Binary Investments, The Middle Kingdom, And Super Exits

Fred Wilson: The Fallacy Of Bimodal Returns: startup returns are not bimodal. They exhibit more of a power law curve. There will certainly be one or two venture deals every year that generate 100x or more. And there will certainly be quite a few total busts. But there are a lot of outcomes in the middle of those two.

Binary is the term used by Ron Conway, the guy in Silicon Valley who invests like he had perennial diarrhea. I read him using the term in a TechCrunch blog post a few weeks back. Binary works for him. It works because he has a track record over almost two decades, or at least a decade and a half, of not having missed out on any good deal in the Valley. He has been in all the top companies. He has also managed to get into FourSquare. And he keeps spreading the love far and wide. This past year I think he put 60% of his money into New York companies.

Engineering, Creativity, Sector Reform, Sector Revolution

Fred Wilson: The Creative Phase: The digital technology revolution was, from the day the transistor was invented in the late 40s until the early part of last decade, largely about engineering. It is still very much about engineering but I've been thinking for a while now that as this revolution matures, it is becoming more and more about creativity and less about engineering.

Fred calls it creativity and says maybe that is not the right word. He talks about engineers having become less central to tech startup efforts, and then backpedals, wait, I don't mean to say engineers are not important, they are.

A Blogger Is Not A Columnist

Image by UMDNJ School of Nursing via FlickrWhen some companies decide to get into blogging they realize they have finally figured out a way to make it more possible for more people at their own pace, at their own time to read their press releases. If you missed one of ours, dig into the archives, they are all there.

Some celebrity journalists or public figures in general think blogging is about becoming a newspaper columnist, something they always wanted to do, but no big name newspaper saw the light, and hence, people, people, people, here's my blog, get enlightened.

Social Graph, Social Concentric Circles

Vinod Khosla's Green Tech Sweep

TechCrunch: Khosla Completes The VC Triumvirate At Disrupt: In 2004, he created Khosla Ventures to invest his own money and began to dive deep into greentech, while still keeping his hand in infotech. Always known for being a risk junkie and identifying big opportunities early, he started to build one of the deepest portfolios of greentech investments in the Valley. Last year, he finally took outside money, raising $1.1 billion for two new funds, including a seed fund.... His greentech portfolio covers everything from power generation, batteries, and advanced hydrocarbons to water, plastics, and chemicals.

VCs Have To Raise Money Too

Intellectually they know, but at an emotional level a ton of tech entrepreneurs end up feeling VCs were just born with the cash to dispense with, if they will just open up the wallet and dole out the money, don't they realize the world needs to be changed?

Cyber Warlordism

States are going to do what states are going to do. With Russia it was nuclear weapons technology, with China it might be cyber. There will be no casualties, but there will be losses. The elements that have to be factored in are the non state actors, the criminal gangs, and the terrorist groups and even the occasional misguided teenager. What is the extent of havoc those non state actors could create?

Nexus Two, Take One

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeGoogle doing Nexus One early this year - or was it late last year - was a big departure for the software giant. It does not feel that way any more because the company by now is into wind farms and cars and monorails. But back then hardware, any hardware, felt like a big departure.

Google Car, Google Monorail
Offshoring The Wind Harvesting: Google Wind

Other than that the Nexus Two would have the newest version of Android, what would be the rest of the features? Will it just have the best of the best phones now? What additional features could there be?

Phones Not Tied To Carriers

Image via WikipediaLaptops don't come tied to cable internet companies. Why do phones come tied to phone companies? You should be able to buy a phone, and it should be wi-fi enabled, and you should not have to pay anything in addition to what you pay for your internet access, and you should have Skype on your phone, and that is it. Smartphones are app heavy in the first place. All they need is internet access. What they need is wi-fi.

Is Brazil The Microsoft Of Soccer?

Image via WikipediaBrazil is supposed to be one of the eternal powerhouses of soccer. Or so I thought. This year a lot of the old powers were gone by the wayside. Italy was nowhere in the picture. England was out fast. France, did they even qualify? This year saw a new world order in soccer.

Facebook Photo Album: Brasil

Social Is A Pendulum Swing

Image via WikipediaThis tumblog post got me thinking about a theme I have thought about for a while now and have been meaning to blog about.

Social that is all the rage is a pendulum swing. The pendulum will inevitably swing the other way. That does not mean we will all go back to doing Google searches, if we ever stopped doing that. The pendulum swing is going to mean that there is going to be a renewed focus on the individual at some point down the line.

Ageism And Entrepreneurship

I believe you can start a company at any age. I believe you can join a startup team at any age. I don't believe a startup has to do with coding and coding alone. There is always room for startups in every industry, in every sector of the economy.

Does Robert Scoble Know Me?

Image via WikipediaMaybe he does. Likely he does not. I have left a few comments at his blog. I have retweeted a few of his tweets. I have a Direct Message from him on Twitter, and I know enough about him to know that does not make me special. I mean, that guy has thousands of "friends" on FourSquare. He asks to be stalked. I don't think he has self esteem issues. I think he is a social media guinea pig to himself. He wants to go out there and try it out. He once retweeted one of my tweets. He has replied to one or more of my comments at his blog.