Netizen: Ending the US-China Trade War: A Roadmap Toward Stability and Shared Prosperity

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Ending the US-China Trade War: A Roadmap Toward Stability and Shared Prosperity

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Ending the US-China Trade War: A Roadmap Toward Stability and Shared Prosperity

The trade war between the United States and China, now stretching over multiple years and administrations, has left deep marks on global supply chains, investor confidence, and consumer prices. While initially launched to address genuine imbalances—such as intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and market access restrictions—the trade war has since ballooned into a complex geopolitical standoff. However, both nations now face strong incentives to de-escalate. Here's how they could do it.

1. Establish a Bilateral Trade Reset Framework

Both sides should agree to a comprehensive trade reset framework, involving:

Rollback of excess tariffs: Gradual removal of tariffs introduced since 2018, starting with non-strategic sectors like consumer goods and electronics.
Third-party arbitration mechanisms: Reinforce trade dispute resolution under the WTO or a new bilateral panel to handle grievances swiftly and fairly.
Sunset clause for punitive tariffs: Automatically remove tariffs unless specific violations are proven and mutually agreed upon.

2. Prioritize Sector-Specific Agreements

Targeted deals in key sectors can rebuild trust and create early wins:

Technology: Agreement on joint cybersecurity standards, clear rules for data privacy, and a ban on forced tech transfers.
Agriculture: Stable purchasing commitments from China for U.S. soybeans, corn, and meat, in return for eased export restrictions on high-value Chinese goods.
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare: Cooperation in post-COVID biotech research and medical supplies, reinforcing mutual dependency.

3. Rebuild Institutional Dialogue Channels

The collapse of formal diplomatic and economic dialogue structures has fueled uncertainty. Restoring and expanding:

US-China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED): Reviving this high-level platform would allow structured negotiations on macroeconomic coordination, trade balances, and market reforms.
Academic and think tank exchanges: Building long-term goodwill through shared economic modeling and strategy workshops.

4. Normalize Tech and Investment Rules

Technology is at the core of today’s economic cold war. Solutions include:

Agreeing on "safe zones" in tech trade: For example, components for consumer electronics versus those for military applications.
Investment transparency: A bilateral framework that clarifies national security restrictions while ensuring fair access to venture capital and startup markets.
Joint AI and semiconductors research forums: Encourage controlled cooperation on foundational technologies to reduce suspicion.

5. Coordinate Multilateral Pressure on Fair Trade

Rather than unilateral actions, the U.S. could:

Work with allies in the G7 or Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) to pressure China collectively on issues like IP theft or state subsidies.
China could likewise cooperate more transparently within RCEP or BRICS frameworks, adopting reform-minded stances to improve its global image.

6. Address Structural Reform Together

China can ease tensions by:

Further opening sectors like finance, education, and digital services.
Enhancing protections for foreign investors under Chinese law.
Clarifying state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform timelines.

The U.S. can reciprocate by:

Loosening some export restrictions for non-sensitive sectors.
Offering tariff exemptions to Chinese companies that comply with fair trade benchmarks.
Supporting WTO reform that includes China more integrally.

7. Craft a New Strategic Economic Agreement

Rather than returning to the flawed Phase One deal, a longer-term agreement could be negotiated with:

Clear enforcement mechanisms.
Annual economic summits.
Shared goals around climate finance, AI governance, and green technology cooperation.

Conclusion: From Confrontation to Cooperation

The path to winding down the US-China trade war is neither simple nor quick. But the cost of continued conflict—economic fragmentation, inflation, supply chain instability—makes a truce not just desirable, but necessary. With carefully structured dialogue, incremental trust-building steps, and a long-term vision, the world’s two largest economies can pivot from decoupling to co-evolution.

The stakes are high, but so is the potential: a return to stable global growth, technological collaboration, and strategic peace.