Never mind that this might materialize towards the end of the decade and not any time soon, but I had an idea. Cars that drive themselves are not good enough. They should be able to talk to each other. You should be able to set your journey and have your car talk to other cars to form trains along the highway. So if you are programming your car to take you on a 10 hour ride on the freeway, other cars also going the same length and your car should be able to form a train in the middle lane, perhaps 10 cars per train. And of course this would be an intelligent train. It would be seeing the non train cars and keeping watch on them. The train will do what it takes to avoid accidents, up to and including breaking up. And if only all those cars are 100% electric, we will have solved a major, major problem. 100% electric cars by the end of the decade is not that ambitious.
Software just got wheels. Or perhaps it is the other way round.
You know what would be even better? 100% electric bullet trains that move at perhaps 500 miles per hour. Or even 300. Trains are way more efficient than cars. If you could have such train service that connect all major cities, and have metro trains inside all cities, that still leaves room for 100% electric taxi cabs. And rental cars. And even cars. But I think the heavy lifting should be for trains.
How about people work to design smart trains? What would be your idea of a smart train?
While eBay saw its marketplace growth stagnate at just over $1 billion a quarter, I see several areas Etsy must optimize just to pass $100 million in business
No other startup has gone more quickly from launch to $1 billion+ in valuation except YouTube (12 months), which Groupon achieved in 16 months .... Groupon is achieving considerable revenue growth across all measures: more customers, higher deal prices, and rapidly expanding markets. ..... makes its model highly attractive (hence, every week seems to bring new copycats). .... Groupon gets more of its traffic from Facebook than any other site, including Google ...... the company does not hold any physical inventory and its customer acquisition costs are so low. ..... Groupon has raised a total of $171 million to-date, employs more than 200 people, and serves 52 markets. Its next biggest competitor, LivingSocial, has raised $49 million, employs about 50 people, and serves 14 markets. .... Groupon is far ahead. The data suggests that Groupon is not yet feeling the impact of all the new entrants. ..... There is no reason to believe that this concept couldn’t be extended to virtually any category or service provider.
Like YouTube, Twitter, and Groupon, social gaming pioneer, Zynga is a member of the “fastest from founding to $1B valuation” club, having earned its membership in just 19 months. .... over half of Facebook users are playing Zynga’s games .... Farmville alone now attracts over 100 million unique users per month, just 10 months after it launched. ..... PayPal said last week that Zynga is now its 2nd largest customer by volume ..... “Zynga Nation” ...... the beneficiary of a once-in-a-decade tectonic shift in the Internet landscape. ..... Zynga accounts for 31% of all active applications on Facebook, more than 2 times Facebook’s own apps ..... The company also continues to sit on a warchest of its largely unspent $219 million in venture capital that it was able to raise because of its rapid success. ..... Zynga’s incredible hockey stick growth of the past 2 years appears to have come to an end .... Games are the No. 1 application in the Apple App Store. Collectively mobile games are a $3B+ a year business
These three companies, especially Zynga and GroupOn, have grown very, very rapidly. Their rise has been dizzying. I have a feeling we will see more and more rapid rise companies. So when I ask, which is the next Zynga, I am not necessarily talking of the social gaming space. Actually, I am not. I am asking, what could be that next space that will create that next rapid rise company?
A lot of the action is moving to the mobile web space.
His events mailing list is the best thing Charlie O'Donnell ever did, I think. This video below is from when Charlie was young. Word is he was pretty awesome back in the days.
So today I open up my email from being on Charlie's list, and one event pops out more than any other.
Wednesday, October 13th
6:30PM Girls in Tech NYC presents a Live Interview with David Kirkpatrick, Author of The Facebook Effect
Like with all of the best events on Charlie's list, this one was full too. So I wrote to the organizer. Felicia Moeis wrote back. I got to sign up. I get to show up.
This was my pitch to her.
Would really like to come to your event Wednesday. Promise to blog about it. http://technbiz.blogspot.com/ You will get exposure.
Girls In Tech: Is it really the end of men?: Everyday I sit in my office with “the boys,” a group of incredibly talented, hardworking male engineers .... I was shocked when one of them turned to me and said, “apparently I am outdated, inefficient and soon to be obsolete.” .... while men do in fact make up most of the presidents, prime ministers, CEOs of major corporations, and so forth, men also make up most of the prisoners, homeless people and casualties of war as well..... today’s human population is descended from twice as many women as men, which means it’s likely that throughout the history of the world 80% of women but only 40% of men reproduced ..... Those that were successful in differentiating themselves were aggressive risk takers ..... society associates women with being lovable; more empathetic, better consensus-seekers and lateral thinkers,bringing a superior moral sensibility to the cutthroat business world. Men are called risk takers, competitive, aggressive, shallow. ...... Given the choice between someone who tells me what to do and someone who asks my opinion, I would choose the latter. ..... modern, post-industrial society no longer favors the risk takers. ..... For both mental retardation and genius, as you go from mild to medium to extreme, the number of males versus females grows larger. ..... Want to think men are better than women? Then look at the top, the heroes, the inventors, the philanthropists, and so on. Want to think women are better than men? Then look at the bottom, the criminals, the junkies, the losers. ...... only 3 percent of Fortune 500CEOs are women, but women also only make up 7% of the people who are killed on the job ...... women now hold 51.4 percent of managerial and professional jobs—up from 26.1 percent in 1980. .... I still want to see more women in technology, as Fortune 500 CEOs and holding political office.
Women have so far to go globally to achieve equality, let alone dominance, that this talk is amusing to me. I hope the thesis is right. Female leadership is not a bad idea. It will be good for men too.
Equality is a political concept, it is not biology, not genetics. A post-industrial, knowledge based society will be equal. I hope so. Women have always had brains. Now they have the opportunity to use it. That's all.
This small news of small, slow progress could end up being fodder to defensive men. Got to watch out.
The Atlantic: Hannah Rosin: The End of Men: Earlier this year, women became the majority of the workforce for the first time in U.S. history. Most managers are now women too. And for every two men who get a college degree this year, three women will do the same. For years, women’s progress has been cast as a struggle for equality. But what if equality isn’t the end point? What if modern, postindustrial society is simply better suited to women? ..... Men in ancient Greece tied off their left testicle in an effort to produce male heirs ...... “Did male dominance exist? Of course it existed. But it seems to be gone now. And the era of the firstborn son is totally gone.” ..... for the first time in human history, that is changing—and with shocking speed...... As thinking and communicating have come to eclipse physical strength and stamina as the keys to economic success ..... Postgenocide Rwanda elected to heal itself by becoming the first country with a majority of women in parliament. ..... what if the economics of the new era are better suited to women? ..... the wreckage of the Great Recession, in which three-quarters of the 8 million jobs lost were lost by men. The worst-hit industries were overwhelmingly male and deeply identified with macho: construction, manufacturing, high finance ..... . Of the 15 job categories projected to grow the most in the next decade in the U.S., all but two are occupied primarily by women ..... social intelligence, open communication, the ability to sit still and focus ..... Last year, Iceland elected Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir, the world’s first openly lesbian head of state, who campaigned explicitly against the male elite she claimed had destroyed the nation’s banking system, and who vowed to end the “age of testosterone.” ...... in the long view, the modern economy is becoming a place where women hold the cards. ..... at the bachelors’ ball, the men, self-conscious about their diminished status, stand stiffly, their hands by their sides, as the women twirl away. ...... What are the four kinds of paternal authority? Moral, emotional, social, and physical. “But you ain’t none of those in that house. All you are is a paycheck, and now you ain’t even that. And if you try to exercise your authority, she’ll call 911. How does that make you feel? You’re supposed to be the authority, and she says, ‘Get out of the house, bitch.’ She’s calling you ‘bitch’!” ...... He writes on the board: $85,000. “This is her salary.” Then: $12,000. “This is your salary. Who’s the damn man? Who’s the man now?” A murmur rises. “That’s right. She’s the man.” ...... men seem “fixed in cultural aspic.” ..... About a third of America’s physicians are now women, as are 45 percent of associates in law firms—and both those percentages are rising fast. A white-collar economy values raw intellectual horsepower, which men and women have in equal amounts. ..... Prominent female CEOs, past and present, are so rare that they count as minor celebrities ..... the term mommy track is slowly morphing into the gender-neutral flex time ....... In lab studies that simulate negotiations, men and women are just about equally assertive and competitive ..... the relationship between testosterone and excessive risk, and wondering if groups of men, in some basic hormonal way, spur each other to make reckless decisions. ...... men and markets on the side of the irrational and overemotional, and women on the side of the cool and levelheaded. ....... sensitive leadership and social intelligence, including better reading of facial expressions and body language ....... Firms that had women in top positions performed better, and this was especially true if the firm pursued what the researchers called an “innovation intensive strategy,” in which, they argued, “creativity and collaboration may be especially important”—an apt description of the future economy. ....... Firms that had women in top positions performed better, and this was especially true if the firm pursued what the researchers called an “innovation intensive strategy,” in which, they argued, “creativity and collaboration may be especially important”—an apt description of the future economy ..... America’s colleges and professional schools, where a quiet revolution is under way ..... men are now more likely than women to hold only a high-school diploma ..... they are just failing to adapt.” ....... the “open secret” that private schools “are discriminating in admissions in order to maintain what they regard as an appropriate gender balance.” ...... “Maybe these boys are genetically like canaries in a coal mine, absorbing so many toxins and bad things in the environment that their DNA is shifting. Maybe they’re like those frogs—they’re more vulnerable or something, so they’ve gotten deformed.” ...... schools, like the economy, now value the self-control, focus, and verbal aptitude that seem to come more easily to young girls. ...... s how much power women have” when they’re not bound by marriage. .... “The family changes over the past four decades have been bad for men and bad for kids, but it’s not clear they are bad for women” ...... marriage has disappeared because women are setting the terms—and setting them too high for the men around them to reach ...... Japan is in a national panic over the rise of the “herbivores,” the cohort of young men who are rejecting the hard-drinking salaryman life of their fathers and are instead gardening, organizing dessert parties, acting cartoonishly feminine, and declining to have sex. The generational young-women counterparts are known in Japan as the “carnivores,” or sometimes the “hunters.” ...... This often-unemployed, romantically challenged loser can show up as a perpetual adolescent ..... Rates of violence committed by middle-aged women have skyrocketed since the 1980s
New Scientist: Stuxnet: the online front line: Stuxnet, the computer worm running rampant in Iran's nuclear facilities ..... a few lines of malicious computer code can trip electricity grids, burn out power-station generators, pollute water supplies and sabotage gas pipelines. ....... Where regular worms merely infect computer systems, stuxnet can reach out into the physical world. It uses vulnerabilities in Microsoft Windows to give an attacker remote control of the specialised factory-floor computers used to control industrial processes. ..... The worm can allow attackers to run motors so fast they burn out, to turn off alarms and safety cut-offs, open effluent valves and activate pumps - in other words, carry out industrial sabotage and skulduggery on a massive scale.
Unless we have some high tech mullahs in Iran, my guess is they are one confounded crowd. As to the origins of stuxnet, your guess is as good as mine. It is possible this has been the work of the Pentagon, like the Iranian regime has been claiming, possibly even the work of Israel, but I doubt that. Biblical references in malicious code do not prove the worm is Israel's work. It is very possible some teenager cowboys, either in Israel or America, and as much likely elsewhere, took it upto themselves to tickle the Iranian regime a little.
Whoever might be behind this, and we might not even know, very likely, this stunt has rattled the mullahs like threats of economic sanctions have not so far.
When they start arresting "spies" is when you know they got it all wrong. That is a symptom of being confounded. Obviously you do not have to be inside of Iran to pull this stunt. That is the whole point of cyber attacks.
This totally chimes in with my thought expressed at this blog a few times that most tweets in the future will not emanate from human fingers. Looks like some of them will emanate from the heart.
This video above is not of the Google car. This is Scoble being Scoble.
Robert Scoble: State of the art of self-driving cars on road today (Google, Ford, and Toyota): Turns out I actually caught one of these cars driving on Freeway 280 in January, reports Techcrunch and, back in 2007, I interviewed one of the guys, Mike Montemerlo, who now works on the Google Car ...... Google’s car goes a lot further because it has digital images and 3D maps of the road ahead and even more sensors and algorithms that let it even drive through intersections..... already they have helped me avoid accidents ...... I use my car’s computer more than my TV or nearly any other computer in my life. ....... my sons will be driving fully automated cars ...... The computers inside are safer than most adults.
The Official Google Blog: Sebastian Thrun: What we’re driving at: who also built a modified Prius that delivered pizza without a person inside ..... more than 1.2 million lives are lost every year in road traffic accidents. ..... self-driving cars will transform car sharing, significantly reducing car usage, as well as help create the new “highway trains of tomorrow." .... people spend on average 52 minutes each working day commuting ..... a glimpse of what transportation might look like in the future thanks to advanced computer science
Robert Scoble: State of the art of self-driving cars on road today (Google, Ford, and Toyota)
If Google was going to put out a TV, it was going to be software heavy, that was a foregone conclusion. If Google was going to put out a car, that was going to be software heavy. That was a foregone conclusion. Driving a car is not the best use of the human mind. This country lost it when it came to trains a long time ago. But now with software there might be a window to turn cars into trains. Too bad this whole thing seems to be a decade away. I already don't drive. I live in New York City. I wish the goodness upon the rest of the country. Not having to drive is a good feeling.
One small step for a company, one big step for public transportation.
It is said we live in an era when people will have not a few different jobs over a lifetime but a few different careers. The one job for life thing went out the window a long time ago. It has been so very true for me.
The immigration humiliation of the past two plus years has been a major blow to self esteem. You show up for enough tech events in town and you leave the impression you are one of those people whose startup never took off. The truth is I am about a year from my green card, and the startup thing will have to wait until then.
What to do has been no minor struggle.
A lot of people who know me think of me as a politician, and I have done some political work, sure, some pretty cutting edge stuff, I would like to believe. But I am who I am. I am a Third World guy. I don't think I have ever seriously contemplated running for office locally. I can get excited about microfinance, but affordable housing? I am not so sure. I am glad plenty get excited about that, and the people are well served, but I am not in that rat race personally.
It is not just a demand issue. It is not just about what the world wants. It is also a supply issue. In politics what excites me is the executive. The US presidency I find fascinating. But I could not say the same about the legislative branch. And that tells me I am cut for tech entrepreneurship. That fits into my personality type. I need much action.
Minus the web I am a fragmented person. I was born in India, grew up in Nepal, now live in America. America is not one country to me. There is the rest of America. And there is New York City. I try to think of New York City as a country on its own. I make a point not to step outside the city boundaries. And I am someone who has been to all parts of America. No one who ran for president of this country has seen as much of America as I have.
Larry Ellison takes his sailing pretty seriously. I take my politics pretty seriously. But I don't see myself in politics. I don't even see me doing the Bloomberg thing. I am perhaps too global. It is a mindset, it is a world view. In my case, it is just who I am.
I set out to raise 100K for my startup in 2008, and I did. I put the bank account in my business partner's name. ("Are you sure you want to trust me with all this money!") The Democratic primary over, I was going to focus on the startup like a laser beam. The McCain thing was not going to be much of a contest. I did not think so.
Back then it was about getting into the ISP space that I had started to call Web 3.0. How do you bring another five billion people online? By now I am much more interested in the mobile web. Looks like the mobile web has already engulfed much of humanity. Well, it is Mini Me for much of the world, but it is a start. Being able to do mobile phone banking is nothing less than revolutionary.
I have yet to buy my first smartphone. I have been pretty much broke during these two plus years of immigration humiliation. But I also look down upon that screen size. The goal has to be big screen wireless broadband for everybody. Third World people are not Mini Me people. And I spend so much time online everyday already that when I am offline I like being offline, untethered. You have to smell the roses, or in the case of New York City, the foul smell of the subway. I think that is also important.
When I do my startup in a year, right now it looks like it is going to be something in the mobile web space. I have a few ideas. I am going to learn some coding in the mean time, enough to lead teams.
In the mean time I will do pro blogging, social media consulting, I have coders who will work for you, I give them their pay and take my cut: let me know if you need some cheap, remote coding done. I am open to getting a job. I am about to put my profile up on a modeling site. I believe I could handle that on the side. I did get a call. I need to call back. I am open to more.
I could use some help with the pro blogging. Every startup worth its salt has a social media presence. This is like outsourcing some of the blogging. You let me do a post or two or three. On your part that would require you giving me an hour or two of your time, in person or on the phone, in person preferred, when you tell me your full story, your full story, and your startup's full story. And by full, I mean full. And you let me talk to the key people on your team. And you email me all the pictures you want to go with the posts. And I would spend hours on the posts. And after the posts come out, you should want to link to them from your site. If you get the full story out, that helps with your hard core users, they feel more included, and become more loyal, and it helps with the press. If they can do all the background research on you with little effort, they are more likely to do stories on you. And more stories the better. Every article written about you is so much free advertising. And it helps with your future investors. I don't have space issues like the mainstream media. I can give as much space to you as needed.
The attraction of the mobile web is that you are working with a pool of five billion people. There has to be an app for that. It is about becoming whole as a person. To me it is. I have a mobile web app in mind that grows to also end up with a big screen web presence. But one year is a long time in tech entrepreneurship. Maybe I will go back to my original idea. Maybe I will set up shop in Queens. But software speaks more to my butterfly effect instincts.
New York Times: Google Cars Drive Themselves, in Traffic: they can transform society as profoundly as the Internet has ..... Robot drivers react faster than humans, have 360-degree perception and do not get distracted, sleepy or intoxicated ..... more than 37,000 people died in car accidents in the United States in 2008 ...... the technology could double the capacity of roads by allowing cars to drive more safely while closer together ..... the company’s ambitions reach beyond the search engine business ....... The project is the brainchild of Sebastian Thrun, the 43-year-old director of the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, a Google engineer and the co-inventor of the Street View mapping service. ...... deployment of the technology more than eight years away. .... Under current law, a human must be in control of a car at all times
This is an entrepreneur having turned a company into one big incubator. If you think about it, Google is one big incubator. The founders did the work on the search engine - and it was pretty fundamental - but then they, as a company, have been smart about laying out the vision, and going out there and finding the top people in their respective fields, hiring them, and giving them the resources to go do their thing.
Pretty much all breakthroughs from Google this past decade have followed that path. Looks like you don't have to sell or leave the company you started, or retire, to be able to do the incubation, venture capital thing. This is the corporation as an organism.
What's next? I wish Google were in a position to do something fundamental in clean tech, but it is not. Energy is not a software problem.
And now we learn the Einsteins at the patent office have granted not one but two location patents. In this land of plenty. I would not be surprised if Gowalla has the third one. If not why has FourSquare bothered competing with that little nuisance in the first place? Why not simply go ahead and sue like every big company seems to be doing to every other big company back there in Silicon Valley? With the exception of Larry Ellison. Larry is into fist fights. (Putting My Money On Larry Ellison)
Image via WikipediaRobert Scoble's Not Google Car
