Friday, March 24, 2023

24: ChatGPT, GPT-4

AI Won’t Kill Our Jobs, It Will Kill Our Job Descriptions—and Leave Us Better Off
Meta’s New ChatGPT-Like AI Is Fluent in the Language of Proteins—and Has Already Modeled 700 Million of Them
Blueberries have joined green beans in this year’s Dirty Dozen list
The Operating Model of Tomorrow
Microsoft Researchers Claim GPT-4 Is Showing "Sparks" of AGI "We believe that GPT-4's intelligence signals a true paradigm shift in the field of computer science and beyond."
ELON MUSK APPARENTLY MADE A STUPID ENGINEERING DECISION THAT'S KNEECAPPED TESLA'S SELF-DRIVING PROMISES
Is GPT-4 Worth the Subscription? Here’s What You Should Know The new algorithm is exclusive to ChatGPT Plus, OpenAI’s subscriber-only service. We signed up and put it to the test.
A Radical Way of Thinking About MoneyMorgan Ricks argues that stricter regulations on “private money” can help panic-proof our financial system.
A Million Bodies Are Buried Here. Now It’s Becoming a Park. Hart Island, a potter’s field where New York City has buried its unclaimed dead for more than a century, will finally accept visitors this year.
Washington prepares for war with Amazon A multi-pronged investigation of the online giant is approaching the action phase — on mergers, antitrust, privacy and more.



ChatGPT as muse, not oracle
ChatGPT as muse, not oracle
ChatGPT Gets Its “Wolfram Superpowers”!
What Is ChatGPT Doing … and Why Does It Work?

It’s Just Adding One Word at a Time

....... applies just as well to other current “large language models” [LLMs] as to ChatGPT. ........ what ChatGPT is always fundamentally trying to do is to produce a “reasonable continuation” of whatever text it’s got so far, where by “reasonable” we mean “what one might expect someone to write after seeing what people have written on billions of webpages, etc.” .......... when ChatGPT does something like write an essay what it’s essentially doing is just asking over and over again “given the text so far, what should the next word be?”—and each time adding a word ........ it’s adding a “token”, which could be just a part of a word, which is why it can sometimes “make up new words” ....... there’s randomness here means that if we use the same prompt multiple times, we’re likely to get different essays each time ........ a simpler GPT-2 system, which has the nice feature that it’s small enough to be able to run on a standard desktop computer. ......... ChatGPT always picks its next word based on probabilities ........ There are about 40,000 reasonably commonly used words in English. ........ here’s the problem: there just isn’t even close to enough English text that’s ever been written to be able to deduce those probabilities. ......... In a crawl of the web there might be a few hundred billion words; in books that have been digitized there might be another hundred billion words. But with 40,000 common words, even the number of possible 2-grams is already 1.6 billion—and the number of possible 3-grams is 60 trillion. So there’s no way we can estimate the probabilities even for all of these from text that’s out there. And by the time we get to “essay fragments” of 20 words, the number of possibilities is larger than the number of particles in the universe, so in a sense they could never all be written down. .

Will AIs Take All Our Jobs and End Human History—or Not? Well, It’s Complicated…
Wolfram|Alpha as the Way to Bring Computational Knowledge Superpowers to ChatGPT

Ukraine war: why China’s peace road map is the only one on the table State information campaigns are driving escalation, as are increased losses on both sides ...... Normalisation will require neutral arbiters who highlight common ground, such as that offered by trade in key commodities. Currently, China is the sole remaining neutral superpower ....... War is always a tragedy. Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine shows no signs of winding down. On the contrary, it is stuck in an escalatory spiral. Nato is supplying Ukraine with increasingly powerful weapons, including tanks, and Russia is not idly waiting for a Ukrainian offensive. ........... China offered an “off-ramp” in its peace proposal .......... early attempts at a settlement in March and April last year failed. ........

Beijing offered the only peace road map on the table

........ the risks of continuing down this path for China and Asia. ......... the information campaign that began in February 2022 makes normalisation a distant prospect. As most Western institutions – from governments to business and even academia – raced to break away from Russia, the prospect of finding common ground has been significantly reduced. ......... With streets and social media covered in Ukrainian flags, the political will needed to “explain away” the conflict becomes unattainable. Escalation remains the politically acceptable option and thus sets the direction. ........ Zelensky is pushing for increased military aid daily, using channels ranging from daily video statements to trying to address the Oscars. .......... Moscow’s open information campaign has relied mostly on RT and Sputnik, which enjoy growing reach in Africa and Latin America. Messaging via state media has also been intense domestically, positioning the conflict as an increasingly existential struggle. ............ As the level of sacrifice from both sides grows, peace becomes a more distant prospect. Just as in roulette,

it’s easier to go “double or nothing” than to quit with a loss

. ........... Nato leaders are sending heavier weapons in the hope that tanks, planes or missiles will eventually snap the front line. Russia has responded in kind with long-range weaponry. ........ there are no magic weapons – more guns just cost more lives. Ukrainian soldiers have spoken of mounting losses. Russian losses are growing too but simple military arithmetic remains in Russia’s favour. ......... The risk of further escalation is of earth-shattering proportions – ............ neutral arbiters that provide common ground. Russian and US foreign ministers met in India, not in Munich. ....... trade in key commodities like grain creates some common ground which can be a starting point for interaction. Beijing stressed the importance of keeping supply chains open, avoiding unilateral restrictions, and facilitating grain exports. ........ Trade difficulties in 2022 created inflation that had a global impact just as recovery from Covid-19 was under way. Further escalation will guarantee more macroeconomic shocks. ........... the world continues to slide down a slippery slope. Despite ongoing conventional support, the front line is stable, and sentiment in Russia mirrors Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement last year that the army is “cracking [Nato weapons] like nuts”. ........ China is a neutral peacemaker. Russia is willing to seek compromise in line with Beijing’s proposals. The vector of development has been set, now the ball is in the West’s court. ........ Oleg Yanovsky is a lecturer in the Department of Political Theory at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO). .

AI Could Make More Work for Us, Instead of Simplifying Our Lives the introduction of automated processes that aim to simplify work—and free people’s time—can also make that work more complex, generating new tasks that many workers might perceive as mundane. ........ scientists were not released from repetitive, manual, or boring tasks as one might expect. Instead, the use of robotic platforms amplified and diversified the kinds of tasks researchers had to perform. ....... With automated methods, the possibilities are amplified. ....... had the effect of boosting the volume of data that needed checking, standardizing, and sharing. ........ Scientific work is often judged on output such as peer-reviewed publications and grants. However, the time taken to clean, troubleshoot, and supervise automated systems competes with the tasks traditionally rewarded in science. These less valued tasks may also be largely invisible—particularly because managers are the ones who would be unaware of mundane work due to not spending as much time in the lab. ........ challenges the assumption that everyone involved or affected by digitalization becomes more productive or has more free time when parts of their workflow are automated. ....... We also need to consider how to design and manage these processes so that technology can more positively add to human capabilities. .

OpenAI Says GPT-4 Is Better in Nearly Every Way. What Matters More Is Millions Will Use It In 2020, artificial intelligence company OpenAI stunned the tech world with its GPT-3 machine learning algorithm. After ingesting a broad slice of the internet, GPT-3 could generate writing that was hard to distinguish from text authored by a person, do basic math, write code, and even whip up simple web pages. ......... when it was founded as a nonprofit. (OpenAI reorganized as a capped-profit company in 2019.) ........ (Earlier this year, the free version of ChatGPT hit 100 million users faster than any app in history.) ........ It’s easy to imagine GPT-5 and other future models slotting into the ecosystem being built now as simply, and invisibly, as a smartphone operating system that upgrades overnight. ....... Chatbots in search, for example, may not outperform older approaches until they’ve proven to be far more reliable than they are today. And the cost of running generative AI, particularly at scale, is daunting. Can companies keep expenses under control, and will users find products compelling enough to vindicate the cost? ....... Indeed, companies are appending disclaimers warning users not to rely on them too much—like keeping your hands on the steering wheel of that Tesla. ....... millions of people may soon begin churning out presentation slides, emails, and websites in a jiffy, as the new crop of AI sidekicks arrives in force. .

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