6: Ukraine

The Incredible, World-Altering ‘Black Swan’ Events That Could Upend Life in 2025 15 futurists, foreign policy analysts and other prognosticators provide some explosive potential scenarios for the new year.

Antony Blinken: ‘China has been trying to have it both ways’ The outgoing US secretary of state on putting pressure on Beijing over Ukraine, the ‘road map’ for Syria — and why America must co-operate in order to lead ........ “We faced the worst economic crisis arguably since the Great Depression. We faced the worst public health crisis in at least 100 years. We had strong divisions at home, a challenge to our democracy, and we had very fraught relations with our closest allies and partners.” ......... Back in 2021, he says, adversaries believed the US was in “inexorable decline”. Since then, big investments at home, including in infrastructure and the domestic chip industry, in addition to intense work with allies, have changed the landscape. “We’re now operating from a position of strength.” ........ Blinken, 62, is a Francophile who speaks fluent French from his teenage years living in Paris. ........ “Iran is not in much of a position to pick a fight with anyone . . . That had real repercussions for Syria in a positive way.” ......... four Indo-Pacific countries — Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea — were invited to attend Nato summits during the Biden administration and that the transatlantic alliance now criticises China, which was previously unimaginable. He recalls how former Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida warned that “Ukraine [today] might be east Asia tomorrow”, in a veiled reference to China.  .......... I ask why Nippon Steel’s $15bn acquisition of US Steel has faced such opposition in the administration as a security threat, even though Japan is the most important US ally in Asia. ......... The presence of North Korean soldiers fighting with Russians against Ukraine has further underscored how conflicts in one region have implications for nations in other parts of the world. Giving another example, Blinken stresses that Chinese groups are still providing Russia with critical materiel to help it rebuild its defence industry base.  .......... “This is . . . powerful evidence to Europeans that the biggest threat to their security . . . is unfortunately being driven in part by the contributions of countries that are halfway around the world in the Indo-Pacific.”  ......... “China is hearing a chorus of concern from many countries” who along with the US have imposed sanctions on Chinese entities aiding the Russian war effort. ....... Blinken defends the decision to withdraw when the US did, however, saying that its adversaries wanted Washington to remain “bogged down” in Afghanistan. ........ I am also curious how he views the situation in Gaza compared to Xinjiang, where the Chinese government has detained more than 1mn Uyghurs in a persecution campaign. In his 2021 Senate confirmation hearing, he said China was committing “genocide” against the Uyghurs. Could the same conclusion not be drawn for the tens of thousands of innocent civilians in Gaza? Blinken simply says “No”. ........... he says the US has a “responsibility” to talk to Beijing despite big differences. ............ I am curious if he thinks the engagement helped reduce the odds of a conflict with China over Taiwan? “Yes,” he says emphatically. “Certainly [of an] accidental [conflict] and possibly even deliberate.” ...........

We have reason to believe that China engaged Russia [on nuclear weapons] and said: ‘Don’t go there’

.......... nuclear weapons were also one of the few issues where China may have helped the US, despite Beijing’s support for Russia. “We have reason to believe that China engaged Russia and said: ‘Don’t go there’,” he says.