreneur. ...... this link between entrepreneurship and age is a really strong one. ......

venture capital often favors the young

...... They may know what’s happening, but they also know that there’s greater bargaining power against young entrepreneurs. ...... I’ve spoken to many executive MBA students who are in their early 40s and late 30s, and I’ve heard many perspectives that it might be too late for them to become entrepreneurs. What we want to do is discourage and dispel that myth because what we’re finding is they actually might be in the best position to start new companies. ........ We’re looking at immigrant entrepreneurs and the role that they play in creating jobs in the U.S. economy versus the jobs that are perhaps being “taken” by new immigrants in the U.S., and really comparing those two streams.

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Friday, November 08, 2019

Bill Gates, Elizabeth Warren, And Andrew Yang



Bill Gates is in news saying something like, I have already paid $10 billion in taxes, "more than anyone else," and you can have 10 billion more if you want, but if you want all of the 100 billion, I got a problem with that.

Now the media being what it is (they want a fight!) all sorts of brand name media outlets (this is not yellow, tabloid journalism, this is mainstream media, the kind that informs heads of state early in the morning) are saying Bill Gates prefers Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren. After all, he is just another rich guy.

First off, Warren has never proposed taking all of Bill Gates' money. Her 2% wealth tax means Bill Gates would pay two billion, which is less than the 10 billion he has already offered to pay.

Second, someone who might be super smart in one niche might or might not be equally informed in another niche, or in the same niche in another era. We think Tesla was so smart, Elon Musk has named his most famous company after him, and Musk is today, and Tesla was indeed smart. But Tesla never bought into whatever Einstein was proposing. Tesla was a pre-relativity kind of guy.

Bill Gates is a PC-era guy. No tech entrepreneur who starts in 2020 can not buy into the idea of a Universal Basic Income (which I have never defined as American Basic Income). UBI is to the fourth industrial revolution what electricity was to the second and what the internet has been to the third. It is basic. It is infrastructure.

In all fairness, I did not hear Bill Gates say anything about UBI. I'd be very surprised if he was opposed to it. But if he is saying, you have already taken 10 billion from me, take 10 billion more, but don't take away the entire 100 billion, because I have a foundation to run.

Only the mainstream media can interpret that as an attack on Elizabeth Warren, or the idea of UBI. I can't.

I actually subscribe to Bill Gates' newsletter. So he has a tendency to show up in my inbox. He is a smart interesting guy doing good work, although it is my firm conviction 100 Gates Foundations will not be able to solve the problems of the world, what we need is a world government.







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Wednesday, November 06, 2019

Has Softbank Gone Soft?

SoftBank: blind spots threaten Masayoshi Son’s $100bn Vision As the global business elite deserted a Saudi Arabian investment summit a year ago, after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents, the founder of Japan’s SoftBank slipped into Riyadh for a discreet meeting.......... Masayoshi Son and his chief lieutenant, Rajeev Misra, were there to see Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince who had helped to make them the world’s most influential technology investors. Almost half of SoftBank’s $97bn technology-focused Vision Fund — the biggest pool of private money ever raised — came from the young royal’s sovereign wealth fund. ........... plans for a long-awaited sequel to the Vision Fund are in serious doubt. ....... Armed with Gulf capital, SoftBank poured into every corner of the digital economy and fuelled some of the world’s most richly valued private companies. Following Mr Son’s advice, many burnt cash in feverish pursuit of scale and market share above all else. ..........

Returning to Riyadh last week for the latest Future Investment Initiative, known as “Davos in the Desert”, Mr Son was met by an almost-empty room for his panel discussion. The weary-looking billionaire, who at one point appeared to fall asleep, insisted he would keep offering capital to start-ups so they could “grow much bigger and quicker”. 

........ “We identify the entrepreneurs who have the greatest vision to solve the unsolvable,” he said. “They need to have the strongest passion. And then we provide the cash to fight.” ....... SoftBank shares have plummeted 26 per cent in the past three months. ......... The struggles have laid bare a sharp-elbowed culture within the Vision Fund, which is led by Mr Misra and seen as rife with mistrust, managerial disorganisation and clashes between executives. ......... Uber is now down 31 per cent from its listing price, with the Vision Fund sitting on more than $800m in paper losses since its investment. Other investments have suffered too: office messaging group Slack has dropped nearly 45 per cent since its first day of trading in June, while Vir Biotechnology has fallen 30 per cent since its mid-October listing. Only two Vision Fund-backed companies, Guardant Health and 10X Genomics, are trading above their IPO price.........

One hedge fund investor says backing from the Vision Fund is “an immediate cue to sell”.

...... The steady procession of IPOs was intended to validate the Vision Fund’s late-stage bets and lay the groundwork for juicy returns that would make big-money investors clamour to pour money into its next Vision Fund. The group would look to list at least two portfolio companies per month by 2020, Mr Misra said earlier this year. ......... The biggest blow, however, came from a company whose founder Mr Son has praised and lavished with billions of dollars since 2017, saying it would be worth a few hundred billion one day. ........ The close bond between Mr Son and WeWork founder Adam Neumann had begun to sour long before its disastrous attempt to list in September. ........ “We created a monster,” Mr Son has told colleagues. “We gave him all the capital.” ....... “WeWork is not the only one weak asset,” says Atul Goyal, an equities analyst at Jefferies. “We suspect there are many such questionable investments or assets within SoftBank Vision Fund’s 80-plus investments.” ........ Other bets, such as a $500m investment into UK virtual simulation start-up Improbable, are not expected to generate any returns. Fair, the car subscription start-up that partners with Uber, recently revealed plans to cut 40 per cent of its workforce as it struggles to become profitable. Wag, the dog-walking company backed by a $300m Vision Fund cheque, has been earmarked for sale. ......... “Money in the right hands, right founders and right potential long-term platforms works,” said

Nikesh Arora, Mr Son’s former heir apparent, who abruptly resigned in 2016

, at a CNBC event last week. “But it doesn’t work willy-nilly on every pet-walking and hotel room-renting website.” ....... It is hard to formulate a cohesive picture of SoftBank and the Vision Fund, in part due to Mr Son’s incessant dealmaking, and also because of the extreme levels of financial engineering employed by Mr Misra......... One of the most powerful credit traders from a pre-crisis generation of Wall Street bankers, the Indian former Deutsche Bank executive is considered by some as a pioneer of modern finance............ He was feted in April by Michael Milken, the junk bond king of the 1980s who was convicted of securities fraud and later imprisoned for two years. Talking to Mr Misra at a conference, Mr Milken, now a self-styled philanthropist, said: “There is no one that has the understanding of financial markets and capital markets and the hundreds of different types of instruments that you do.” .......... To others, however,

Mr Misra is a source of chronic instability who has stuffed the senior ranks of the Vision Fund with former Deutsche Bank colleagues and financial complexity.

...... “SoftBank and the Vision Fund are layers of leverage upon leverage,” says one banker who has worked closely with both. This person and others see parallels to what took place at Deutsche Bank, the now struggling lender whose lack of oversight and controls saw its balance sheet laden with risky products of the sort Mr Misra specialised in. ...... SoftBank is saddled with $160bn of interest-bearing debt and its bonds are rated non-investment grade. The Vision Fund has a unique structure — created by Mr Misra — where roughly $40bn of outside investor funds are in the form of preferred shares that work like debt and pay an annual coupon......... When Mr Misra looked to return capital to the Vision Fund’s backers earlier this year, he added yet more leverage, taking out a $3.5bn loan mortgaged against stakes in companes including Uber. ....... Under Mr Misra’s watch, the fund’s ranks have grown to more than 400 employees ...... “I’ll tell you the biggest change in two years. We are learning so much. It’s becoming sixth sense. We transfer that learning to our portfolio companies,” Mr Misra told Mr Milken, highlighting best practices shared across its holdings. ....... The growth inside the Vision Fund belies an environment where Mr Misra and his allies have jostled with those outside their inner circle. Critics say

the toxic culture

, which Mr Son has overlooked, could imperil the future of the fund. ........... Two senior SoftBank executives have had fierce run-ins with Mr Misra that have had an impact on the balance of power in the Vision Fund and the company. One, Alok Sama, SoftBank International’s former chief financial officer who was a critic of the WeWork investment, left in April........ Former Goldman colleagues and others described Mr Schwartz as a “moral compass”, who became fed up with the changing culture within SoftBank and concerns over governance at the Vision Fund, as well as its reliance on money from Riyadh. ........ A second Vision Fund would help Mr Son silence his critics. A rollout this summer of those plans were designed to showcase SoftBank’s ability to attract blue-chip investors such as Microsoft. But no outside investors have formally signed up yet. ........ Nearly half of the $108bn SoftBank hopes to raise is set to come from the Japanese company itself and senior employees. However, some of these employees have balked at what that entails: a “loyalty test” that involves taking SoftBank loans equivalent to as much as 15 times their annual salary. ........... Executives within and close to SoftBank concede that renewed commitments from Saudi Arabia and its neighbour Abu Dhabi are crucial if there is to be a second fund. Both have been slow to commit, even as SoftBank executives are counting on Prince Mohammed to reinvest up to $30bn with them. 




Everybody has a bad year. Every person, every company, every country. Some have two, some have three. Is this just a bad year for Masa Son? I'd argue otherwise. If the idea for the 100B Vision Fund is to give a 2X return or a 3X return in a five-year timeframe, that would still be excellent. A 10X return over a 10-year run is considered excellent in VC circles. It is so good the vast majority of VCs fail trying. They go out of business.

But the expectations on Masa are high. People look at his track record. He is the magician who harvested big from his bets on Yahoo and Alibaba. If he were to pull the same rabbit out of the hat, the 100B fund should become 10T. Will it? I doubt it.

Masa bet big on WeWork and Uber. Those two moves expose his thinking with the 100B Vision Fund. He thought both those companies were out of high-risk territories. They had already found product-market fit, the holy grail of tech entrepreneurship. Now all they had to do was scale. To him, it was like that Russian billionaire pumping 100M into Facebook when Facebook was already hotcakes. It was on its way to up and up and up.

Now we know that is not how it panned out.

Either Masa will go back to his roots of doing early stage (which can't be easy .... that is akin to saying Mark Zuckerberg should go launch another Facebook ... Mark can't .... he is incapable of) or he might have to make do with more modest returns. Right now the 100B Vision Fund delivering a 10X return over a 10-year timeframe looks ambitious. As in, not happening. But even 2X would be nice. 3X would be great. 5X would be congratulatory stuff.

Prince Salman gets to tag along. :)







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