Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Another Trillion To Buy Real Estate?

World Trade Organization accession and membershipImage via WikipediaI have not followed the Fed's corner of the house as closely as the president's corner, but I get the impression the Fed put a trillion into real estate already and is about to put another trillion into it. This sounds like madness.

The wise guys on Wall Street cooked up nefarious schemes that inflated real estate prices, created a bubble, brought the economy down, and now the Fed is supposed to keep those artificially inflated prices propped up?

Why? Because a broken political system will not allow the president to instead pump a trillion into the 2010 version of the New Deal, but it will allow the unelected Fed chair to play around with a trillion dollars?

Many have speculated this is the Roman empire collapsing. Those who the gods seek to destroy, they first make them mad.

I am for a second stimulus bill of perhaps a trillion poured into drastic job creation.

And all the work of creating the global institutions for the next phase of globalization is yet to be done. There can be no real recovery without that.

Those who say this is like the Great Depression are right. Where they get it wrong is when they don't face the fact that now the entire world is a stage. It is one world. The reason people acted surprised when the bottom fell out was because they had their US goggles on. Put on world goggles. Then you can see.

Can a democracy make its people lose weight? That is the challenge. Instead the democracy continues to gorge on French fries and tea parties. Some hard choices are going to have to be made.

BusinessWeek

Germany At 20: Special Report
Germany's Growth: New Rules, Old Companies: As most developed nations stumble in the race against emerging nations, here's how Germany has succeeded in keeping skilled labor working in good jobs....($3.23 trillion) gross domestic product .... , labor market measures begun in 2003 under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder made it easier to hire and fire workers, and Germany's Mittelstand have proved nimble competitors ...... German labor unions gave up wage increases in return for job security. ..... The Mittelstand companies, which typically employ fewer than 500 workers, comprise more than 70 percent of German workers and contribute roughly half of the country's GDP. The Mittelstand also embodies the German approach to business practice—paternalistic, consensual, conservative, and arguably more effective over the long haul than what Germans sometimes dismiss as American-style cowboy capitalism...... Mittelstand companies have emerged as successful models in an era of globalization—agile creatures darting between the legs of the multinational monsters..... Rather than firing workers, companies reduced hours, saving almost half a million jobs. ..... a system of worktime accounts that enabled employees to work fewer hours without a reduction in pay, in exchange for promising to work more hours without a salary increase when business picks up..... By May of this year, unemployment in Germany was at 7 percent, a 17-year low..... they prefer bank loans to selling bonds or issuing stock ..... it was wage restraint over the last 10 years that's responsible for Germany's success

Goldman Sachs Says U.S. Economy May Be ‘Fairly Bad’: “A fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1 1/2 percent to 2 percent rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to an outright recession.” ...... The Fed bought $1.7 trillion worth of Treasury and mortgage debt in a program that ended in March. The purchases helped push mortgage rates to historic lows. ... Bernanke said Oct. 4 that restarting large- scale asset purchases would probably spur growth




China Hardens Opposition Over Yuan Gains, Tells EU to Back Off: “Europe shouldn’t join the choir” ..... If we increase the yuan by 20-40 percent as some people are calling for, many of our factories will shut down and society will be in turmoil.” ..... Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega warned of a global “currency war.”

Book Excerpt: The Mesh

India Can Help Obama Reach Export Goal: The last time U.S. exports doubled in five years was 1981-1986, when Ronald Reagan was President—and Japan, not China, was the economy Americans feared most. ..... China, India, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico. ..... the Indian economy is the world's fourth-wealthiest—based on purchasing power parity—after the U.S., Japan, and China. ....... the country will keep growing at close to 10 percent in the next decade ..... "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the U.S.?" Some 76 percent of Indian citizens responded affirmatively. ..... Americans are better-liked in India than almost anywhere else in the world ........ Today the U.S. is the world's breadbasket. In India you will find Washington State apples as well as California almonds and pistachios ..... India now hopes for a trillion-dollar upgrade of roads, bridges, power plants, harbors and more. .... Carter was the last President to travel to India within two years of taking office

Volcker Says Nations May Face Prolonged Unemployment: the U.S. and other developed nations face the prospect of protracted joblessness. ..... “This has not been an ordinary recession,” Volcker, 83, said today in a speech in Toronto. It’s “very difficult to find a sector in the American economy that has any spark to it” ..... the Chinese are stuck with dollars and we’re stuck with indebtedness.”

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Google Chrome OS Netbook Assault Imminent

Google Chrome IconImage via WikipediaApple had its iPhone moment. Google had its Android moment. Apple had its iPad moment. There will be a ton of Android tablets, but Google's equivalent of the iPad moment, I believe, we are about to see: the arrival of the Chrome OS netbooks. The netbooks will aim at the tablet - where's the keyboard? - and they will take aim at Windows: why is the machine taking so long to startup?
PCR: Google preps Chrome OS netbook assault: a number of Chrome OS devices to arrive from Samsung, Acer, Asus, Toshiba and HP..... people looked to the web for most of their entertainment, communication and productivity tasks..... the lightweight, low power and low cost netbook ...... a spring clean in order to improve OS start times....."Android is very focused on the best mobile experience there is, Chrome is very focused on the best web experience there is." ..... the minimalist school of design ..... Chrome OS powered netbooks will be available for under $400. ..... 10-inch
There is talk this last decade belonged to Google and Apple, this next belongs to Facebook. I think this next belongs to Facebook and Google. To have both Android and the Chrome OS is pretty phenomenal. Google is running strong still. Windows, on the other hand.

I want the Chrome OS netbook to be super light, super cheap, and I want the screen to be big enough. This has to feel like a mobile device, something you feel okay carrying around. And there should be a small smartphone like screen that you see even when you have it shut. You should be able to place calls. Or a tablet-netbook two in one. Or a three in one: smartphone, tablet, netbook. I want my Chrome OS close, I want my Android closer.


Chrome OS Site: Chrome OS To Arrive In October: actual device sales will be much latter on in the year, most probably just before the Christmas holidays.

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Facebook Needs To Revamp Email Next

NicoImage by Ian Muttoo via Flickr
Mark Zuckerberg: The Facebook Blog: Giving You More Control
Facebook's revamping the Groups feature is pretty fundamental. This has been a demand a long time. People have been saying that Facebook thinks people have only one social graph, the truth is people have many social graphs. I have not used the feature yet, just read about it, but looks like Facebook now lets you have your many social graphs.

And the download feature is Facebook nuking Diaspora. This is a preemptive strike and a pretty big one too. On the other hand now suddenly there is room for some smart aleck startup to do something pretty phenomenal. This is Diaspora's death sentence or its godsend. Is the glass empty or full? I don't know. Let Diaspora decide.

What got my attention though is what is missing. Facebook has not yet revamped its email program. It needs to. 2010 is the year of The Dreaded Inbox. The original app of the computing experience has become a monster. And I think Facebook is uniquely positioned to tackle this huge problem.

How about giving every Facebook user a Facebook email address? So I might get paramendra@facebookmail.com. And give each user three inboxes. Inbox 1 is for people who are in my social graph. Inbox 2 is for people who are not necessarily in my social graph, but they are on Facebook and they are sending the email while they are logged into Facebook. Inbox 3 is for people who are neither here nor there, as in they are maybe sending you email from their Gmail account, maybe.

That simple, doable step would solve a lot of inbox problems for a lot of people.

Email has to be a scalable experience. Right now it has stopped being an experience for most people. And so people go hide. They hide on Twitter, and Quora, and, yes, Facebook.

Inbox 2 perhaps should have bells and whistles. You can email someone not in your social graph, but when you do, you are giving them permission to take a look at your full profile for perhaps one day of opening the email.

This is akin to the priority inbox concept. All emails are not the same. All human beings are equal, but that does not apply to emails.

I think the best part of the new Groups feature for Facebook might be that people now have the option to create robust Facebook work groups, and Facebook can now go Facebook Enterprise. Do you smell money?

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Father Of India Dot Com Craze Gives A Thumbs Up To America

Esther's been a member of our board for some t...Image via Wikipedia

Rajesh Jain is the guy who started the dot com craze in India when he sold his dot com for I believe over a hundred million dollars to a local big shot Indian company. Rajesh got his education at Columbia University in New York City. Then he went back to India and has been doing big things since.

The first time I met Esther Dyson was at a NY Tech MeetUp. And she mentioned Rajesh Jain's work in that very first conversation.

Crisis: Opportunity For Greatness For Obama

Rajesh and I have exchanged emails over the years. I like to drop by his blog when I can. He is on my must meet in person some day list.

Rajesh' blog post today is one that many Americans could benefit from reading.
Rajesh Jain: The Secret Sauce of the US: The entrepreneurial energy in the US is still alive and kicking. That is what creates companies like Google, Apple, Cisco and Facebook. ..... There is that inherent belief that the world needs a better mousetrap - and they are the ones to do it.

Bloomberg: India's Economy May Expand 9.7% This Year, More Than Forecast, IMF Says: “Low reliance on exports, accommodative policies, and strong capital inflows have supported domestic activity and growth,” the IMF said in the report. “The rapid pace of domestic activity, evidenced by rapidly rising inflation, led the central bank to increase the repo policy rate.”

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Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Connect, Communicate, Conquer


(Via CaseyCulture)

Android Is Taking Over As Expected

A printed circuit board inside a mobile phoneImage via Wikipedia
New York Times: Bits: The iPhone Has a Real Fight on Its Hands: “Make no mistake: Google wants to kill the iPhone. We won’t let them.” ..... Phones powered by Google’s Android operating system are now the most popular among smartphones in the United States
It is not possible Apple is surprised by this. This has been a tussle not between rival technologies but rival philosophies, and open was bound to win. It was only a matter of time.

Android is not going to kill the iPhone, it is just going to walk away with the lion's share of the market. That is not death, that is diminution.

Android taking the lead is not news, Apple acting surprised would be. Save the headlines for Apple's reaction.
Newsweek: Android Invasion: Android now has leapt past Apple to become the biggest smart-phone platform in the United States, the third-biggest worldwide, and by far the fastest growing..... 11 million lines of code, the whole program takes up only 200 megabytes of space, about as much as 40 MP3 songs. .... reshaping the fortunes of the world’s biggest tech companies..... Apple’s momentum has stalled ..... by 2014 Android will have 25 percent market share in smart phones, more than double Apple’s 11 percent share ...... The mobile revolution may be the biggest wave ever to hit the world of computing. Just as mainframes gave way to minicomputers, which in turn gave way to personal computers, the PC now is being displaced by smart phones and tablets...... By next year 5 billion mobile phones will be in service, out of a total world population of about 7 billion .... smart phones represent a kind of “exobrain” that augments our regular brain ...... what happens when most of the residents of planet Earth carry a device that gives them instant access to pretty much all of the world’s information? The implications–for politics, for education, for global economics–are dizzying..... will so profoundly change the lives of people in the deepest rural parts of the emerging market ..... the biggest technology market that has ever existed. .... By 2013 the mobile Internet ecosystem–money spent on access fees, online commerce, paid services, and advertising–will be worth more than half a trillion dollars per year .... By collecting location information from mobile phones, for example, Nokia can make traffic predictions. .... a small computer that happens to make phone calls ..... Android-based phones already generate enough new advertising revenue to cover the cost of the software’s development .... 1 billion Android phones in the world and notes that if Google could get just $10 from each user per year ..... Rubin worked at Apple from 1989 to 1992 ..... He was hanging out on a beach in the Cayman Islands when he came up with the idea of creating an open-source operating system for mobile phones. ..... a compatibility test suite, a list of things a phone must have in order to carry the Android brand and to run Google applications like Google Maps ..... the lawsuits demonstrate that rivals recognize Android has become a serious threat..... Gingerbread .... Honeycomb


Android was not an in home innovation by Google. It was bought innovation, but Google still gets credit. Google spotted Android. There is a badge for that.

If the future of the web is mobile, as many say and I agree that to be true for the next five year period, definitely, then Android is in a sweet spot. Google as a company is still on the cutting edge. It does not need a Facebook envy.

Blog Carnival: Android
The Android Architecture
Android Netbook
Donut Android: Android 2.0
Android
Taking The Number 2 Spot On Google Search For Donut Android
Hitting Number 4 For Google Search Results on Cupcake Android
Donut Android: Windows 95, Android 2009?
Cupcake Android Delay Reason: Donut Android
Google Analytics Says I Am Paul Krugman Friend, Cupcake Android Expert
Cupcake: Android 1.5




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Monday, October 04, 2010

To Make Sense Of The Facebook Movie

Image representing David Kirkpatrick as depict...Image by www.dld-conference.com via CrunchBaseTo make sense of the Facebook movie, you necessarily have to read these two articles.

The Daily Beast: David Kirkpatrick: What's True in the Facebook Movie
Vanity Fair: David Kirkpatrick: With a Little Help From His Friends

The movie is well made, but it is a fictionalized account of what happened. The movie has major omissions.

A venture like Facebook can only be done justice in a book, or two, or three.
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Alexa Hirschfeld: CNN 2010 Most Powerful Women Entrepreneurs

CNN Money: the most innovative, ground-breaking, game-changing female entrepreneurs in the U.S.--business builders who might be Fortune Most Powerful Women someday. .... media pioneers and bioengineers and a variety of innovators in between.
I met Alexa for the first time during Social Media Week. (Social Media Week: The Best NY Tech MeetUp Ever) That was back in February. She sat on a Neha Chauhan (Women In Tech-Media Event At JP Morgan: Internet Week) panel that I declared the best panel of the week of all that I went to. I also met Alexa briefly during a NY Tech MeetUp after party a few months ago when she was floating around the room looking for a VentureBeat writer. She talked about a blog post of mine: Farmville Farmer's Market: My Idea. It is now so very good to see Alexa on CNN listed among the "2010 Most Powerful Women Entrepreneurs."

It is good to be mentioned on CNN, but I disapprove of the condescending tone in parts of the article.
The 2010 Most Powerful Women Entrepreneurs are not necessarily building the next Starbucks (SBUX) or Netflix (NFLX) or Apple (AAPL).
When was the last time Patricia Sellers created a company? (FoodSpotting Is The Next FourSquare)

Alexa is one of the younger names on the list.
How My Grandfather Became Mayor The First Time
ANTA Convention: Emotional Bath


Alexa Hirschfeld - LinkedIn
Alexa Hirschfeld | Facebook
Think Evite, for the Elites: Editors' Blog: Wmagazine.com
Online Stationery Company Gains a Fashionable Following - NYTimes.com


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Google TV: Much Talk



I go to Tumblr like some people go to their TV sets. I don't own a TV, never have. I follow about 90 techies on Tumblr. Other than that this blog of mine feeds directly into my Tumblr blog, I mostly just reblog at Tumblr. Following me on Tumblr is as good as following 90 people. I perform an editorial function mostly.

And today there is enormous buzz on Tumblr around Google TV. I have more questions than answers on the topic. I don't fully get it. I have not read up on it much. But the buzz is unavoidable.

I just want faster brodband when it comes to online video. My idea of a TV-internet merger is one where the TV simply disappears. But Google seems to think different.

By the way it was on Tumblr that I came across the Eminem video above. It is a work of art.

Official Google Blog: Here comes Google TV

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Microsoft: Android Cry Baby

735Image by Photography King ♛ via Flickr
TechCrunch: Microsoft’s Ballmer: Android Isn’t Really Free — You Have To Pay Us For Patents: this is all political nonsense and a pathetic play by Microsoft...... The software giant hasn’t been successful in mobile phones, so they’re attempting to ride on Google’s coattails with some software patents. ..... Microsoft is giving phone makers a choice: pay us to use our software, or pay us to use Google’s software. Or pay your lawyers to fight us in court. (Motorola is apparently choosing the latter — no doubt at Google’s urging.)

Microsoft has been left in the dust. It is nowhere on the smartphone stage. It is missing in action on the tablet stage. It was never nowhere on the data software stage. Bing is a joke. And Google is busy cannibalizing Windows - hello Chrome OS, hello Android - and Office - hello Google Apps. So Microsofties actually held a party in Redmond - not making this up - where they ritually buried the iPhone. That has to be a joke.

Now they are out to use legal shenanigans to hurt Android. Android is free. It is meant to be free. So is Windows. Put out a free, minimalist Windows if you want to keep competing. That is the message. Now the innovation is in taking things out and keeping the bare minimum, not in adding yet another feature no one wants and that gives everyone headaches.

But then what is an Economics major CEO gonna do?

TechCrunch

If Web 1.0’s Kryptonite Was the Bust, Web 2.0 Kryptonite Was the Grind: the CEO and founder of the media company I work for were on stage looking awkward and white, but dancing none the less. ..... One word has summed both of these guys for a while now: Tired...... and for me, mostly ended last week when TechCrunch was sold. But the recession didn’t crash this one– exhaustion did. Building media companies– which is what most Web 2.0 businesses are– is a grind. .... We make startups sound easier and more glamorous than they are..... the Industry Standard– the magazine that chronicled the 1990s bubble and held weekly rooftop parties ... A few million dollars is life changing for most people

Opening Weekend: The Social Network Tops Box Office With $23 Million In Ticket Sales

Should Entrepreneurs Bet It All On The Billion Dollar Exit, Or Cash Out Small?: entrepreneurs are almost always wrong. They really don’t understand their customers; they learn by trial and error..... all the Groupon clones. .... If you’re a founder and own 50% of your startup, a $30 million acquisition can be life-changing. With a $15 million payout, you go from poverty to riches. You’re set for life

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Sunday, October 03, 2010

Steve Jobs Should Never Have Been Fired

Steve Jobs, portrait by italian artist Grazian...Image via Wikipedia
New York Times: What Steve Jobs Learned in the Wilderness: But the Jobs of the mid-1980s probably never could have made Apple what it is today if he hadn’t embarked on a torment-filled business odyssey. ..... The Steve Jobs who returned to Apple was a much more capable leader — precisely because he had been badly banged up. He had spent 12 tumultuous, painful years failing to find a way to make the new company profitable. .... In this period, Mr. Jobs did not do much delegating. ...... Apple acquired the company in 1997 and used Next’s software as the basis for the new operating system, Mac OS X...... He didn’t invent the media player, the smartphone or the tablet, but he understood that no one else had yet come up with the equivalent of a Mac. ..... “He’s the same Steve in his passion for excellence, but a new Steve in his understanding of how to empower a large company to realize his vision.”

I am not an Apple person. I have never bought an Apple product, and I think I might stick to that. My smartphone is going to be an Android. I have no plans to get an iPad. I am psyched instead about the Chrome OS netbook. I love Google like some people love Apple. My blogs are on Blogger, not Wordpress.

But Steve Jobs fascinates me, and his story is legend. I am a Steve Jobs fan. Sure. Steve Jobs is no Mozart, not even close. But he strikes me as someone who perhaps really, truly appreciates genius, perhaps the genius of a Mozart, or of an Einstein. His Think Different campaign was modeled after Einstein.

Steve Jobs is not Einstein or Mozart. Einstein and Mozart belong with each other, not Steve Jobs. Steve Jobs belongs to a different club, the club of Larry Ellison and Steve Jobs. That club has few members. College dropouts not born into moneyed backgrounds who changed the trajectories of business history. These are by definition people that talent hunters, recruiters can not find for you. These are not people who are meant to be understood until after the fact, until they have done what needs to be done, and the excellence is out there for the world to see.

Steve Jobs in the wilderness reminds me of the scenes in the Mozart movie where the guy is left out to pasture. He is left to die by people who are too insignificant for the age they live in, let alone for the ages.

"Those people should not have that kind of power," Mozart says at one point. That is how I feel about people who fired Steve Jobs. Those dumbfucks should never have had the power to decide if Steve Jobs should even be fired. There I stand with Larry Ellison.

It took a Larry Ellison to get Steve Jobs back at Apple. Larry knows how to throw his weight around, and he threw his weight around on behalf of his new found best friend, Steve Jobs. It is not like the people who fired Steve Jobs finally decided that Jobs had learned his lessons and now he can come back. They were long gone.

When you give dumb people too much power, Steve Jobs gets fired and a company like Apple loses a decade of its life. Corporate monkeys did not know how to respect a Steve Jobs.

The Leo Apotheker Is Human Drama
New York Times: Mark Zuckerberg’s Most Valuable Friend: her regular meetings with the famously introverted Mr. Zuckerberg .... Facebook has successfully navigated one of the more perilous stages in a start-up’s life: a period of hypergrowth. ..... Ms. Sandberg’s close ties to many of the world’s largest advertisers, relationships she first developed as a senior executive at Google. ..... has freed Mr. Zuckerberg to focus on what he likes best: the Facebook Web site and its platform. ..... Mr. Zuckerberg, a 26-year-old engineer and product visionary, is socially awkward and reserved. At 41, Ms. Sandberg is the opposite: polished, personable, chatty and at ease in the limelight. ..... Sandberg, who has a Harvard M.B.A. .... Eric Schmidt, Google’s chief executive, says he considers Ms. Sandberg to be a “superstar.” ...... “A lot of people choose to hire people who look exactly like them,” Mr. Zuckerberg says. “Here we just value balance a lot more. It takes work to build those relationships, but if it does work, you end up with a much better system.” ...... Mr. Zuckerberg met Ms. Sandberg at a Christmas party in 2007, and they immediately took a liking to each other. What followed was an intense, six-week business courtship, during which the two dined together multiple times a week. Because both of them are Silicon Valley celebrities, they typically ate at Ms. Sandberg’s house so they could keep their talks confidential. ....... Sandberg also oversees the seemingly arcane operational details that can help a company run smoothly — especially a company that is growing rapidly...... “She’s good at strategy and dives deep and understands how teams work together.” ..... To this day, Ms. Sandberg looks a bit out of place at Facebook. ...... Their penchant for jeans, T-shirts and hoodies is in sharp contrast to her taste for elegant clothing. ...... She went desk to desk to introduce herself, cracking jokes and asking questions. It had the desired effect. ..... mentoring many younger employees — especial
Image representing Mark Zuckerberg as depicted...Image via CrunchBasely women, encouraging many of them not to shy away from important roles simply because they were planning to start families. ..... Although she was still in her 20s, she played pivotal roles, like helping ramp up aid efforts to Africa by opening Treasury’s door to Bono of U2. ..... “I had never heard of him and said to Sheryl that I only meet with people who have a first name and last name,” Mr. Summers recalls...... The two often socialize, and Mr. Zuckerberg, who was captain of his high school fencing team, has taught Ms. Sandberg’s 5-year-old son a few fencing moves.



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