"The federal government is picking off democratic institutions at all levels of American life one by one. Harvard’s brave choice to stand by the academic project should be a blueprint for the rest of civil society to follow." https://t.co/i0KBul1kam
Donald Trump's Approval Rating Implodes With Republican Pollster A shift in his numbers could influence support from Republican lawmakers, affect his ability to push through his agenda and shape the political landscape heading into the midterm election cycle in 2026. ......... A new poll from a prominent Republican firm shows Trump's approval rating taking a sharp dive. ......... According to an Echelon Insights poll conducted between April 10 and 14 among 1,014 likely voters, Trump's approval rating currently stands at 47 percent, with 51 percent disapproving, giving him a net rating of +8 points....... Despite Trump's partial pause, the tariffs have driven fears of a potential recession, and the president's approval ratings have taken a hit. ........ Trump's 45 percent approval rating is lower than former President Joe Biden's popularity at the same point in his presidency. On April 15, 2021, Biden stood at 54 percent, with a disapproval rating of 41 percent ......... The pollster said the figure made him less popular than any president since 1953 at the start of a term and the only one to begin with a sub-50 percent approval rating. Gallup said Biden started to his first term with a 57 percent approval rating.
Export-Led Growth vs. Consumption-Led Growth: Which Model Wins in the Long Run?
Two Economic Engines, One Global Race
Introduction
As nations chart their economic futures, a fundamental question looms large: Should we produce for the world, or produce for ourselves? In economic terms, this boils down to a strategic choice between export-led growth and consumption-led growth.
Export-led economies focus on manufacturing goods for external markets, while consumption-led economies are powered by the spending habits of their own citizens. Both models have propelled countries to prosperity—but each has limitations. So which strategy offers the most sustainable path in the long run?
What Is Export-Led Growth?
Export-led growth is an economic strategy that focuses on producing goods for export rather than for domestic consumption.
Key Features:
Strong focus on manufacturing
High savings and investment rates
Competitive currency policies
Government support for key industries
Famous Examples:
China from the 1980s to the 2010s
South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, and Japan post-WWII
Advantages:
Rapid industrialization
Job creation and productivity growth
Foreign currency accumulation and trade surpluses
Integration into global supply chains
Limitations:
Vulnerability to global demand shocks
Risk of overcapacity and deflation
Suppressed domestic consumption
Political backlash from trade partners
What Is Consumption-Led Growth?
Consumption-led growth puts household spending and services at the center of the economy. Instead of exporting to others, the nation’s own population drives demand.
Key Features:
Higher wages and disposable income
Robust social safety nets
Developed services sector
Less reliance on exports
Famous Examples:
United States, United Kingdom, and increasingly India
Advantages:
Resilience to global trade disruptions
Stable, long-term domestic demand
Encourages innovation in services, tech, and lifestyle sectors
Reduces international tensions over trade imbalances
Limitations:
Risk of high consumer debt
Potential trade deficits and reliance on foreign goods
Inflationary pressures if supply lags behind demand
Less incentive for industrial productivity gains
Economic Theory: Balance is the Key
From a macroeconomic perspective, both strategies can work—but neither is flawless in isolation.
Export-led growth works best during the early stages of industrialization. It helps countries climb the value chain by leveraging cheap labor, acquiring technology, and building infrastructure. However, once an economy matures, over-reliance on exports becomes a liability, especially in a world where global demand is uncertain and protectionism is rising.
Consumption-led growth, on the other hand, becomes more viable as societies get wealthier. It provides internal stability and insulates the economy from external shocks. But if not managed properly, it can lead to unsustainable debt levels, asset bubbles, and stagnating productivity.
Global Shifts: The End of the Export-Led Era?
We are entering a new phase of the global economy:
Automation and reshoring are reducing the appeal of low-cost exports.
Geopolitical tensions are disrupting global trade flows.
Climate concerns are pressuring economies to localize production.
Rising protectionism is making it harder to depend on external demand.
Even traditional export giants like China and Germany are now pushing for more domestic consumption as the future growth engine.
Who Wins in the Long Run?
The answer isn't binary. The most resilient economies will likely blend the best of both worlds:
Start with export-led growth to build industrial capacity and create jobs.
Transition to consumption-led growth once a middle class is established and productive capacity is high.
Develop a diversified economy where both internal and external demand support each other.
South Korea and Japan offer instructive models—both moved from export dependence to more balanced, service-driven economies. China is in the middle of this transition. India is attempting to leapfrog straight into a hybrid model, driven by its massive internal market and growing export capacity.
Conclusion: The Future Is Mixed, Adaptive, and Strategic
The long-term winner isn’t a country that chooses one model over the other. It’s the country that knows when and how to pivot.
Export-led growth is like sprinting—fast, powerful, but not sustainable forever. Consumption-led growth is a marathon—steady, internally driven, but needing endurance and balance.
The global economy rewards agility. The most successful nations of the 21st century will be those that can switch gears, develop domestic resilience, and remain globally competitive—all at once.
Bipartisan Senate resolution would repeal Trump's tariffs amid his global trade war: 'Enough is enough' "Tariffs are taxes, and the power to tax belongs to Congress—not the president," Paul said in a statement. "Our Founders were clear: tax policy should never rest in the hands of one person. Abusing emergency powers to impose blanket tariffs not only drives up costs for American families but also tramples on the Constitution. It’s time Congress reasserts its authority and restores the balance of power." ....... "Trump is driving our economy into a recession, killing jobs and wiping out seniors’ retirement funds as we speak," Wyden said. "Enough is enough. No president should have the power to tax everything Americans buy without being accountable to Congress. Unless Republicans join with Democrats and take back Congress’s power over trade policy, the damage could take years to reverse."
‘Totally Silly.’ Trump’s Focus on Trade Deficit Bewilders Economists.Behind Trump’s new tariffs is a goal that is as ambitious as it is unrealistic: eliminating the bilateral trade deficit with every U.S. trading partner. ‘We’re Playing With Fire’: The Risks of Trump’s Tariffs on China Binyamin Appelbaum on the president’s rushed and rash trade war. Trump and Netanyahu Steer Toward an Ugly World, Together There’s Nothing Real About Trump’s ‘Real America’ How Trump Wiped Out $10 Trillion in Wealth in 3 Days A Playbook for Standing Up to President Trump the beginnings of a playbook for standing up to his attempts to weaken core tenets of American democracy, including due process, free speech and the constitutional system of checks and balances. ....... law firms have already won court rulings that block Mr. Trump’s executive orders against them. ....... Courts, including the Supreme Court, rejected his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election result; prevented him from adding a citizenship question to the census; and blocked his family-separation policy at the southern border. A grass-roots political movement helped defeat his effort to repeal Obamacare even though Republicans controlled both the House and Senate. ........ Anybody who has dealt with a schoolyard bully should recognize this principle: The illusion of invincibility is often his greatest asset. .......... One firm that was subject to an executive order — Paul, Weiss — surrendered and promised concessions, including $40 million in pro bono work for Trump-friendly causes. Three other firms — Milbank; Skadden, Arps; and Willkie Farr & Gallagher — proactively agreed to deals with the White House and made their own concessions. ......... A crucial fact about these agreements is that they include no binding promises from the White House. Mr. Trump can threaten the firms again whenever he chooses and demand further concessions. These firms are in virtual receivership to Mr. Trump. So is Columbia, which yielded to Mr. Trump after he threatened its federal funding. The university did not even win the restoration of that funding when it agreed to his demands; it won merely permission to begin negotiating with the administration........... “Once you make concessions once, it’s hard not to make them again,” Christopher Eisgruber, the president of Princeton University and a legal scholar by training, said when discussing the attacks on higher education. .......... The three law firms that have filed suits to block Mr. Trump’s executive orders — Jenner & Block, Perkins Coie and WilmerHale — provide a model. So far, they are winning in court. Importantly, they have won the backing of many conservatives. As our counterparts on The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board wrote, Mr. Trump’s campaign against law firms “breaks a cornerstone principle of American justice.” ........... Already, some students at top law schools say they will no longer interview with firms like Skadden. “We’re not looking to sacrifice our moral values,” one student at Georgetown University said. .......... The United States is home to an outsize share of financial and corporate activity partly because investors have confidence that the rule of law prevails here. If political power instead supersedes signed contracts and the rule of law, American business will suffer.
The Trump White House Cited My Research to Justify Tariffs. It Got It All Wrong. My first question, when the White House unveiled its tariff regime, was: How on earth did it calculate such huge rates? Reciprocal tariffs, after all, are supposed to treat other countries the way they treat us, and foreign tariffs on American goods are nowhere near these levels......... Americans spend more on clothing made in Sri Lanka than Sri Lankans spend on American pharmaceuticals and gas turbines. So what? That pattern reflects differences in natural resources, comparative advantage and development levels. The deficit numbers don’t suggest, let alone prove, unfair competition...........
The Nobel laureate Robert Solow explained why when he quipped, “I have a chronic deficit with my barber, who doesn’t buy a darned thing from me.”
.......... A large tariff on Japanese auto parts could cause an increase in demand for imports from Mexico and vice versa. And the tariffs clearly invite retaliation and may over time increase the dollar’s value, both factors that would most likely depress U.S. exports. ........... We found that tariffs of, say, 20 percent caused domestic importers to pay nearly 19 percent more. This represents a pass-through into import prices of about 95 percent, which is the value I would have plugged into the government’s tariff formula. In simple terms, that implies that the price paid for U.S. imports would rise almost as much as the tariff rate.
Immigration Enforcement Under Trump Is Going Rogue Federal law enforcement under President Trump is engaged in dangerous political theater, with high-profile arrests of non-citizen students, workers and parents set up to score political points more than to protect national security........... Right now, the government is burning thousands of federal law enforcement hours on operations that privilege political objectives over public safety, attacking constitutional protections like due process and free speech as they do. If this administration doesn’t correct course, it will lock the country into a future of weaker enforcement, lowered trust in public safety officials and greater risk to Americans’ collective safety. .......... As each successive administration relied more on executive power to manage the system, Congress did not pass structured, long-term immigration reform. ........... The new Trump White House is finding ever more cruel, even brutal, methods to publicly target some of the most vulnerable people in this country. While Americans are distracted by sensational videos of anti-migrant enforcement actions from the Trump administration on social media, the real threats grow. ........ The homeland security secretary, Kristi Noem, recently announced that federal agents arrested roughly 20,000 undocumented people across the country in February. That doesn’t mean 20,000 national security threats were removed from the United States. On average, the United States can deport only about 7,000 to 9,000 people monthly by plane, and detention centers were at maximum capacity. So what happened to the 13,000 other migrants who were arrested? The only rational law enforcement step would be to process and then release them. That means law enforcement’s time, energy and focus were wasted on a political stunt. .............. Every ICE agent dispatched to detain a noncriminal farmworker, construction laborer or college student — many, if not most, of whom have legal standing to work and study in our communities — is an ICE agent not investigating fentanyl networks, cyberattacks, human trafficking or transnational gangs. Those are the actual bad actors who threaten American safety and sovereignty. .......... ICE and U.S. Customs and Border Protection have greater authority than most Americans realize. They can detain people without a warrant, conduct searches without probable cause and deport people without criminal charges. These powers demand discipline, not spectacle. ........... They do not exist to target migrant grandmothers from Guatemala, unaccompanied children fleeing gang violence, Haitian families seeking asylum from political collapse, Palestinian and Indian students who attended U.S. universities under lawful visas, or Mexican and Salvadoran families working and raising U.S. citizen children while trapped in immigration backlogs. ............ When ICE and C.B.P. are used in this manner, their mission is compromised. Career agents are sidelined. Morale drops. Recruitment suffers. When communities see federal law enforcement used to punish rather than to protect, they stop cooperating. Law enforcement loses tips, and witnesses. Local partners hesitate to share information. That’s how dangerous actors slip through. ............. The real bad actors are getting smarter and faster. Mexican cartels use tunnels and ultralight aircraft to move narcotics. Cybercriminals attack hospitals and rural infrastructure. International smuggling operations launder profits through cryptocurrency.
After I Self-Deported From the U.S., My Life Improved That day, I found out that no one cares if an undocumented immigrant leaves America............ In my experience, America had become a place to flee from, not to. At the time I lived in New York without papers, I couldn’t secure a license to drive, afford to go to college, start a career, get health care, vote, open a bank account or travel freely. My life was a struggle with domestic and sexual violence, financial hardship and suicide attempts. By self-deporting, I ended my American life to save what remained of my actual life. ........ Acquiring a British spouse visa was straightforward, in my experience smoother than America’s processes. My new start in London was suffused with unfamiliar optimism. Freed from being undocumented, and even without a bachelor’s degree, I graduated with two master’s degrees, one from Cambridge University in creative writing. ......... In tears of guilt, I remembered my parents, struggling in the ’90s to be legalized, fleeced by unscrupulous immigration lawyers until time ran out on their tourist visas.
A Big Idea to Solve America’s Immigration Mess The federal government’s ability to regulate immigration, a basic function of any nation, is broken. Over the past four years, some eight million people settled in the United States, and most of them did so unlawfully. Instead of an immigration policy calibrated to the needs of the country, both Americans and immigrants are being let down by a set of outdated laws inconsistently enforced by underfunded agencies. Chaos has been a predictable result........ mass deportations, or reductions in future immigration, are not in the national interest. .........
Immigrants are America’s rocket fuel, powering our nation’s unsurpassed economic and cultural achievements.
The famous poem inscribed on the Statue of Liberty mischaracterizes those who leave their home countries behind. They are not the tired and the poor; they are people possessed of the determination, skill and resources to seek a better life. Nobel Prizes have been awarded to 142 immigrants to the United States. Nearly half of the companies in the Fortune 500 were founded by immigrants or their children. Blue jeans, Tesla, basketball, “God Bless America” — all the work of immigrants............... There’s a more basic imperative, too. America needs more people. Americans no longer make enough babies to maintain the country’s population. To sustain economic growth, the United States needs an infusion of a few million immigrants every year. ............. Without immigrants, the population would start to decline immediately, leaving employers short-handed, curtailing the economy’s potential and causing the kinds of strains on public services and society that have plagued Rust Belt cities for decades. ............ In Japan, where the population has been in decline since 2009, there are no longer enough postal workers to deliver mail on Saturdays. Nine million homes have been abandoned, and a recent report estimated that more than 40 percent of Japanese municipalities might disappear. The challenges prompted Fumio Kishida, then the prime minister, to declare in January 2023 that “Japan is standing on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society.” ........... Democrats should embrace the need to control who enters the country. High rates of immigration across Europe and North America have not led to more tolerance of newcomers but instead have led to a resurgence of nativist political movements that have shaken liberal democracy. Climate change is likely to increase the pressure by propelling more migrants to search for safety and opportunity. The United States cannot admit everyone who wishes to come, and the choice of who may come should be intentional, not a result of a government’s lack of the will and the capacity to enforce its own laws.......... But as immigrants spend the money they earn, they create more jobs than they fill. ......... The C.B.O. predicts that by 2034, because of the surge in immigration, the nation’s annual economic output will be 3 percent larger. ......... in a study published in 2017, the economists Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan found that the current generation of immigrants was assimilating culturally and prospering economically at essentially the same pace as previous generations. ........... “The children of immigrants from El Salvador are as likely to be economically successful nowadays as were the children of immigrants from Great Britain 150 years ago,” they wrote in “Streets of Gold,” a 2022 book describing their research. ............. In contrast to Houston, Alabama, in 2011, passed what was then the most restrictive anti-immigration measure in the country. It prohibited hiring, renting property to or transporting undocumented immigrants. It denied financial aid at state universities to undocumented students. Some parts of the law have since been repealed, but the state’s politicians continue to demonize immigrants, even though Alabama has relatively few. .......... The state’s hostility to immigration helps to explain why Birmingham has lost population in every decade since 1960. It is a city of unfilled spaces — vacant lots, parking lots — and of open jobs. Alabama in August had just 55 available workers for every 100 job openings, among the lowest rates in the country ............... In 1965, the Black playwright Douglas Turner Ward premiered a one-act satire that revolved around the premise that all of the Black workers in a Southern town had disappeared. Homes went uncleaned. Babies went unfed. The town’s factories were shuttered. A local businessman complained that “the absence of handymen, porters, sweepers, stock-movers, deliverers and miscellaneous dirty-work doers is disrupting the smooth harmony of marketing!” ............. Immigrants are now the dirty-work doers. Americans rely on people born in other countries to pick crops, pluck chickens, build homes. Visit a wealthy neighborhood in the middle of the day, and you will find the streets alive with immigrants caring for the children, the dogs and the lawns. ............ It is a bitter irony that even as the United States was ending the legal segregation of African Americans, it was effectively creating a new caste system in which many immigrants were enlisted as workers but excluded from becoming citizens. Roughly 11 million people, one-fourth of the foreign-born population, do not have permission to live here. ............. Mr. Trump will not succeed in making immigrants disappear. During his first term, he deported 325,000 people who were living in the U.S. Even if he deports 10 times as many in his second term, a volume many experts regard as beyond the government’s capacity, millions of immigrants would remain in the country, more vulnerable to exploitation because it will be dangerous for them to seek help. ............. Americans face a choice between perpetuating a society maintained by an underclass of unauthorized workers or moving closer to the democratic ideal of a nation of citizens — a nation in which all are equal before the law. As Chief Justice Earl Warren wrote in 1958, “citizenship is man’s basic right, for it is nothing less than the right to have rights.” ........ In the mid-2000s, Todd Davis, chief executive of an identity-protection company called LifeLock, published his Social Security number on billboards as a marketing gimmick. A Houston lawyer who works on immigration cases said he found at least 165 instances in which undocumented workers in the Houston area used Mr. Davis’s number. ............ The government’s longstanding focus on policing immigrants rather than employers is akin to arresting drug users rather than dealers, and it has been roughly as successful. ......... He was caught at the border five times before he succeeded in crossing on the sixth attempt. In Houston, he took a job as a dishwasher. Four decades later, he is a Houston icon, the chef and a co-owner of a string of celebrated restaurants. “I put my life at risk to come here, and I would do it in a heartbeat again and again and again,” he said.
Immigration Is Great for Jobs, Actually We’ve been able to achieve large increases in overall employment only because working-age immigrants have been coming to America. If we didn’t have the immigrants, we wouldn’t have the jobs.
