Mark Suster: The Social Network: Facebook To Fragmentation

Image via WikipediaMark Suster's three pieces on TechCrunch are a nice summary of what has happened, and what is happening, although if any of this is news to you, I have to ask, where have you been?

When he starts talking about the future, it gets trickier. Social has so much buzz right now that it is hard to imagine the post-social buzz. But that there will be is for sure. There always has been. Social itself will morph. Social is one thing. Social and mobile as a combo is a case of two plus two being five. To that cocktail add local and global and you end up with two plus two equals 22. And it is not easy to figure out.

One good news is I see many, many players emerging.

Google's Failure To Purchase GroupOn Shows Google Is No Monopoly

Image via WikipediaFacebook is the most serious competition Google ever faced, and Facebook is not your classic search engine, it is not a ten blue links company. Although it is blue!

Look at how Facebook has gone after Google by not going after Google like one bull after another. The web as a whole is too fluid a place, too open to innovation for any company to manage to pull a monopoly on there.

$160 Smartphone From India: No Contract, No Subsidy

http://www.myfirstandroid.com
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Fred Wilson On Android And HTML5

Image by Lachlan Hardy via FlickrIf how often I visit a particular blog is the way to measure, Fred Wilson very much continues to be my favorite solo blogger. He does have a home base advantage in that both of us are New Yorkers, but his standing in the blogosphere is obvious. Yesterday his blog post was the top featured story at TechMeme when I visited it, which was in the evening.

Wait, Did They Say Froth?

Image via WikipediaI wrote and published this last post - Bubble Talk Goes On: It's An Overshoot - before I read the Fred Wilson post or the New York Times story. I wrote my blog post after skimming the two headlines. I winged it, as you might put it.

Bubble Talk Goes On: It's An Overshoot

Image via WikipediaFred Wilson: Invest In The Mess
New York Times: A Silicon Bubble Shows Signs Of Reinflating
The Day I Got Called Sean Parker
Did Not Meet Fred Wilson, But Met Mazy Dar
Angel Bubbles: No Bubbles
Bubble, Boom Or Froth?

Fred has said repeatedly that what we are seeing is a bubble. First thing I say is this is not a yes no question. Is this a bubble? If you force ask me, my answer is no. This is not a bubble. This is hyperactivity. Will many angel investors lose money? Sure. But that does not make it a bubble. Even a top notch VC like Fred Wilson expects one third of his portfolio to go down under. And these are companies that he did not invest in on day one knowing they will go down. You think you picked a winner, you give them sufficient money and guidance, you go to bat for them, and they still go down. If Fred Wilson is at peace with a 33% failure rate, there are VCs whose failure rates are 66% and 90%. Most VCs fail. Most entrepreneurs fail. By some estimates as many as 90% of new businesses fail within a year of getting launched. Looks like 10% is all capitalism needs to survive.

Larry Eyeing HP Now

Image via CrunchBase
Image by plαdys via Flickr

Wall Street Journal: Ellison Says Oracle Will 'Go After' H-P: Mr. Ellison said the new hardware—a "supercluster" of Sparc-based servers—set a record for online transaction processing, a measure of performance for running database software, "for any database running on any computer at any time." ..... "We think the H-P machines are vulnerable. We think they're slow," Mr. Ellison said. "We're going to go after them in the marketplace with better software, better hardware and better people, and we're going to win market share." ..... "I like IBM, and I don't want to tease them very much." ....... Oracle and H-P were once close partners. In 2008, Oracle announced an exclusive partnership with H-P to offer a system bundled with Oracle database software—dubbed Exadata—only to drop that arrangement and substitute Sun hardware as a result of the acquisition.

Larry Ellison thinks in terms of enemies. And in Apothepo he has found one. Getting rid of Apothepo is not going to get Larry to take his eyes off of HP, but that might help a little, just a little. But HP is going to exhibit self destructive behavior by sticking to Apothepo for as long as possible.

Angry Birds, Angry, Angry Birds

I first noticed this game - a few times - in subway cars being played by people sitting next to me. They were gripped. I was gripped just watching. It'a good game if you have time to kill. It is simple, it is fun, it is eye catching. The name is a nice one. Angry birds. This dog will hunt.

GroupOn Did The Right Thing

Image via CrunchBase
Image via WikipediaSources: Groupon rejects Google's offer; will stay independent
Groupon Annual Revenues Actually $2 Billion

Secretly I was hoping this would not come to be. Google and GroupOn were not a good match. A great high tech company is not automatically a great high touch company. GroupOn does a lot of stuff offline. In that way GroupOn is not like YouTube at all. YouTube is all tech, all online.

This was not going to be a good buy for Google. And this would have severely limited GroupOn. GroupOn is just now getting started. This company could do really well independently.
Image via CrunchBase
Amazon buying Zappos was similarly a bad idea. Zappos was IPO material. The white venture capitalists who forced Tony into Jeff Bezos' arms acted racist.

The Day I Got Called Sean Parker

So I am at this NY Tech MeetUp after party last month, feeling fresh - I had skipped the presentations, and gone straight to the after party; presentations are work! - working the room, outenergying most, saying hello, and next. And I shake this guy's hand after approaching him, and he says he has seen me at Fred Wilson's blog.

"It is so great to meet you in person finally," he says.

Thank You Jesus