Showing posts with label New Deal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New Deal. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Another Trillion To Buy Real Estate?

World Trade Organization accession and membershipImage via WikipediaI have not followed the Fed's corner of the house as closely as the president's corner, but I get the impression the Fed put a trillion into real estate already and is about to put another trillion into it. This sounds like madness.

The wise guys on Wall Street cooked up nefarious schemes that inflated real estate prices, created a bubble, brought the economy down, and now the Fed is supposed to keep those artificially inflated prices propped up?

Why? Because a broken political system will not allow the president to instead pump a trillion into the 2010 version of the New Deal, but it will allow the unelected Fed chair to play around with a trillion dollars?

Many have speculated this is the Roman empire collapsing. Those who the gods seek to destroy, they first make them mad.

I am for a second stimulus bill of perhaps a trillion poured into drastic job creation.

And all the work of creating the global institutions for the next phase of globalization is yet to be done. There can be no real recovery without that.

Those who say this is like the Great Depression are right. Where they get it wrong is when they don't face the fact that now the entire world is a stage. It is one world. The reason people acted surprised when the bottom fell out was because they had their US goggles on. Put on world goggles. Then you can see.

Can a democracy make its people lose weight? That is the challenge. Instead the democracy continues to gorge on French fries and tea parties. Some hard choices are going to have to be made.

BusinessWeek

Germany At 20: Special Report
Germany's Growth: New Rules, Old Companies: As most developed nations stumble in the race against emerging nations, here's how Germany has succeeded in keeping skilled labor working in good jobs....($3.23 trillion) gross domestic product .... , labor market measures begun in 2003 under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder made it easier to hire and fire workers, and Germany's Mittelstand have proved nimble competitors ...... German labor unions gave up wage increases in return for job security. ..... The Mittelstand companies, which typically employ fewer than 500 workers, comprise more than 70 percent of German workers and contribute roughly half of the country's GDP. The Mittelstand also embodies the German approach to business practice—paternalistic, consensual, conservative, and arguably more effective over the long haul than what Germans sometimes dismiss as American-style cowboy capitalism...... Mittelstand companies have emerged as successful models in an era of globalization—agile creatures darting between the legs of the multinational monsters..... Rather than firing workers, companies reduced hours, saving almost half a million jobs. ..... a system of worktime accounts that enabled employees to work fewer hours without a reduction in pay, in exchange for promising to work more hours without a salary increase when business picks up..... By May of this year, unemployment in Germany was at 7 percent, a 17-year low..... they prefer bank loans to selling bonds or issuing stock ..... it was wage restraint over the last 10 years that's responsible for Germany's success

Goldman Sachs Says U.S. Economy May Be ‘Fairly Bad’: “A fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1 1/2 percent to 2 percent rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to an outright recession.” ...... The Fed bought $1.7 trillion worth of Treasury and mortgage debt in a program that ended in March. The purchases helped push mortgage rates to historic lows. ... Bernanke said Oct. 4 that restarting large- scale asset purchases would probably spur growth




China Hardens Opposition Over Yuan Gains, Tells EU to Back Off: “Europe shouldn’t join the choir” ..... If we increase the yuan by 20-40 percent as some people are calling for, many of our factories will shut down and society will be in turmoil.” ..... Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega warned of a global “currency war.”

Book Excerpt: The Mesh

India Can Help Obama Reach Export Goal: The last time U.S. exports doubled in five years was 1981-1986, when Ronald Reagan was President—and Japan, not China, was the economy Americans feared most. ..... China, India, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico. ..... the Indian economy is the world's fourth-wealthiest—based on purchasing power parity—after the U.S., Japan, and China. ....... the country will keep growing at close to 10 percent in the next decade ..... "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the U.S.?" Some 76 percent of Indian citizens responded affirmatively. ..... Americans are better-liked in India than almost anywhere else in the world ........ Today the U.S. is the world's breadbasket. In India you will find Washington State apples as well as California almonds and pistachios ..... India now hopes for a trillion-dollar upgrade of roads, bridges, power plants, harbors and more. .... Carter was the last President to travel to India within two years of taking office

Volcker Says Nations May Face Prolonged Unemployment: the U.S. and other developed nations face the prospect of protracted joblessness. ..... “This has not been an ordinary recession,” Volcker, 83, said today in a speech in Toronto. It’s “very difficult to find a sector in the American economy that has any spark to it” ..... the Chinese are stuck with dollars and we’re stuck with indebtedness.”

Enhanced by Zemanta

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

What If The Plateau Lasts Nine Months?

.

Jumping from the Kawarau Bridge in Queenstown,...Image via Wikipedia


That Plateau Feeling
Job Hunting And 2.0
New York City: Transformed Forever?
Reimagining The Office
Microfinance, Nanotech, Biotech, Software/Hardware/Connectivity
David Gelernter: Manifesto
Visionary Entrepreneurs Will Recreate The World
Sites That Pay You To Blog

That Plateau Feeling?

I blogged about it: That Plateau Feeling. But have we really hit the plateau phase? Or are we still in the bungee jump phase? It is possible for the financial markets to hit the plateau phase, and for the job markets to still be in the bungee jump phase. Usually the financial sector recovers first.

Budget

Cut expenses mercilessly. This is for personal and family budgets.

Work

Even if it is a much lower paying job. Can't eat into savings too much, and not forever.

Reinvent

We live in a day and age when people will have several careers, not jobs but careers, over a lifetime. Reinvent yourself.

Focus On Personal Growth: Prepare For Takeoff

There is the bungee jump phase. That, by definition, can not last forever even if it lasts longer than anticipated. Then there in the plateau phase. Then there is the takeoff phase. The plateau phase is the time to prepare for the takeoff phase.

The Best Things In Life Are Free



Really. Life slowing down is not all bad news. In many ways it is good news. A slower life is time to discover people, relationships, hobbies. It is time to catch up on books you always wanted to read. It is time to hone on skills that you think you will need once it is time to takeoff.

This perhaps is good time to smell the roses.

That 90-10 Rule

If 10% of the people are unemployed, 90% are still working. But then there are pockets of 22% unemployment rates. And that is not even taking into account the chronic unemployment in the inner cities, and other underserved areas. That is not taking into account the permanent poverty in much of the world.

That Plateau Feeling?

What if America and the world hit a new plateau of lower paying jobs across the board? That would not be a happy plateau. Personally I don't think that is where we are headed. But then I am counting on the political leadership to deliver. (30 Points Down In The Polls) The financial markets will be regulated, and made sane. This economy will be restructured.

Time To Make Big Fortunes

The most trailblazing of companies have been founded in the most depressing of times. This time that is going to be extra true.

Globoeconomics: Name Of The Game
A Single Global Currency, A Global New Deal, A Global Economic Council
A Brighter Future Ahead
Needed: A New Global Financial Architecture
Stimulus: Make It A Trillion
Stimulus: Size Matters
Global Finance, Global Terrorism, Global Warming
'Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?'
'That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,' said the Cat.
'I don't much care where --' said Alice.
'Then it doesn't matter which way you go,' said the Cat.
'--so long as I get somewhere,' Alice added as an explanation.



Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

Friday, April 17, 2009

That Plateau Feeling



(Krugman, December 2007)

The Wall Street Crash of 1929, the beginning o...Image via Wikipedia

There was the original bailout before America even had elections. Then there was the jumbo stimulus package. And then the G20 summit where the world leaders took substantive action. Next thing you know good news started trickling out of Wall Street. It is not exactly time to throw a party yet. There is no boom feeling. But I have a feeling the big crisis that has been blowing hot and cold for the past eight months might have plateaued.

The good news is the steep fall part of the bungee jump might be over. The bad news is there is no telling how long the plateau might last. The worse news is we are not in the upswing phase yet. And you still hear the sound of glass being broken.

The US economy, and the global economy are such big monsters, it is hard for any government to steer them in any direction at any speed. It is kind of like trying to give a 180 degree turn to the Titanic.



For the past decade we have talked of global warming, and we have talked of global terror. But we were not exactly talking global finance. Imagine twice as many hurricanes any given year. Imagine 10 dirty bombs in the 10 big cities of the world on the same day. Those would be the climate and terror versions of what we have been going through in finance.

The pain has been very real, and ultimately it is for the political leadership to steer a course. We have to have a healthy, robust debate all along. We have to be creative, inventive. We have to do the sane thing, the right thing. We have to think long term. We are in this together. This is one world, one planet, one globe.

Onto A Nuclear Weapons Free Planet
A Single Global Currency, A Global New Deal, A Global Economic Council
A Brighter Future Ahead
Old White Men Need To Chew Gum
Needed: A New Global Financial Architecture
The State Of The Union Will Be Strong
Mideast: Permanent Peace Is Possible
Stimulus: Make It A Trillion
Stimulus: Size Matters
Global Finance, Global Terrorism, Global Warming



Reblog this post [with Zemanta]