Saturday, October 27, 2012

African Hopes

Satellite image of Africa, showing the ecologi...
Satellite image of Africa, showing the ecological break that defines the sub-Saharan area (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The coining BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India, China - did not have A for Africa in it. But Africa is on the march now. That is swell. This is not the Africa of unfair history, or false stereotypes. But Africa still has a lot of political homework to do. There is much cleaning up that remains.

Africa rising
Over the past decade six of the world's ten fastest-growing countries were African. In eight of the past ten years, Africa has grown faster than East Asia, including Japan. Even allowing for the knock-on effect of the northern hemisphere's slowdown, the IMF expects Africa to grow by 6% this year and nearly 6% in 2012, about the same as Asia...... With fertility rates crashing in Asia and Latin America, half of the increase in population over the next 40 years will be in Africa. But the growth also has a lot to do with the manufacturing and service economies that African countries are beginning to develop. ........... Most Africans live on less than two dollars a day. ... Some countries praised for their breakneck economic growth, such as Angola and Equatorial Guinea, are oil-sodden kleptocracies. Some that have begun to get economic development right, such as Rwanda and Ethiopia, have become politically noxious. Congo, now undergoing a shoddy election, still looks barely governable and hideously corrupt. Zimbabwe is a scar on the conscience of the rest of southern Africa. South Africa, which used to be a model for the continent, is tainted with corruption; and within the ruling African National Congress there is talk of nationalising land and mines ..... around 60m Africans have an income of $3,000 a year, and 100m will in 2015. The rate of foreign investment has soared around tenfold in the past decade. ...... China's arrival has improved Africa's infrastructure and boosted its manufacturing sector. Other non-Western countries, from Brazil and Turkey to Malaysia and India, are following its lead. Africa could break into the global market for light manufacturing and services such as call centres. ...... It has more than 600m mobile-phone users—more than America or Europe. ..... Around a tenth of Africa's land mass is covered by mobile-internet services—a higher proportion than in India. ..... productivity is growing by nearly 3% a year, compared with 2.3% in America. ..... Africa still needs deep reform.


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Leap Motion



Source: Leap Motion

An Apollo Program For Global Internet

English: Apollo insignia. Italiano: Stemma del...
English: Apollo insignia. Italiano: Stemma del programma Apollo. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
That is the only true cure for the global economic malaise. The goal has to be globally wireless ad supported gigabit broadband. Nations have to come together in this common effort and build it out.

"It takes about the same amount of computing to answer one Google Search query as all the computing done — in flight and on the ground — for the entire Apollo program."

Why We Can't Solve Big Problems
the greatest peacetime mobilization in the nation's history ..... a lavishly funded, semi-militarized project .... In all, NASA spent $24 billion, or about $180 billion in today's dollars, on Apollo; at its peak in the mid-1960s, the agency enjoyed more than 4 percent of the federal budget. The program employed around 400,000 people and demanded the collaboration of about 20,000 companies, universities, and government agencies. ..... Kennedy's challenge required NASA to solve a bewildering number of smaller problems decades ahead of technology's evolutionary schedule. ...... Men died, including the crew of Apollo 1, who burned in the cabin of their command module. But before the program ended in 1972, 24 men flew to the moon. Twelve walked on its surface .... Why did they go? They brought back little—841 pounds of old rocks, Aldrin's smuggled aesthetic bliss, and something most of the 24 emphasized: a new sense of the smallness and fragility of our home. (Jim Lovell, not untypically, remembered, "Everything that I ever knew—my life, my loved ones, the Navy—everything, the whole world, was behind my thumb.") ..... the strongest emotion at the time of the moon landings was of wonder at the transcendent power of technology. ..... "Treading the soil of the moon, palpating its pebbles, tasting the panic and splendor of the event, feeling in the pit of one's stomach the separation from terra—these form the most romantic sensation an explorer has ever known." ..... To contemporaries, the Apollo program occurred in the context of a long series of technological triumphs. The first half of the century produced the assembly line and the airplane, penicillin and a vaccine for tuberculosis; in the middle years of the century, polio was on its way to being eradicated; and by 1979 smallpox would be eliminated. More, the progress seemed to possess what Alvin Toffler dubbed an "accelerative thrust" ...... By 1961, a rocket-powered X-15 had been piloted to more than 4,000 miles per hour; in 1969, the crew of Apollo 10 flew at 25,000. ...... Since Apollo 17's flight in 1972, no humans have been back to the moon, or gone anywhere beyond low Earth orbit. No one has traveled faster than the crew of Apollo 10. (Since the last flight of the supersonic Concorde in 2003, civilian travel has become slower.) ...... people say there is a paucity of real innovations. Instead, they worry, technologists have diverted us and enriched themselves with trivial toys. ...... "We wanted flying cars—instead we got 140 characters." ...... the "PayPal Mafia," currently the dominant faction in Silicon Valley ....... Thiel is caustic: last year he told the New Yorker that he didn't consider the iPhone a technological breakthrough. "Compare [it] with the Apollo program," he said.The Internet is "a net plus—but not a big one." Twitter gives 500 people "job security for the next decade," but "what value does it create for the entire economy?" ........ VC has ceased to be the funder of the future, and instead become a funder of features, widgets, irrelevances. ....... half of all funds have provided flat or negative returns for the last decade ....... In 2010, less than 2 percent of the world's energy consumption was derived from advanced renewable sources such as wind, solar, and biofuels. (The most common renewable sources of energy are still hydroelectric power and the burning of biomass, which means wood and cow dung.) The reason is economic: coal and natural gas are cheaper than solar and wind, and petroleum is cheaper than biofuels. ...... one political party in the United States is reflexively opposed to industrial regulations and affects to doubt that human beings are causing climate change, and because the emerging markets of China and India will not reduce their emissions without offset benefits that the industrialized nations cannot provide ........ Amartya Sen, a Nobel laureate economist, has shown that famines are political crises that catastrophically affect food distribution. (Sen was influenced by his own experiences. As a child he witnessed the Bengali famine of 1943: three million displaced farmers and poor urban dwellers died unnecessarily when wartime hoarding, price gouging, and the colonial government's price–controlled acquisitions for the British army made food too expensive. Sen demonstrated that food production was actually higher in the famine years.) ........ The most efficient solutions to the problem of malaria turn out to be simple: eliminating standing water, draining swamps, providing mosquito nets, and, most of all, increasing prosperity. ..... the vanity of trying to impose a technological solution on what is a problem of poverty. ....... President Richard Nixon declared war on cancer in 1971; but we soon discovered there were many kinds of cancer, most of them fiendishly resistant to treatment ...... by 2050, palliative care in the United States alone will cost $1 trillion a year. Yet we understand almost nothing about dementia and have no effective treatments. Hard problems are hard. ...... going to the moon was easy. It was only three days away. Arguably, it wasn't even solving much of a problem. ..... We don't lack for challenges. A billion people want electricity, millions are without clean water, the climate is changing, manufacturing is inefficient, traffic snarls cities, education is a luxury, and dementia or cancer will strike almost all of us if we live long enough.


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The Single Platform Talk


I am enamored by the vision. I like the idea. You are the same person with your phone, your tablet or in front of your laptop. Why should the device feel different?

But there is an undercurrent here. Bill Gates would like to dominate the mobile space like the dominated the PC space. That is what he really means when he talks of one platform. In case you did not notice, Bill Gates never left Microsoft. He is still Chairman. China had Chairman Mao. Microsoft has Chairman Gates.

By the way, I am a huge fan of his foundation. There might not be another person on the planet as focused on poverty - laser focused - as the Chairman. The other Chairman also cared a lot about the poor. That one was practically a communist. Bill is the ultimate capitalist. I like that convergence. A lot.

The future of Windows is a single platform according to Bill Gates
Windows is really headed toward a "single" platform. That means that at some point in the very near future, your Desktop, your Phone and your Tablet will all share the same operating system.
What does Bill Gates think about the new Windows lineup?


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GUI To Touch To Gesture

Steve Jobs took the lead on touch and Microsoft is playing catch up. Steve Jobs stole the Graphical User Interface - a big jump from what existed before - from Xerox, and Bill Gates stole it from Jobs. But it was Gates that won the PC wars.

But there is something beyond touch. That is gesture. And there Microsoft seems to be ahead. Gesture promises to be even more intuitive than touch. It is exciting what they might do.

Point and click feels one dimensional. Touch feels two dimensional. Gesture feels three dimensional. It is a paradigm shift.

Microsoft's Plan to Bring About the Era of Gesture Control
The company wants to make it as common to wave your arms at or speak to a computer as it is to reach for a mouse or touch screen today. ..... "We're trying to encourage [software] developers to create a whole new class of app controlled by gesture and voice," says Peter Zatloukal, head of engineering for the Kinect for Windows program. ...... "We initially used keyboards, then the mouse and GUIs were a big innovation, now touch is a big part of people's lives," he says. "The progression will now be to voice and gesture." ... A conventional keyboard, mouse, or touch screen can be difficult to use in classrooms and hospital wards, or on factory floors. ..... Microsoft needs software developers to create killer applications. Along with the hardware, the company provides a software developer's kit, or SDK, that offers a range of ready-made tools, including voice recognition and body-part tracking .... by using infrared, your apps can see in the dark now ..... Nissan has introduced a gesture-controlled system for dealerships that lets prospective buyers look inside a virtual version of a new car. ...... It even trumps voice recognition, he says. "Voice recognition is 95 to 98 percent accurate, so one time in 50 it won't work," he says. "This works like a tool—it will work for you every time." ...... "When using a computer today, we think of our bodies as a fingertip or at most two fingertips," he says. But humans evolved to communicate with their whole bodies. .... detecting fidgeting or defensive body language such as folded arms. The hope is to address the social cues that are lost when video calls replace face-to-face communication
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Windows 8


Many have predicted the demise of Windows, and you look bold when doing so, but here is Microsoft claiming to have married the tablet touch into the laptop Windows.

Microsoft has a small but legitimate presence in the mobile space by now. And so I am not about to call the end of Windows. As for the sexy, that right now rests with Apple and Google.

The new Windows tries to give you the tablet feel.

Windows 8: Does Microsoft’s Split-Personality OS Make Sense?
Microsoft is trying to leverage its Windows customer base to drive demand for the phones and tablets that are the company’s future. .... consumers today would prefer to buy a tablet rather than a desktop or laptop ...... Windows 8 has two separate ways of working. There’s a familiar Desktop mode, which resembles the multi-window, taskbar-at-the-bottom world most users have becomes used to. But it also has a completely new interface somewhat awkwardly called “Modern-style UI” (previously “Metro”). ..... a full-screen grid of large, colorful tiles whose contents change dynamically to show, for example, new Facebook photo posts. On a touch-screen tablet, it seems natural. ..... the company’s particular vision of mobile computing. ....... Don Norman .. a former Apple vice president .. “The requirements of small-screen mobile devices are incompatible with those of large-screen fixed devices,” Norman says. “Windows 8 has a problem. The real business workhorses of Microsoft Office are not well supported by the mobile apps. So Microsoft had to provide a backwards-compatibility mode, which provides the necessary power, but makes things even more confusing.” ..... wants Windows-powered tablets to seem more familiar than an iPad to potential buyers. ..... they’re using the “tablet” interface instead of Desktop even on desktop computers.
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