Saturday, April 01, 2023

1: Big Ben



GPT-4 Is a Reasoning Engine Reason is only as good as the information we give it ......... there are at least two important components to thinking: reasoning and knowledge. Knowledge without reasoning is inert—you can’t do anything with it. But reasoning without knowledge can turn into compelling, confident fabrication. .......... Even though our AI models were trained by reading the whole internet, that training mostly enhances their reasoning abilities not how much they know. And so, the performance of today’s AI models is constrained by their lack of knowledge. .......... GPT models are actually reasoning engines not knowledge databases. .......... if you want to make an investment that indexes the success of companies building in AI as a whole, one smart move would be to invest in a vector database provider, or a basket of them. (Alternatives might be to invest in OpenAI, or a basket of large cap software companies like Microsoft and Google that build AI, or chipmakers like NVIDIA that build the GPUs that AIs run on.) ......... AI’s advancement is a raindance that calls forth capital from Patagonia vest wearing angels. ....... People have been saying that data is the new oil for a long time. ........ We tend to underappreciate the significance of the input—what information we feed it to produce those results. Its answers are largely dependent on the information we make available to it for analysis. It’s only as powerful as its starting point. .



How to avoid war over Taiwan A superpower conflict would shake the world ......... Europe is witnessing its bloodiest cross-border war since 1945, but Asia risks something even worse: conflict between America and China over Taiwan. Tensions are high, as American forces pivot to a new doctrine known as “distributed lethality” designed to blunt Chinese missile attacks. Last week dozens of Chinese jets breached Taiwan’s “air defence identification zone”. This week China’s foreign minister condemned what he called America’s strategy of “all-round containment and suppression, a zero-sum game of life and death”. ........... Is it willing to risk a direct war with another nuclear power to defend Taiwan, something it has not been prepared to do for Ukraine? And by competing with China militarily in Asia, could it provoke the very war it is trying to prevent? ........ China could use “grey-zone” tactics that are coercive, but not quite acts of war, to blockade the self-governing island and sap its economy and morale. Or it could launch pre-emptive missile strikes on American bases in Guam and Japan, clearing the way for an amphibious assault. Since Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks, any conflict could escalate quickly into a superpower confrontation. .......... a war over Taiwan could involve a new generation of arms, such as hypersonic missiles and anti-satellite weapons, causing untold destruction and provoking unpredictable retaliation ........... Taiwan is the world’s essential supplier of advanced semiconductors. America, China and Japan, the three largest economies, and among the most interconnected, would deploy sanctions, crippling global trade. America would urge Europe and its other friends to impose an embargo on China. .......... War is no longer a remote possibility .......

President Xi Jinping has told the People’s Liberation Army to be ready for an invasion by 2027, says the CIA.

.......... The military balance no longer so clearly favours America as it did in the 1990s. And public opinion has shifted in Taiwan, not least because of how China has snuffed out freedoms in Hong Kong. Only 7% of Taiwanese favour reunification. .......... Both sides are shoring up their positions and trying to signal their resolve, with destabilising consequences. ......... the mysterious severing of undersea internet cables to remote Taiwanese islands. .......... Top American and Chinese defence officials have not spoken since November. During the recent spy-balloon incident, a “hotline” failed when China did not pick up. ......... The island is admirably liberal and democratic, and proof that such values are not alien to Chinese culture. .......... A botched invasion, however, would cost Mr Xi and the Communist Party dearly. ........ The goal should not be to solve the Taiwan question, but to defer it. .......... The first 15 years of the American-Soviet cold war featured a terrifying mixture of brinkmanship and near-catastrophic mistakes, until the Cuban missile crisis prompted a revival of diplomacy...... the two rival systems must find a way to live together less dangerously.



Google Bard is about to get supercharged the current metaphorical Lebron James of large language models: GPT-4........ Training a large language model on outputs from someone else's large language model is a little like photocopying a map and calling yourself a cartographer — not a good look.



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