The impending Age Of Abundance was prophecied in the scriptures thousands of years ago.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
18 Months Ago GroupOn Did Not Exist
Image via WikipediaReuters: Grouponomics: 18 months ago, Groupon didn’t exist. Today, it has over 70 million users in 500-odd different markets, is making more than a billion dollars a year, has dozens if not hundreds of copycat rivals, and is said to be worth as much as $25 billion. What’s going on here? There’s obviously something clever and innovative behind Groupon — but what is it? ...... “Groupon doesn’t do anything that four of us with a phone couldn’t do” ...... the more people Groupon signs up, the more targeted its deals can be ...... the idea that coupons only become activated once a certain minimum number of people have signed up for them. This is essentially a guarantee for the merchant that the needle will be moved, that their effort won’t be wasted. With traditional advertising or even with old-fashioned coupons, a merchant never has any guarantee that they will be noticed or make any difference. But with a Groupon, you know that hundreds of people will be so enticed by your offer that they’re willing to pay real money to access it. That kind of guaranteed engagement is hugely valuable, and more or less unprecedented in the world of marketing and advertising. ....... one sector, which I think is Groupon’s biggest: restaurants. ....... Before Groupon came along, there was no effective way for merchants to reach consumers in their area, while excluding everybody else. If you’re a neighborhood restaurant, you don’t want to entice people who live miles away: you want to reach locals. And while Groupon isn’t quite there yet — especially in New York, where a restaurant more than a few blocks away can feel like a schlep — it’s orders of magnitude better at targeting than anything which came before it. And it’s improving every day. ........ one of life’s great mysteries is why the New York Times is spending tens of millions of dollars building and promoting its easily-circumventable paywall, when it could have built a first-rate Groupon clone instead. The NYT has the exact home addresses — and the associated email addresses — of hundreds of thousands of well-heeled newspaper subscribers in a rich city of tiny neighborhoods. It also has a sales force which talks to local businesses regularly. It should own this space in New York City, instead of ceding it to arrivistes from Chicago who have much less specificity as to where exactly their subscribers live ........ when a few hundred people have signed up for your deal, you get a huge amount of mindshare from them. Many will redeem the Groupon very quickly, but a lot of them will wait a while, thinking about you in the back of their minds all the time ....... Groupons provide an important nudge to jolt people out of their day-to-day habits and try something new ....... By forcing people to pay for their Groupon, restaurants lock in new customers in a way that old-fashioned coupons never could. ....... a Groupon is a commitment device ...... very good at driving traffic during slow periods ...... he timed its Groupon “to create a surge of business in an otherwise soft couple of months after the holidays.” ....... 66% of merchants offering a Groupon said that the offer was profitable for them in and of itself — not including any subsequent repeat business from new customers. ....... diners spending their Groupon at a restaurant averaged a check 80% greater than the face value of the Groupon itself. ...... if that Groupon helps you to discover a new neighborhood gem where you go on to become a regular, then that’s a genuine and highly valuable service that it has performed, no matter how much money you spend on your first visit. ....... social media is at heart a fantastic way for companies to compete on quality rather than marketing glitz. ........ the best way to get great word-of-mouth is to deliver fantastic service. For a small company or even a large company which is great at what it does and never does any marketing per se, social media is a godsend. ........ Groupon’s CEO, Andrew Mason, attributes his company’s success not to the genius of the idea itself, but rather to Groupon’s ability to execute — to keep both consumers and merchants happy. ...... more than 95% of merchants would run their deal again or recommend Groupon to a fellow merchant. ...... enormous amounts of effort into ongoing customer service, rather than just putting four sales guys in a room with a telephone and putting them on commission. ...... Groupon itself, as much as its merchants, is counting on repeat business. And that comes from having a positive reputation which can spread like wildfire over Facebook and other social networks.
Gender And The Wilson Household
Cover of John LennonOne thing I appreciate about the Fred Wilson family is that all of them blog. I really, really like that. It is not like they are odd, and I salivate for juicy details - although, as for some of Joanne's food posts. None of that. They are very normal as people. I have not met the kids (and that's fine with me), but I have met Fred and Joanne. I do visit Fred's blog near daily. The guy just recently got called officially the top VC in the world for the kind of return he has shown for the money he has raised. But I have followed him at his blog for two years before that admiring his excellence, and the quality of his mind. He is also just a good person. I have blogged about him a few times. More than a few times. I have reblogged their three children on Tumblr multiple times. I have taken pleasure.
This crew is like the First Family of the NY tech ecosystem. And they are accessible. One day, some day, I am going to ask for Joanne Wilson's autograph.
One thing the Wilson couple talk frankly about is gender and gender roles. And I really, really appreciate that. We might or might not disagree, but I get suspicious of people who simply don't believe in bringing it up as a topic of conversation.
Wednesday, May 04, 2011
Intel's 3D Transistors: Moore's Law Marches On
Image via CrunchBaseThis is a big leap in a core sector of computing hardware. We will reap the benefits for years. This is great news for the mobile web, and for computing in general. Intel Explains
Exuberance, Not Froth
Image via WikipediaI said it was not a bubble, but there was some froth. I am revising that. I am now saying it is not froth, it is exuberance. It is mostly a positive scenario. Fred Wilson: Megatrend Crosscurrents: The history of tech investing is a series of waves or megatrends that come one after another. Mainframes to minicomputers to PCs to client server to Internet, for example. But right now we are in the midst of a number of these megatrends all happening at the same time. There are at least four big ones going on at the same time:Wait, Did They Say Froth?
- Mobile - yesterday I wrote that at least 16% of the visits to this blog are coming from mobile devices and that number is up from essentially zero six quarters ago
- Social - Facebook will have 1bn users in the next year or so
- Cloud - A third of Netflix' new subscribers are opting for the streaming only plan
- Global - companies like Skype, Facebook, Twitter, Google see upwards of 80% of their users from outside the US and these numbers are growing faster than ever ...... Each one of these megatrends would be an investable wave on its own. But we are in an environment when all four are crashing on the shore ata the same time. Twitter, for example, is mobile and social and global.
Bubble, Boom Or Froth?
Is It A Bubble?
Glass Half Full Phase
At first Fred Wilson said maybe a bubble. John Doerr said it's a boom. That word does not quite capture it. I said froth. Fred said froth. Then Fred said glass half full. Now he is saying exuberance. And I agree. It is not bubble, boom, or froth, it is exuberance. Done right this can give America China like growth rates. This is about lifting billions out of poverty, and making the already rich feel like it is not happening at their expense or at the expense of the planet.
Condition 1
Time: A New Way to Photograph War
Condition ONE, an app to provide a new form of storytelling. Dennis says it combines “the power of the still image, the narrative of films and the emotional engagement of tactile experiences to create a new language that is so immersive, it will shake viewers out of their numbness to traditional media and provide them a powerful emotional experience. Instead of opening a window to glimpse another world, we are attempting to bring the viewer into that world as an active participant.” ..... “Once viewers enter a video experience, they can move the tablet in any direction and see the corresponding field of view. The traditional two-dimensional, rectangular frame is shattered as viewers step inside the frame and experience the stories as the protagonists.” ..... “Before, when I was shooting, my camera only showed what was in front of me, the action. It was frustrating because often what happens just at your right is part of the story. Now it is like having five cameras. One more at your right, your left, up and down,” Chauvel writes. “It’s not easy to use; you have to watch not to get your shoes in the frame or your shadow or your face … But the result is worth it. You bring your story with more images all around and more information, so you are a better witness. Now people can feel the story.”(Via Upendra Shardanand)
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Patti Smith's Dancing Barefoot: One Powerful Song
Image via WikipediaI have been listening to this song multiple times today. It is so very powerful. I just googled up the lyrics to the song for the first time. Wow. This is really something. Patti Smith: Dancing Barefoot
This song might be to love songs what The English Patient is to movies in that genre. My favorite part has got to be the mention of gravity. That is one powerful metaphor. The mention of the word barefoot attains the same height as the mention of gravity. The mention of "the mystery of childbirth" takes me to my favorite book: Tagore's Gitanjali.
Apple: Trillion Dollar Company?
Image via WikipediaYahoo Finance: Apple Will Become A Trillion-Dollar Company, Says Altucher — $1,000 a Share: Apple recently blew past Microsoft, Cisco, and other companies to become the most valuable tech company in the world. But that's just the beginning, says investor James Altucher of Formula Capital....... Altucher thinks Apple will eventually be worth more than $1 trillion, maybe even $2-$3 trillion. ...... the company's global market share in its key markets--smart-phones, tablets, and Macs--is still very low. Also, factoring out Apple's massive $65 billion pile of cash, the stock is trading at a low price-earnings multiple.Apple is not going to be a trillion dollar company. That is too much extrapolation. This trillion dollar talk reminds me of the singularity talk, that is yet another case of too much extrapolation.
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